Australian climate is influenced by temperature patterns in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This page provides information on Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks for the coming six months based on a survey of international climate models. It is updated monthly.
Neutral ENSO conditions expected to persist
The tropical Pacific remains in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO generally remain within neutral values, despite the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) exhibiting some fluctuations over the past month (due to a localised effect from high pressure systems near Tahiti). For more details, please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.
All international models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue through the autumn and winter months, although predictions during the April to June period are known to be less skilful. Six of the seven models, expect NINO3.4 values to remain within the −0.4 to +0.4 °C range by early spring, solidly within the neutral range.
The arrows on the dials above indicate the combined average of monthly NINO3.4 outlooks from a survey of international global climate models. Note that the individual model runs vary around the average.
NINO3.4 Outlook
The NINO3.4 outlook indicates neutral ENSO conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) are likely to persist. The latest forecasts (initialised in April) from the surveyed international models predict the index will remain neutral until at least the austral spring. The most recent NINO3.4 value is +0.1°C for the week ending 14 April 2013.
The following graph shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.
NINO3.4 covers the central Pacific region.
NINO3.4 Outlook
More information:
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
The IOD index is currently neutral, with a value of 0.0°C for the week ending 14 April 2013. The IOD consensus outlook suggests neutral conditions may persist through to September. However, model outlooks increase the odds of a negative IOD event as time progresses, with 3 of the 5 models exceeding negative IOD thresholds by September.
The following graph shows the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.
IOD Outlook
More information:
Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)
POAMA, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates an eight-monthly forecast on the first day of each month. The most recent model run (started in April) predicts NINO3.4 is likely to remain neutral throughout autumn and winter. The following forecast values are for the ensemble mean.
Month 2
NINO3.4 forecast value: Unavailable
| Range | Category | Frequency distribution |
|---|---|---|
| below −0.8 °C: | (Cool) | Unavailable |
| −0.8 °C to +0.8 °C: | (Neutral) | Unavailable |
| above +0.8 °C: | (Warm) | Unavailable |
Month 4
NINO3.4 forecast value: Unavailable
| Range | Category | Frequency distribution |
|---|---|---|
| below −0.8 °C: | (Cool) | Unavailable |
| −0.8 °C to +0.8 °C: | (Neutral) | Unavailable |
| above +0.8 °C: | (Warm) | Unavailable |
Month 6
NINO3.4 forecast value: Unavailable
| Range | Category | Frequency distribution |
|---|---|---|
| below −0.8 °C: | (Cool) | Unavailable |
| −0.8 °C to +0.8 °C: | (Neutral) | Unavailable |
| above +0.8 °C: | (Warm) | Unavailable |
More information:
Model details
The models used within our survey are listed below with links to their agency homepages, model output and technical information about the model.
| Agency/Source/Provider | Latest NINO3.4 |
Latest IOD |
Model | Model run used in this survey: |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOM - Bureau of Meteorology |  View NINO3.4 data |
View IOD data |
POAMA |
Unavailable |
| ECMWF (EU) | View NINO3.4 data |
Not public | System4 | Unavailable |
| JMA | View NINO3.4 data |
Unavailable | JMA/MRI-CGCM | Unavailable |
| METEO-FRANCE | Not public | Not public | ARPEGE | 1 April 2013 |
| NASA - GMAO (USA) |  View NINO3.4 data
|
 View IOD data |
GEOS5
|
1 April 2013 |
| NOAA - NCEP (USA) |  View NINO3.4 data |
Unavailable | CFSv2 | Unavailable |
| UKMO | View NINO3.4 data |
Not public | GloSea4 | Unavailable |
Product Code: IDCKGLM000
Next update expected Unavailable
Model data are provided for Bureau of Meteorology use by the agencies detailed in the Models section. Respective agency copyright applies to these data.
