Climate Model Summary

Updated: Unavailable

Australian climate is influenced by temperature patterns in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This page provides information on Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks for the coming six months based on a survey of international climate models. It is updated monthly.


Models indicate tropical Pacific to remain well above El Niño thresholds

The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño, with weekly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) above El Niño levels for the past five weeks. The latest model outlooks suggest warming is likely to continue in the central tropical Pacific, with SSTs predicted to climb well above the El Niño threshold.

The average of the model forecasts for NINO3.4 for October 2015 is +2.4 °C. A monthly value of NINO3.4 this high has only been observed a few times since records began in 1980 (35 years); during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events.

The most recent NINO3.4 value is +1.1 °C for the week ending 17 May 2015. NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C typically indicate El Niño.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) starts to impact on Australian climate from May through to the end of spring. The latest model outlooks for the IOD index show some tendency towards a positive IOD event by late winter. Positive IOD events tend to reduce rainfall in southern and central Australia during the winter and spring months, and can exacerbate rainfall deficiencies caused by El Niño.

For more details on both ENSO and the IOD, please see the ENSO Wrap-Up.

Average of international model outlooks for NINO3.4

The average NINO3.4 value taken from 7 international models at a three month outlook
The average NINO3.4 value taken from 7 international models at a five month outlook
Graphs based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

The arrows on the dials above indicate the combined average of monthly NINO3.4 outlooks from a survey of international global climate models. Note that the individual model runs vary around the average.

More information:

NINO3.4 outlook

The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in May) indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to remain above El Niño thresholds throughout the forecast period. The average of the model forecasts for October is high at +2.4 °C; this value of NINO3.4 has only been observed on a few occasions since 1980; during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. Individual model output ranges between +1.6 and +2.9 for October; all well above the El Niño threshold.

The most recent NINO3.4 value is +1.1 °C for the week ending 17 May 2015. NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C typically occur during El Niño events.

The following graph shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.

NINO3.4 covers the central Pacific region.

NINO3.4 Outlook

Nino 3.4 2 month outlook Models information
Due to strong NINO3.4 outlooks from all models, these graphs have been modified from last month to better present the forecast data.
Graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) outlook

The IOD can impact on Australian climate during the months May to November. Current forecasts suggest a tendency towards a positive IOD by spring 2015. A positive IOD typically reduces rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can therefore exacerbate El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies.

The most recent IOD index value is +0.2 °C for the week ending 17 May 2015. Sustained IOD index values above +0.4 °C typically indicate a positive IOD event.

The following graph shows the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

IOD Outlook

These form controls display per month outlook graphs.

Latest POAMA IOD outlook Models information

Graphs based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)

POAMA, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates an eight-month forecast each fortnight. The most recent model run (started on 24 May) predicts NINO3.4 is likely to peak in July but remain above typical El Niño thresholds until at least the end of the forecast period. The following forecast values (at the top of the table) are for POAMA's NINO3.4 ensemble mean.

Month 2

NINO3.4 forecast value: Not available

Range Category Frequency distribution
below −0.8 °C: (Cool) Unavailable
  (Neutral) Unavailable
above +0.8 °C: (Warm) Unavailable

Month 4

NINO3.4 forecast value: Not available

Range Category Frequency distribution
below −0.8 °C: (Cool) Unavailable
  (Neutral) Unavailable
above +0.8 °C: (Warm) Unavailable

Month 6

NINO3.4 forecast value: Not available

Range Category Frequency distribution
below −0.8 °C: (Cool) Unavailable
  (Neutral) Unavailable
above +0.8 °C: (Warm) Unavailable

More information:

Model details

The models used within our survey are listed below with links to their agency homepages, model output and technical information about the model.

Agency/Source/Provider Latest
NINO3.4
Latest
IOD
Model Model run used in this survey:
BOM - Bureau of Meteorology View NINO3.4 data
View IOD data POAMA
Unavailable
Meteorological Service of Canada View NINO3.4 data (via IRI multi model plume) Unavailable CanSIPS Unavailable
ECMWF (EU) View NINO3.4 data Not public System4 Unavailable
JMA View NINO3.4 data Unavailable JMA/MRI-CGCM Unavailable
METEO-FRANCE View NINO3.4 data (via IRI multi model plume) Not public ARPEGE 1 April 2013
NASA - GMAO (USA) View NINO3.4 data
View IOD data GEOS5
1 April 2013
NOAA - NCEP (USA) View NINO3.4 data
Unavailable CFSv2 Unavailable
UKMO View NINO3.4 data Not public GloSea5 Unavailable

Product Code: IDCKGLM000

Next update expected Unavailable

Model data are provided for Bureau of Meteorology use by the agencies detailed in the Models section. Respective agency copyright applies to these data.