MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 16^th May 2001

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for winter 2001

Warmer winter tipped for western and central areas

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook shows an increased likelihood for warmer than average winter days across much of the western and central parts of the continent. In much of W.A., northern S.A. western NSW and southern Queensland, the chances of above average seasonal maximum temperatures for winter are about 60 to 65% (see first map below).

This means that in years with climate patterns like the current, about 6 out of every 10 are warmer than the long-term winter median, whilst about 4 out of 10 are cooler. In addition, the outlook skill is moderate over much of this area for the winter.

In other areas, the outlook chances are close to the baseline level of 50%.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures points to warmer than average nights in southern W.A. where the probabilities are in the 60 to 70% range (see second map below). Conversely, cooler than average nights are more likely across a broad area of tropical and eastern Australia. The chances for this are around 60 to 70%, and above average minimum temperatures are only rated at 30 to 40%.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Pacific Ocean index has had the most effect on the maximum temperature probabilities, whilst the Indian Ocean index has most strongly affected the minimum temperature outlook.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 9:00am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Bill Wright on (03) 9669 4781
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085.

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 14^th JUNE 2001.

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for the past 3 months - base period 1961-1990.