Climate outlook for April to July

Long-range forecast overview

• April to June maximum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above median except for parts of northern Australia.
• April to June minimum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above median for the north, east and west of Australia.
• April to June maximum temperatures are at least 2.5 times more likely than normal to be unusually high for most of WA, and scattered parts of the east, including Tasmania.
• April to June minimum temperatures are at least 2.5 times more likely than normal to be unusually high for much of the coastal east, southern Victoria, Tasmania and western WA and northern NT.
• April to June rainfall is likely to very likely to be below median for most of Australia. Much of the east has about an equal chance of above and below median rainfall for April to June.
• The long-range forecast is influenced by several factors, including record-warm oceans globally and a decaying El Niño. For more details, see Climate influences.

Below median April to June rainfall likely for most of Australia away from the east and south-east

• April rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be below median for WA, SA, most of the NT and western Queensland. Above median rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for eastern Victoria and southern Tasmania and parts of southeast Queensland. Most of eastern Australia has about an equal chance of above and below median rainfall.
• April to June rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be below median for most of Australia. Large areas of eastern Queensland, eastern and southern NSW, most of Victoria and Tasmania have about an equal chance of above and below median rainfall.
• The chances of unusually low rainfall for April to June is below 50% for all areas except parts of northern Australia. Unusually low rainfall is defined as the driest 20% of April to June periods from 1981 to 2018.

Warmer April to June days and nights likely for much of Australia

• For April, maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above median for western and southern WA, eastern and far-north Queensland, north-eastern NSW, and most of Tasmania. Below median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60 to 80% chance) for northern WA, most of the NT, western Queensland, eastern and southern SA, western NSW and northern and eastern Victoria.
• For April to June, above median maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for almost all of Australia, except for central NT, north-eastern inland WA, and north-western Queensland where chances of above or below median maximum temperatures are close to equal.
• For April, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for Tasmania, western WA and eastern and northern Queensland. Below median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of eastern and northern WA, most of the NT, western and northern SA, and western Queensland and NSW.
• For April to June, above median minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia, excluding the southern NT and parts of the West Coast, Flinders and North East and North West Pastoral districts in SA.
• For April to June, the southern two-thirds of Australia and far northern tropics have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures, with the chance being at 2.5 times more likely than normal for most of WA, eastern Queensland, north-east NSW and Tasmania. Unusually high maximum temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of April to June days from 1981 to 2018.
• For April to June, much of eastern and western Australia has an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures, with the chance being at least 2.5 times more likely than normal for the coastal east, southern Victoria, Tasmania, western WA and the northern NT. Unusually high minimum temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of April to June nights from 1981 to 2018.
• For April, unusually low maximum temperature are at least 2.5 times more likely than usual for much of the north-eastern WA and central NT. Unusually low maximum temperatures are defined as the coolest 20% of April to June nights from 1981 to 2018.
• For April, unusually low minimum temperature are at least 2.5 times more likely than usual for western SA, southern and western NT and eastern WA. Unusually low minimum temperatures are defined as the coolest 20% of April to June nights from 1981 to 2018.

Climate influences

The long-range forecast reflects known impacts from several significant climate influences:

• El Niño is near its end. International climate models indicate the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to ENSO-neutral by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutral in May.
• While four out of seven international models are predicting a La Niña by late winter, El Niño and La Niña predictions made in early autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is neutral. Although the latest IOD index value is above the positive threshold (+0.4 °C), this needs to be sustained for a positive IOD event to be considered underway. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April due to the presence of monsoonal activity in the southern hemisphere.
• Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been highest on record for all respective months between April 2023 and February 2024. March 2024 is on track to be the warmest March on record. The Atlantic Ocean in particular is showing exceptional and prolonged warmth in sea surface temperatures.
• Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23°C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events.

The Bureau's climate model simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice and land surface processes, and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea. These simulations enable the model to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate drivers like ENSO, IOD, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and SAM in its long-range forecasts.