Climate outlook for July to October

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for July to September shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for much of Australia especially from August, except in the south-east and west.
• Warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, except some inland areas, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures, particularly across much of the north and south.
• Warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures, particularly across northern, southern and much of eastern Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Increased chance of above average rainfall for much of Australia except the south-east and west

July to September

• Above average rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) for much of Australia, including south-east Queensland and northern NSW.
• There is a weak forecast signal for most of the south-east and west, including areas in far south-east South Australia, western and central Victoria, Tasmania and western parts of Western Australia that have been affected by prolonged dry conditions. The absence of a strong signal means there is a roughly equal chance of above, below or near-average rainfall, with no strong indication for unusually wet or dry conditions.
• There is a slightly increased chance (60 to 65% chance) of below average rainfall for small parts of Western Australia's south-west, Tasmania and central-southern Victoria.
• July to September is part of the northern Australian dry season. This is when most of tropical northern Australia typically receives very low rainfall, with average rainfall less than 10 mm for the 3 months combined.
• While above average rainfall is expected for the July to September period as a whole, it is likely that above average rainfall will occur mainly from August.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average nights very likely across most of Australia; warmer than average days likely nationwide except in some inland areas

July to September

• Above average maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia except in some central inland areas, where there is no strong indication of above or below average temperatures.
• The increased cloud cover, related to the likelihood of higher than average rainfall is likely moderating the temperature forecast in these inland areas.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ across Australia except in parts of the interior and north-east NSW. Chances exceed 70% for the far-south and north.
• Above average minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ across Australia. Chances exceed 70% for the north and south-east.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of July to September days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability of the weather. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during April 2025 were +0.62 °C above the 1991–2020 average; it was the second-warmest April on record since observations began in 1900. Since July 2024, SSTs have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month.
• For the week ending 1 June, SSTs around most of Australia’s coastlines remained up to 2 °C above average—reaching 3 °C in parts of the south-west and Tasman Sea—boosting atmospheric moisture and storm severity potential.
• Global SSTs remain substantially above average. Monthly averaged SSTs for 2025 to date have been the second warmest on record for each respective month, only slightly cooler than the record temperatures in 2024.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with models—including the Bureau’s—predicting this to continue through October. Forecast uncertainty increases beyond winter.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The Bureau and 7 of 8 international models forecast a shift to a negative IOD between July and September. However, despite international model agreement, skill for IOD forecasts made at this time of the year has been historically low beyond 2 months.