MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 16^th MAY 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for Winter (June to August) 2000

Warmer than average days more likely in the south

The seasonal temperature outlook for winter shows that, the southern half of Australia has about a 60 to 70% chance of above average seasonal maximum temperatures (see first map below). In the north however, the probabilities are of the order of 35 to 45%, or in other words the chances of a cooler than normal season are around 55 to 65%.

The outlook system has moderate skill or reliability in most parts of the country for the winter season, with even higher reliability over southern Queensland and northern N.S.W.

The outlook for winter seasonal minimum temperatures is shown in the second map below. It shows that probabilities for above average overnight temperatures are close to 50% in most areas. The few exceptions are in southern Queensland and northern N.S.W. where there is an increased chance (55 to 60%), and in parts of northern and southwest Australia where the chances are reduced (40 to 45%).

For winter, seasonal minimum temperature forecasts are most reliable in southern W.A., Queensland and northern N.S.W.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The Indian Ocean remains warmer than normal close to Australia and is the main contributor to the outlooks.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or web site listed below.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
John Chataway on (03) 9669 4859
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.