South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlook

Australian outlook

The 2014–15 tropical cyclone season has ended.

The 2015–16 outlook is scheduled for release on Wednesday 14 October 2015.

Past South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlooks

About the outlooks

This outlook is produced using statistical relationships between tropical cyclone numbers and two indicators: the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature index (NINO3.4 SST). These indicators provide a measure of the strength of the atmospheric and oceanic state, respectively.

The July, August and September SOI and NINO3.4 values were used in making the South Pacific tropical cyclone season outlook.

2013 July August September
SOI +8.1 -0.5 3.9
NINO3.4 SST -0.31°C -0.28°C -0.03°C

The current status of ENSO can be viewed via the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-up. Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have been in a neutral state since October 2012. This means that the sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific are neither La Niña nor El Niño and is therefore not driving the South Pacific region toward significantly more or fewer tropical cyclones than average. As such, the forecast is suggesting a season closer to average.

Further information