MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 16th May 2001
Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for winter 2001
Warmer winter tipped for western and central areas
The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook shows an increased likelihood for warmer than average winter days across much of the western and central parts of the continent. In much of W.A., northern S.A. western NSW and southern Queensland, the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures for winter are about 60 to 65% (see first map below).
This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 6 out of every 10 are warmer than the long-term winter median, whilst about 4 out of 10 are cooler. In addition, the outlook skill is moderate over much of this area for the winter.
In other areas, the outlook chances are close to the baseline level of 50%.
The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures points to warmer than average nights in southern W.A. where the probabilities are in the 60 to 70% range (see second map below). Conversely, cooler than average nights are more likely across a broad area of tropical and eastern Australia. The chances for this are around 60 to 70%, and above average minimum temperatures are only rated at 30 to 40%.
For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 9:00am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:
Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 14th JUNE 2001.