CSIRO Impacts and Adaptation Working Group
Kevin Hennessy, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Private Bag No. 1, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 (kevin.hennessy@dar.csiro.au); Ph: 03 9239 4536; Fax: 03 9239 4444
Summary
The CSIRO Impacts and Adaptation Working Group (IAWG) brings together a complex and disparate range of climate-related applications. We address:
Climate is a primary driver of major variations in the profitability of Australia’s $30 billion agriculture industries. Weather extremes also damage urban infrastructure, disrupt water supplies, increase bushfire risk and have many other impacts such as those on human health. The IAWG attempts to deliver focussed information to decision-makers in these diverse systems that will enhance their capacity to manage effectively. This is achieved through the inclusion of climate science in the systems analysis. Examples include applying seasonal climate forecast information to agricultural production and natural resource management. We also have a decade of experience in greenhouse impact assessments.
CSIRO’s balance of strategic and applied research provides diverse and multi-disciplinary skills in climate science and impacts, bio-physical systems modelling and knowledge of key sectors. The IAWG aims to deliver in five priority research areas:
Key in advancing the research will be the development of rapidly evolving technologies:
The IAWG thus brings together a complex and disparate range of climate-related applications in a cohesive framework. We address:
2. IAWG activities
The IAWG consists of over 60 key scientists and draws on many more years of experience across nine CSIRO Divisions: Animal Production, Atmospheric Research, Building Construction and Engineering, Entomology, Forestry and Forest Products, Land and Water, Marine Research, Plant Industry, and Sustainable Ecosystems.
Over the past ten years, we completed 80 collaborative studies on the impacts of climate change due to greenhouse warming. Projects from 1990-1997 are summarized at http://www.dar.csiro.au/div/ccrp_collaboration.htm. The IAWG is currently producing new climate scenarios for Australia out to the year 2100, and a report covering climate change impact assessments for agriculture and natural ecosystems, water resources, urban settlements, pests and diseases, and health.
We also have significant experience with climate impact assessments related to variability on seasonal to yearly timescales. Since this is the primary focus of the CliManage 2000 workshop, the IAWG presentation will concentrate on capabilities in seasonal to yearly impacts rather than decadal-scale greenhouse impacts.
3. Selected IAWG capabilities
3.1 Oceans to farms
The "Climate Variability in Agriculture R&D Program" (CVAP) supports a project called "From Oceans to Farms: Integrated Management of Climate Variability", involving Queensland Centre for Climate Applications, Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO Marine Research, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, and CSIRO Atmospheric Research.
Project Objectives are (a) determine a set of industry-targeted climate prediction indices for specific agricultural regions across Australia; (b) optimise forecasts in farming production / economics models for the extensive grazing, dryland grains and sugar industries; and (c) assess the production, economic and resource-based value of these systems compared to current best-practice in the absence of climate forecasts.
Outputs will be (i) full analysis of user forecast needs for different industries in different regions of Australia; (ii) development of indices more relevant to agricultural production than rainfall for assessing the value of forecasts; (iii) significant improvement in the animal production and vegetation change components of models used for assessing the value of forecasts in extensive grazing lands; and (iv) assessment of the production, economic and resource value of newer, longer-lead forecasts for selected grazing and dryland cropping regions of Australia.
The project will address the issue of the agricultural industry’s self-reliance in the face of climatic variability. Specifically, it will seek to contribute to reducing interannual variability in profitability, reducing hardship in poor years and increasing profitability in good years. Use of forecasts should also lead to improved sustainability by reducing soil erosion and preventing undesirable vegetation change.
Contact Dr Andrew Ash, CSIRO Tropical Agriculture, Davies Laboratory, Private Mail Bag, Aitkenvale, Qld, 4814, Ph. 07 4753 8540, Email: andrew.ash@tag.csiro.au
3.2 DroughtPlan and Land Use Change in Northern Australia (LUCNA)
These studies aim to develop an understanding of the relative significance of productivity, price and policy drivers in affecting management adaptation and enterprise-level economic outcomes in different regions of the rangelands.
The DroughtPlan project provided enterprise-level descriptions of the grazing industry in most major regions of the rangelands. The LUCNA project took four regions of northern Australia and carried out a comprehensive sensitivity analysis, with respect to the effects of changing climate and CO2 levels, as well as a variety of grass productivity and grass/tree balance scenarios for each region, changes in markets and possible policy-related costs. Other studies have extended this understanding across all parts of the rangelands.
Planned studies are less oriented at climate change, being directed by taxation policy priorities and analysis of the use of forecasting in a variable climate. However, these all feed into a new area of regional predictive modeling that will seek to integrate economic, social and environmental outcomes. Existing data collection and modeling have concentrated on the grazing industry as the main option for extensive land use, but the new work will integrate other land uses.
Contact Dr Mark Stafford Smith, CSIRO Wildlife and Ecology, PO Box 2111, Alice Springs, NT, 0871, Ph. 08 8950 7162, Email markss@dwe.csiro.au
3.3 Coastal zone
CSIRO Atmospheric Research and CSIRO Building, Construction and Engineering have developed an integrated modelling system to examine the effect of extreme rainfall events on coastal urban areas. The modelling system entails coupling a high-resolution atmospheric model with a storm surge and inundation model, and with a flood event model suitable for use in urban areas. By integrating these modelling tools with Geographic Information Systems, the physical modelling results can be transferred into relevant frameworks for applications to a range of problems. These include residential evacuation strategies, long and short-term damage to housing and businesses, insurance exposure, building design guidelines and material selection, disruption of transport networks and detrimental effects on human health.
Contact Dr Debbie Abbs, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195, Ph. 03 9239 4536, Email debbie.abbs@dar.csiro.au
3.4 Agribusiness
The CSIRO Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU) has demonstrated that farmers can utilise information derived from climate forecasts and simulation models in interpreting past experience, planning and decision making.
One of APSRU’s main tools is the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) - a modelling environment with component modules to simulate cropping systems. Modules can be biological, environmental, managerial or economic and are linked via the APSIM "engine". APSIM can simulate the growth of crops in response to a variety of management practices, crop mixtures and rotation sequences, including pastures and livestock. APSIM can simulate long-term trends in soil productivity due to fertility depletion and erosion. The model accounts for 87% of observed variation over 59 crops. APSIM can be used in crop management based on expected yield and risk from a knowledge of pre-plant soil water, soil chemical analysis and seasonal climate predictions. About ten crop loss assessments have been made for insurance firms over the past 18 months. APSIM contributed to a negotiated settlement claim in more than half of these cases.
To find out more about APSRU see http://www.farmscape.tag.csiro.au or contact Dr Peter Carberry, CSIRO Tropical Agriculture, PO Box 102, Toowoomba, Qld, Ph. 076 881 377, Email peter.carberry@tag.csiro.au.
3.5 Sugar industry
The Australian sugar industry is worth $2 billion per annum to Australia’s export income. The impact of climate on sugarcane production system at farm-level can be considered in terms of three aspects. Firstly, climate directly determines the processes of yield accumulation and the amount of sugar produced. Secondly, climatic conditions control the development and spread of fungal diseases, insects, pests and weeds which can restrict crop growth. Thirdly, climate sets the potential for runoff and deep drainage with possible environmental impact associated with the movement of nutrients and pesticides. Hence, at farm-level, seasonal climate forecasting has an important role in improving yields and ecological sustainability of sugarcane production provided it can be integrated into the farm management system.
Sugarcane industries comprise an integrated value chain where climate also affects harvesting and transport, milling, and marketing and shipping sectors. The most appropriate climate forecasting system for tactical and strategic management is very much dependent on what decision point and what industry sector is being targeted.
CSIRO leads a CVAP-supported project called "Seasonal climate forecasting to improve sugar industry competitiveness". This will integrate seasonal climate forecasting with management strategies to benefit sugar industries by:
Contact Dr Russell Muchow, CSIRO Tropical Agriculture, Private Bag 3, Indooroopilly, 4068, Qld, Ph. 07 3214 2253, Email russell.muchow@tag.csiro.au.