Current POAMA Forecasts

ENSO forecasts from POAMA

Issued 20 November 2009 - updated daily.

Introduction

The outlooks presented here are generated by the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamic computer model of the climate system run at the Bureau of Meteorology. The outlooks are model forecasts of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation. They are included in the monthly model summary of predictions from POAMA and other models operated by international organisations. Indian Ocean Dipole forecasts are also given here.

These results come from the latest operational version of POAMA (1.5b). POAMA is run each day and gives forecasts out to nine months ahead. Probabilities are based on the range of predictions from the most 30 recent daily forecasts of POAMA. The probability distributions shown here provide a range of possible developments in sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO regions) and for the Indian Ocean. More detailed information about the model is available on the official POAMA page.

POAMA forecasts from 21/10/2009 - 19/11/2009:

Nino34 predictions for the next 9 months. Other Indices:

Nino34 probabilities from POAMA forecasts 21/10/2009 - 19/11/2009:

Click on the dates below to see SST frequency distributions and spatial pattern

Outlook for:	Dec 2009	Jan 2010	Feb 2010	Mar 2010	Apr 2010	May 2010	Jun 2010
Mean Temperature (°C)	1.74	1.87	1.78	1.53	1.28	1.08	0.92
Model cool frequency (<−0.8°C)	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Model neutral frequency	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.3%	13.3%	36.7%
Model warm frequency (>+0.8°C)	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	96.7%	86.7%	63.3%