WMO - INITIATED WORLD CLIMATE OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY PROJECT
Progress Report, August 1997
At its twelfth session in Geneva in June 1995, the WMO Congress
endorsed the proposal of Australia that WMO initiate a co-operative project
to publish a book tentatively entitled The Climate of the Twentieth
Century, which would "provide a century perspective on the variability of
the global climate system, on the major climate anomalies and related
impacts, and on progress made in understanding and predicting the system,
particularly in the context of climate change".
On 3 June 1996, a group of 20 climate system monitoring experts met
and embraced a proposal that WMO take the lead in a public information
initiative to inform citizens of the planet on the enormous impact of
climate on human affairs during the 20th century, the growing influence of
humans on the climate system and to expound on the progress that has been
made this century towards mitigating climate-related disasters and taking
advantage of the increasing knowledge and understanding of the climate
system. This group, which included representatives from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the European Climate
Support Network (ECSN), the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the
Climate Variability (CLIVAR) Project, further proposed that this initiative
be used as an opportunity to promote capacity building, sustainable
development and awareness of the Climate Agenda and its four thrusts.
The experts recommended that this information initiative be based
on the preparation of an eye-catching publication, in paper and electronic
format of around 200 pages. The high quality, descriptive book would be
targeted to a broad public audience at a readership level similar to those
who read the National Geographic and New Scientist magazines. It was felt
that this document would not only be valuable in its own right for
increasing the public understanding of climate issues, but will complement
the third IPCC Report expected to be issued in the year 2000. It was
further felt that the preparation of such a book be initially funded by WMO
and UN partners following the model of the very successful biennial Global
Climate System Reviews. It was further recommended that an effort be made
to attract appropriate partners, including private sector publishing,
educational and entertainment companies, to jointly support a much broader
public distribution of the information contained in the manuscript using
a variety of information technologies such as interactive CD-ROMS and
videos. Finally, it recommended the establishment of a small task group
to coordinate implementation. The Task Group is currently comprised of Mr.
Brad Garanganga, Zimbabwe; Ms Eirah Gorre-Dale, WMO Secretariat; Dr Phil
Jones, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK and
representing the ECSN; Mr David Phillips, Canada; Mr Chet Ropelewski,
Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), USA and Ms Mary Voice, Australia.
Involvement of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
(NMHSs) will be crucial to provide comprehensive coverage in various
geographic and climatic zones and examples of lifestyle/climate
interactions. All the NMHSs will be encouraged to participate.
An e-mail distribution list has been established on the WMO Internet
server (20c@www.wmo.ch) to facilitate
communication between members of the
Task Group and others who wish to be actively involved. A special Web Home
Page has also been created on the Australia Bureau of Meteorology's
Internet server which can be accessed directly
(http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20/) or indirectly through the WMO Home
Page (http://www.wmo.ch). The purpose of the Web pages are to publicize
the project and solicit input from a much broader audience. This Web
initiative included a request to this broader audience to suggest climate
events and/or related impacts that could be considered for inclusion in the
top 50 climate stories of the century.
The Presidents of Technical Commissions were informed on the status
of this project at their annual meeting in Geneva 9-11 September 1996.
They expressed their support of the project and agreed to encourage
relevant input by members of their respective commissions. They felt that
this project provided an opportunity to promote awareness and support of
the unique and valuable role that WMO plays in fostering international
cooperation in the collection of data and monitoring of the climate. It
was suggested that the basic document should contain numerous concise
climate stories, some with a human impact emphasis. It was further
suggested that some consideration be given to refocusing the publication
to express not only what has been learned about the climate of the 20th
century but also how this knowledge can benefit society in the 21st
century.
The Task Group met in Geneva from 3-5 December and developed a plan
to produce, by the end of May 1997, a draft prospectus with a mock-up to
promote the publication and attract funding. The mock-up was planned to
be a 2-page spread, built around the hydrological cycle, featuring such
topics as the contrasting floods and droughts of the century, the retreat
of glaciers and an illustration of the importance of the oceans in the
climate system as well as in the hydrological cycle. The Group also
developed a revised outline under five chapter headings, a number of themes
to be woven throughout, guidelines for authors and a production schedule
leading to a camera-ready product by the end of 1999.
Three of the Task Group members got together on the evening of 4 June
1997 at Asheville, North Carolina USA following the second day of a
WMO/GCOS/CLIVAR Workshop on Indicators and Indices for Climate Extremes to
review a draft of the prospectus and mock-up that had been prepared by Mary
Voice. In addition to providing their comments on the material, these
members of the Task Group drafted a concise descriptive version of the
table of contents (attached) that is proposed to be an integral part of the
prospectus. Additionally, they also proposed that the Task Group meet with
a science writer and representative from a potential publisher on 15 August
in Geneva, the day after the meeting of the WMO Commission for Climatology
(CCl) to help finalize the outline and prospectus. At its recent June
meeting, the 49th session of the Executive Council of WMO approved the WMO
Programme and Budget for 1998-1999. The Climate of the 20th Century
Project is identified as a high priority unfunded requirement which is
eligible for funding support through a flexibility provision.
An opportunistic meeting of several of the Task Group members took
place in Melbourne, Australia on 9 July 1997 where it was decided to move
quickly to complete a combined prospectus/mock-up. Included would be a
provisional table of contents consisting of an attention-grabbing
introductory paragraph explaining why we are documenting the climate of the
20th century followed by five "punchy" chapter titles, a concise narrative
description of what each chapter is about and a number of bullet-point
items to provide some examples of the types of specific items to be
addressed in each chapter. As soon as the prospectus/mock-up is completed,
it will be used to attract publishers' interest in co-publishing
arrangements and a possible documentary film and/or video or multi-media
spin-offs. It was recommended to approach the following publishers: Time-Life Books; National Geographic; Reader's Digest and Cambridge University
Press. It was also agreed to proceed with the proposed meeting on 15
August in Geneva and invite Mr Bill Burroughs, a renowned science writer,
to participate.
Peter Scholefield
Chief of the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme
WMO Secretariat Geneva, Switzerland
e-mail: scholefield_p@gateway.wmo.ch
31/7/97
THE WMO CLIMATE OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY PROJECT
The principal objective of the project is to publish a book of about 230
pages, comprised of more than 50% graphics, which is aimed at the high
school level (near the 13-17 year old age group) in countries worldwide.
It is expected to be attractive to a much wider audience if targeted at
this level. The book seeks to inform and challenge its audience through
a question and answer approach where possible. The book is NOT a text book
on climate physics or climatic zones of the world. However, essential
information of this type is provided where needed as well as references for
further reading at the appropriate level.
DRAFT 11/7/97
THE CLIMATE OF THE 20TH CENTURY
PROPOSED PROVISIONAL BOOK OUTLINE
Foreword
Chapter 1. What's been happening to the climate this century? (30 pages)
This chapter sets the scene by defining and giving graphic examples of
climate, climate change and climate variability. The long-term perspective
is given of recent climate in the context of climate change since the last
interglacial around 120,000 BC. Above all, we highlight why we should be
concerned about our climate and how human activity may be changing it in
the 21st century and beyond. This problem is intimately linked to the
incessant expansion of human populations and their activities and the
changing and often increasing sensitivity of societies to climate stresses.
We give examples of these stresses, essentially linked to climate
variations and extremes, and how these have changed through the century.
Chapter 2. How is the climate varying? (60 pages)
We discuss and give examples of the major influences on climate, and the
most striking climate changes or variations in the twentieth century. We
tell the story of how it was discovered that natural variations in the
Pacific Ocean dramatically impact human activities in many parts of the
world. We have also discovered that climate can vary over many decades
leading to prolonged periods of drought or storms in some parts of the
world. A unique feature of the twentieth century is the influence of humans
on the climate. This includes such factors as the influence of large cities
on their temperature to the recent discovery that human activity is
affecting the composition of the atmosphere which humans breathe. This is
leading to decreases in the protective upper atmosphere ozone layer and to
other forms of environmental degradation. Above all, the story of twentieth
century climate is that of noticeable global warming with large decadal
swings, rising sea level and the retreat of the mountain glaciers. How much
of this is natural and is mankind partly responsible?
Chapter 3. What effect has the varying climate had? (60 pages)
We highlight some of the major impacts of the twentieth century climatic
events, variations and changes, and how people have adapted, or failed toadapt. Our examples are taken from all the major climatic zones and many
major activities varying from growing food to building cities and power
stations, and protecting the environment. We particularly focus on some of
the most dramatic events or longer term changes during the century such as
the devastating drought in the Sahel. We also seek to identify how the
rapidly changing human society of the twentieth century has changed its
sensitivity to climatic stresses and how effective advancing technology has
been in mitigating these stresses.
Chapter 4. What have we learned and how can it benefit us?
(40 pages)
Although we still do not fully understand how climate varies, we show how
our knowledge and understanding of climate has significantly improved
through the twentieth century. This has come about through a prolific
expansion in measuring and monitoring climate over land and the oceans and
from a greatly improved theoretical understanding. Measurements have
improved through a pronounced expansion in climate observing networks over
land, measurements made by ships and buoys over and in the oceans, and by
satellites from space. Understanding has been dramatically improved by
mathematically modelling the climate which is now leading to an emerging
ability to project future climate changes and to predict seasonal to
inter-annual variations. The contributions of some of the great climatic
scientists of the twentieth and earlier centuries are placed in the context
of the significant climatic issues of the twentieth century - natural
variability and human-induced change.
Chapter 5. Where are we going? (15 pages)
We review current perceptions of how climate may change over the next
century if human influences on climate accelerate, noting that agreement
on this issue is by no means universal.
How can we take practical steps in the meantime to make better use of
climate as a resource? Will we be able to routinely predict future
climatic conditions? How can climate information be used to produce a
cleaner environment? What are the world's climate scientists doing to
help? What do we need to do to improve our understanding?
Annexes (10 pages)
1. Key climatic events or trends of the 20th century.
2. Significant milestones in the development of climate science and
climate services to people in the 20th century.
3. Eminent 20th century scientists in the field of climatology
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