Jacqueline Balston, QCCA, QDPI, P.O. Box 1054, Mareeba QLD 4880

(Email: balstoj@dpi.qld.gov.au Phone: (07)40484 681; Fax: (07) 40923 593)

In an age where competition for agricultural markets is played on a global scale and inputs are high, there is an increasing need to forecast and manage for the vagrancies of the weather. As part of the Queensland government commitment to reducing the risks from drought and other severe climatic conditions, the Queensland Centre for Climate Applications (QCCA) has the charter of developing and extending information on climate research and climate forecasting to the community. In this role it has developed a wide range of climate forecasts and decision support tools and services based on sound climate science and continuing research. This paper summarises the tools and services provided by the group and touches on some of the uses for this information which has come to our attention from user feedback.

Introduction

Queensland has one of the most variable climates in the world, a fact which creates stress on our resource base and disadvantages competitiveness in international rural markets.

In response to these challenges, the QCCA was formed in 1997 to enhance the climate work of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries (QDPI) and the Queensland Department of Natural Resources (QDNR). The group is based in Toowoomba with a major unit at the Indooroopilly Resource Sciences Centre and regional staff throughout the state. Work involves climate science research, crop modelling, climate impacts risk assessment and amelioration and the development and extension of decision support tools.

The group aims to improve the long-term economic viability of Queensland’s rural industries, and sustainability of the natural resource base by developing knowledge and skills to combine climatic, agricultural and resource information together to assist producers, industry and policy makers in making better climate related decisions.

The SOI Phone Hotline consists of a two-minute recorded SOI message containing information on the SOI, recent rainfall, SSTs, seasonal rainfall outlook and ENSO status, updated weekly. The Weekly Climate Note containing similar information with graphs and links to other sites is available via FarmLink and is distributed to at least 2000 readers.

A number of books and other publications have been produced including "Australian Climate/Weather Services and Use of the Information", 'Will it Rain?' and 'Understanding and forecasting the Weather' produced in conjunction with the BOM.

The ABC-TV gives a short summary of the climate outlook including the 30-day average SOI using information from the SOI Hotline each Wednesday night. Channel 7 broadcasts information on the seasonal climate outlook from QCCA each week on ‘Cross Country’. Newspaper articles produced by QCCA and relevant to Queensland rural industry is regularly published in the Rural Weekly and in the Queensland Country Life.

The Aussie GRASS project was undertaken to assess seasonal conditions in, and impacts on, pastoral areas and to help graziers, agribusiness and policy-makers make timely, profitable and sustainable management decisions. This involved the collation of information on pasture areas nationwide, the development of a pasture growth model and use of satellite images. A range of thirty-three spatial mapping products are now produced regularly for QLD, NSW, SA, WA and the Northern Territory. These include Recent Rainfall; Current Pasture Production/Condition including the density, and greenness relative to the past 40 years and Total Standing Dry Matter calculated as the amount of dried plant material present taking into account grass growth, detachment of plant material from grass plants, animal intake and the carry-over of standing plant material from previous seasons. The Fire Curing Index and Potential grassfire Risk are calculated monthly and a map of current wild-fires or ‘hotspots’ is currently being developed which will allow the amount of total standing dry matter to be reduced to zero before the next run of the pasture growth simulation model. Drought Situation Maps and Drought Exceptional Circumstances areas are also produced and are based on the situation in each local government area.

Seasonal Climate Outlook Indicators available include the average SOI, calculated daily, and variations of Sea-Surface Temperatures, Forecast Rainfall and Pasture Condition are updated monthly. Most of the Aussie GRASS products are available on the Long Paddock web site, the SOI Phone Hotline, the DPI Call Centre or in print.

DroughtPlan was a nationwide initiative aimed at developing, with graziers, profitable and sustainable strategies to manage for rainfall variability. Produced in conjunction with the Meat Research Corporation, Woolmark, CSIRO, QDNR and LWRRDC the project consists of a suite of products produced in CD ROM format.

Australian RAINMAN was developed for farmers and business and contains historical long-term daily and monthly rainfall data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology for 3700 rainfall locations and 625 temperature, humidity, evaporation locations throughout Australia. Analyses include the display of historical rain data in tables, graphs or maps the chance of daily, monthly and seasonal rain and the use of the SOI & SST to forecast seasonal rain and daily rainfall events or dry periods. Other analyses include effective rainfall, frequency of major, extended and seasonal droughts and the chances of frost, heat-waves and planting opportunities. The program is Windows based with data and maps easily updated via the Internet.

APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) is a cropping systems model which simulates plant growth and potential yield in response to environmental conditions and management by calculating the soil water and nitrogen balance on a daily basis from daily rainfall, temperature and solar radiation. It does not take in to account losses due to pest, disease or harvest. Crops in the major cropping regions of Queensland and northern NSW which have been simulated include sorghum, mungbeans, cotton, maize, sunflowers, peanuts, wheat, chickpeas and barley.

Whopper Cropper is a database of pre-run APSIM simulations with an easy-to-use graphical interface that enables users to graph simulated yields in a variety of ways. The database can be used to explore ‘What if’ questions including which crop to sow, when to show, how much nitrogen to apply, which variety to sow and at what density. It also allows the analysis of different starting conditions and seasonal forecasts.

FARM is a Microsoft Excel^® spreadsheet budget suitable for comparing continuous cropping and ley cropping systems on mixed farms. It has been developed to allow simple comparison of crop sequences.

COMPARE is a Microsoft Excel^® spreadsheet model that compares farming systems through time. It includes the effects of inter-annual variations in yields, discount rates and yield, and compares trends. It can also quickly compare the distribution of economic outcomes for different sets of yield and price assumptions.

Choices Choices is a Windows program which enables easy comparisons of average gross margins for crop sequences or rotations. It is ultimately flexible, but requires the user to have a good understanding of yields and inputs for various crops.

HOWWET? is a Windows based computer program produced as an learning tool as well as an method of estimating water storage and nitrogen mineralisation during a fallow period. It uses farm rainfall records to track daily evaporation, runoff and soil moisture. Accumulation of available nitrogen in the soil is calculated based on soil moisture, temperature, soil type and years of cultivation.

HOWOFTEN? is a simple program for examining historic rainfall records to find how often a specified rainfall sequence occurred. For example, how many times was a planting rain recorded at a particular location in the last 40 years?

HOWMUCH? is a simple crop model for yield prediction and uses the concept of water use efficiency based on the French Shultz model. It is general for any crop as long as the user has some estimate of rainfall effectiveness and transpiration efficiency. The 3 "HOW" programs are available from the APSRU web site.

PERFECT (Productivity, Erosion and Runoff Functions to Evaluate Conservation Techniques) is a daily time step model that simulates the plant-soil-water-management dynamics in an agricultural system. It simulates the major effects of management and environment to predict runoff, soil loss, soil water, drainage, crop growth and yield and nitrogen effects.

Computer tools developed in the DroughtPlanProgram include:

BB-SAFe (Buy/Breed-Sell/Agist/Feed evaluator) which allows users to compare the costs of different stock reduction and build up options on their grazing business either on a paper work-sheet or in a spreadsheet. GrazeOn (Pasture Budgeting for Better Grazing Management) developed for Mitchell grass areas to help graziers decide potential short-term stock numbers for periods of three months to two years. The Pasture Supply and Demand Evaluator developed for assessing nutrition of beef cattle on spear grass in central Queensland. The Carrying Capacity Evaluator links property productivity models with manager expectations in a community-owned approach to assessing safe long term stocking rates. WinGRASP is a pasture production database that collates factors which influence production of all major pasture communities in QLD and native pastures in other parts of Australia including a probability assessment of how El Nino may affect pasture production.

Computer tools developed by the AussieGRASS project include:

GRASP, a complex model containing modules on soil-water, grass growth and animal production (sheep and cattle) developed for and so far tested, at specific points within tropical and sub-tropical grasslands. Aridgrow, a simple water balance and plant growth model for use in the range-lands of central Australia. Grassgro, a complex model from the Grazplan group of software packages developed for use on improved pastures. Images, developed in WA specifically for chenopod shrublands and Seesaw developed for mulga shrubland communities to account for runoff-run-on of surface water at a simplistic level and simulates dynamic shrub growth.

Managing for Climate - Climate and Weather is the first in a series of one day Managing for Climate workshops, first run in 1994 and now completed by over 2000 participants. It covers weather and climate systems including surface and upper level systems, El Nino and La Nina patterns, the measurement of weather and climate variables, seasonal and weather forecasting and much more. Run by a meteorologist from the BOM and a climatologist from the QCCA the day concludes by looking at decisions that are affected by weather and climate variability and how to reduce risks.

Managing for Climate – Cropping assists participants in applying climate and seasonal forecasting information to cropping decisions, and addresses questions such as crop type, area to plant, planting density, fertiliser application strategies and sowing date. Participants are encouraged to consider other factors that will impact on their decisions including stored soil moisture, financial position, crop rotation and weed management. Seasonal forecasting, the SOI and the current seasonal outlook are explained and possible management options explored. Tools including Australian RAIMAN and Whopper Cropper are used.

Managing for Climate – Grazing addresses the management of livestock around climate variability and discusses the risks associated with livestock production. Probabilities and how they are used in risk management, climate science and the use of seasonal climate forecasting for decision making are covered and the day finishes with a discussion on methods for minimising the impacts of drought.

Assessing Your Livestock Management Options is a set of workshop materials using the DroughtPlan products BB-SAFe, GrazeOn and the Pasture Supply and Demand Calculator. The workshop aims to make the act of choosing between tactical grazing management alternatives a familiar, regular event.

Assessing Pastoral Situation is a one day Aussie GRASS workshop aimed at personnel involved in the pastoral industry of QLD, NSW, SA, WA and the NT. To date 23 workshops have been run around Australia with approximately 300 participants. The focus is to improve production and land management decisions affected by climate by creating an awareness of the Aussie GRASS Project and the range of products/tools available.

Develop Climate Risk Management Strategies is an accredited course available through the vocational education system and QCCA provided support in developing the home study unit ‘Weather and Climate in Farming’ available through NSW Agriculture.

Research carried out by QCCA indicates that the information and tools provided are being used in making climate-related decisions. In the first year on the web the Long Paddock site received 40,000 hits to individual products indicating a substantial interest in climate forecasting and decision support.

Products from the Aussie GRASS project are now regularly used by drought policy officers in Queensland and many graziers have used the information to sell stock, purchase feed or animal supplements, plan grazing programs, sow pastures, control woody weeds, estimate operating costs or even decide whether to replace an old fence.

Producers in cropping regions have used information to make decisions on crop area and type, irrigation schedules, fertiliser and herbicide regimes, estimate crop yields and cash flow, decide wether to buy new equipment or diversify into a new venture.

Awareness of climate variability and the impacts appears to be increasing in response to the work of QCCA and others, however, with increasing pressure on the rural community to manage the land base sustainably, and the need to maintain productivity in light of declining prices, our task is far from over. The QCCA in collaboration with others continues to research climate patterns affecting Australia including the latitude of the hight pressure belt, the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and long-range decadal patterns in the Pacific Ocean. The development of climate extension tools and services continues with the development of a range of educational modules including a ‘Bachelor of Science (Climatology) through the University of Southern Queensland (commencing in 2001). In collaboration with the University of Queensland, the Gatton Campus will offer applied climatology courses also commencing in 2001 at the Graduate Certificate, Graduate Diploma and Master of Agricultural Studies levels. A Climate Change workshop is also being developed in collaboration with the BOM, Australian Greenhouse Office, and others with the aim of facilitating an understanding of greenhouse issues and methodologies for adaptive change.

It is, however, important that future work is steered in a direction which provides the most support for, and addresses the key needs of, producers and industry as a whole. To this aim ongoing feedback and input from users in the community is considered an essential component.

Paull, C.J; Peacock, A. (1999) Australian Climate / Weather Services and Use of the Information. Queensland Centre for Climate Applications, Indooroopilly, QLD 4068.

Colin J. Paull (2000) Aussie GRASS Workshop Manual, Queensland Centre for Climate Applications, Indooroopilly, QLD 4068.