MEDIA RELEASE - ISSUED 14^th SEPTEMBER 2000

Three-month Seasonal Climate Outlook Summary: Temperature probabilities for October to December 2000

Odds favour warm season in north & southeast

The National Climate Centre's seasonal temperature outlook for October-December shows increased chances for above average seasonal maximum temperatures in southeast Australia, and also the far north of the country. The highest probabilities of 75 to 80% occur in the southeast (see first map below), where the outlooks are most reliable for this time of year. The outlook system has modest skill in most other parts.

The chances are also above 60% in the northern tropics, but across W.A., central Australia, southeast Queensland and northern NSW, a warmer than average season is about a 50:50 prospect.

The outlook for seasonal minimum temperatures shows that increased probabilities are widespread across the country (see second map below), with the highest values of 70 to 80% in the southeast and far north. In other words, the odds favour warmer than average nights over much of the nation. The exception is in southern and western Queensland and northern NSW where the probabilities are near 50%. For the Oct-Dec period, seasonal minimum temperature forecasts show moderate to high skill in most areas.

For spring, seasonal minimum temperature forecasts show moderate skill in most areas apart from Tasmania, southeast Queensland, and the east of both NSW and Victoria.

Background Information:

• These outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire outlook period. Information about individual days or weeks, which may be unusually hot or cold, is not given.
• This outlook uses data from both the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Recently, the Indian Ocean has become increasingly warmer than average, whilst the Pacific temperatures have remained close to average. The Indian Ocean has had the most impact on the outlook probabilities.
• This outlook represents a summary: more detail is available from the contact people or from SILO.
• Important: Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet "The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it", available from the National Climate Centre.

The Bureau of Meteorology is hosting a workshop, CLI-MANAGE, in Albury from 23-25 October, and places are still open for anyone wishing to attend. Participants will learn, and discuss, how climate information can assist their decision-making in climate-sensitive industries, such as agriculture. For more information please contact Linda Sampson on (03) 9669 4072.

For more information regarding this outlook please contact the following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre during normal office hours from 8:45am to 5:30pm (EST) Monday to Friday:

Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527
Robert Fawcett on (03) 9669 4603
Scott Power on (03) 9669 4085

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Temperature Outlooks

Archive of previous Seasonal Climate Rainfall Outlooks

Maximum Temperature departures from average for June to August 2000 - base period 1961-1990.

Minimum Temperature departures from average for June to August 2000 - base period 1961-1990.