Seasonal Climate Outlook Temperature Archive

Frequently Asked Questions

Three-month Temperature Probabilities

MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 15th March 2001

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for April to June 2001

Potentially cooler in the west

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook shows an increased likelihood for a cooler than average season in Western Australia. Through most of that state the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures for the April to June period are about 35 to 40% (see first map below).

This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 3 or 4 out of every 10 are warmer than the long-term April-June median, whilst about 6 or 7 out of 10 are cooler. In addition, the outlook skill is moderately high in W.A. for this particular season.

In other areas, the outlook chances are close to the baseline level of 50%. Also, the skill of the outlooks is high in the north of both Queensland and the N.T. but low elsewhere.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures points to cooler than average nights in parts of the Kimberley in W.A. and adjacent regions of western N.T. The second map below shows that averaged over the season, warmer than normal nights have a 35 to 40% chance of occurring in this area.

In other words, below average seasonal mean minimum temperatures are favoured with a probability of 60 to 65%. However, the outlooks have low skill in this part of the country for the April-June period.

Background Information:

  • These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
  • This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The central Indian Ocean is cooler than average, has been cooling strongly and has had the most effect on the outlook probabilities. The tropical Pacific has been warming slowly but still maintains some of the features of a weak La Niņa pattern.
  • This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
  • Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Bill Wright on (03) 9669 4781
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085.

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

probability of exceeding median 
maximum temperature - click to enlarge
Figure 1: Maximum Temperature - Click on the map for full resolution.

probability of exceeding median 
minimum temperature - click to enlarge
Figure 2: Minimum Temperature - Click on the map for full resolution.

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