Peter Whetton, CSIRO Atmospheric Research, peter.whetton@dar.csiro.au, Phone: 03 9239 4535; Fax: 03 9239 4444)

In the decades to come, changes in Australia’s climate can be expected as a consequence of continuing increases in emissions of greenhouse gases. Increasing temperature, as well as changes in other climatic variables, such as precipitation and evaporation will occur. Human and natural systems will need to adapt to this changing climate. Estimates of regional climate are required to allow this adaptation to be planned, so that society can maximise the benefits and minimise the costs of climate change.

The primary source of information available to scientists for estimating possible future climate are the results obtained from global and regional climate models run under scenarios of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. CSIRO is currently analysing the Australian regional results of the latest greenhouse experiments run with CSIRO climate models and those of a range of other research centres. This analysis will contribute to a new summary statement on Australian region climate change which will be released in late 2000.

Preliminary results from this analysis will presented at the meeting. Model-simulated patterns of change in rainfall, temperature and potential evaporation will be presented and some indication will be given of changes in various extreme climatic events. The presentation will also highlight key sources of uncertainty in projecting future climate change and methods which can be adopted for managing this uncertainty while planning for the future.