DRAFT OUTLINE OF CONTENTS, JUNE 1996

WMO - INITIATED
WORLD CLIMATE OF THE
TWENTIETH CENTURY PROJECT

PRELIMINARY DRAFT OUTLINE OF CONTENTS

SUGGESTIONS MADE AT THE EXPERT MEETING AT WMO HQ ON 3 JUNE 1996, FOR POSSIBLE COMPONENTS/TOPICS AND FORMAT/STYLE IN THE PROPOSED FOUR MAJOR SECTIONS

Note: These are based on a short brainstorming session and are not necessarily complete or in logical order. Target writing level: at or just above "National Geographic", at or just below "New Scientist".

SECTION 1. CLIMATE BACKGROUND

- What is climate
- Some similar material to chapter III of IPCC

The major thread running through this section could be Change and Variability through the Century

- Actual change and perception of change
- Climate patterns
- Variability/extremes
- How stressors have changed

	- changes in human activities
	- population changes, Movement of populations

- Change in sensitivity/adaptation
- Comparison with Previous climate (Including some paleo-data)

using the phrase "the climate you can count on" may be used to show the reality of living in a regime of considerable Climate reliability and regularity which also has inherent variability.

SECTION 2. MAJOR GLOBAL CLIMATE EVENTS/ PHENOMENA/ VARIABILITY

It was considered that impact stories (on people and all economic sectors) should be included in each of sections 2 and 3.

- Style/format for section 2: Like that of Climate system review, but more general
- El Niño (see National Geographic story in February 1984 issue as example)
- Teleconnections
- Decade time scale, e.g. Sahel
- (Section 2 or 4?) Re-emergence of climate as an issue
- Climate as a System
- Global warming/Greenhouse effect (a major issues story, set in context)
- Urban effects
- Volcanoes (general, or specific event like Pinatubo)
- Glacier retreat/advances (issues for people)
- Causes of variability (link to section 1)
- Ozone
- Environmental degradation (eg, deforestation)
- Role of oceans

SECTION 3. MAJOR REGIONAL IMPACT STORIES AND IMPACT TREND

- Climate variability (theme)
- Stories related to issues in section 2
- Regional scale
- Chosen events must fit into a climate variation or trend
- Cover economic sectors, eg:

	- Peruvian fisheries (major theme)
	- Sahel (major theme)

- 1930s Dust bowl
- Specifics on El NiÑo - different periods

	- ENSO event with a forecast (first possible in 1980s)
	- 1918 ENSO

- River basin floods
- Monsoons (good and bad years)
- Flooding in Europe (Mediterranean)
- Hurricanes/Typhoons (warning system)
- Bumper crop years ("normal" and/or "good news" years)
- Climate and wine - the vintage years
- 1962-63 winter in Europe
- Tourism
- Lessons learned

SECTION 4. WHERE IS CLIMATE NOW/ WHERE IS UNDERSTANDING NOW?

- information change

	- Satellites
	- Decrease in specification networks

- Climate models (vs weather forecast models)
- Evolution of observing networks and systems
- Predictions (seasonal)
- Climate analysis models
- Does climate still matter? (climate risk increasing/decreasing?)
- Causes of variability/change
- How was understanding climate advanced?
- Non-scientist views
- Climate as a resource
- Climate modification
- Key uncertainties (What don't we understand )
- Tone to set, end of century/start of new: Some positives and some challenges

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