Brendan Madden & Greg Hayes, The Virtual Consulting Group

1. Introduction

Although much of the emphasis in climate research to date has been on improving the quality and supply characteristics of climate information, recent work with dairy farmers suggests that more work needs to be done to create effective demand for such information. Effective demand requires both a felt need for the information and the capacity to use it and benefit from it. As part of a recent CVAP study, focus groups and personal interviews were conducted with a cross section of Victorian dairy farmers to examine their decision-making processes and the way that they used climate information within those processes. The study gives support to the view that the limited ability of dairy farmers to use probabilistic climate information in farm management decision making is one of the major limitations on the use of climate forecasts by Victorian dairy farmers. Unless these abilities are improved and farmers can be convinced that there are able to benefit from the use of climate information, there will be little effective demand for such information.

The farmers involved in the study demonstrated a range of abilities in using probabilities to rank the chances of an event, but even those most competent in using probabilities were not prepared to use probability-based information in management decisions. When making decisions about the forthcoming season, farmers wanted certainties in climate information and found it difficult to use uncertain information to set their direction. In effect they were saying, "I am facing a decision about just one year, which could have a major impact on my business, and not 100 years—I need to know what to do this year".

Part of the reluctance of farmers to use probabilistic climate information relates to trust and confidence in the estimates from the Bureau of Meteorology. Many of the dairy farmers involved in the study use weather information as an important tool in their tactical (day to day) decision-making. Efforts to demonstrate the reliability of weather information would help build the confidence and trust of farmers and provide a point of contact where the concept of climate information could be introduced. Weather information appears to be a very good 'hook' on which relationships, contacts and trust can be built with dairy farmers.

Although the study suggested that the first priority needs to be the creation of effective demand for climate information, it is clear that there is scope on the supply side for improving the quality of the information supplied. Dairy farmers who attempt to use climate information look for locally specific, reliable information reported in measures to which they can relate. Local rainfall probability tables expressing the chance of receiving certain amounts of rain over a season are one way of meeting this need. Dairy farmers are able to relate to this information and compare it with their past experience.

Improving the communication of climate information to dairyfarmers will clearly require a two-sided approach. Firstly demand needs to be nurtured through existing risk management programs and via linkages to weather information. Secondly, as demand grows, providers need to develop a locally specific, readily accessible supply of quality information which meets their demand.

This project was funded by the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program (CVAP).