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Product Code: IDCKGEA000
| El Niño Event | Strength as measured by SOI and sea surface temperatures |
Impact in Australia | Rainfall Decile Map Loops |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002/03 | SOI: Weak SST: Weak to Moderate |
This weak to moderate El Niño event had a very strong impact in Australia. The major 2002-03 drought had rainfall deficiencies over the period March 2002 to January 2003 that ranked in severity and areal extent with the extreme droughts of 1902 and 1982-83. Practically all parts of the country were affected, and in southern areas this exacerbated the effects of several preceding years of dry conditions. The extreme dryness coincided with exceptionally warm conditions: maximum temperatures averaged Australia established new records in each of the seasons autumn, winter and spring by a wide margin for the post-1950 era. Severe bushfires in eastern NSW, Canberra, and the mountains of southeast NSW and eastern Victoria, and widespread water shortages, were some of the main effects. Widespread above to very much above average falls occurred in February 2003 raising hopes of a consistent period of wet weather to erase the effects of severe drought. However, this was not to be. Totals for the remainder of 2003 were insufficient in many areas to overcome existing rainfall deficiencies - especially in parts of Queensland and southeast Victoria where 2003 was another rather dry year. | Monthly: March 02 - April 03 Seasonal: Autumn 02 to Autumn 03 |
| SST: March 02-May 03 |
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| 1997/98 | SOI: Strong SST: Very Strong |
Over the 12 months from April 1997 to March 1998, below average totals occurred across Victoria, east and north Tasmania, central & east NSW, eastern sub-tropical Queensland & southwest W.A. Overall the impact would be classed as weak with crops benefiting from widespread falls in both May and September. Southern and eastern Victoria were the worst affected with much of the region having falls among the driest 10% on record for the 12 months. Rainfall was consistently above average in eastern Australia from April 1998 onwards. | Monthly: March 97 - April 98 Seasonal: Autumn 97 to Autumn 98 |
| SST: March 97-June 98 |
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| 1994/95 | SOI: Strong SST: Weak to moderate |
Over the 10 months from March to December 1994, rainfall was in the lowest 10% of totals across most of Qld, NSW, Vic, S.A., NE Tas and southern W.A. Falls were also below average over the southern half of the N.T. and much of W.A. So the impact would be described as strong. Average to above average falls fell in parts of eastern Australia (especially NSW) in November and December, and then very heavy rain and flooding occurred over inland NSW, SW Qld and northern Vic in January effectively ending the event. However, there was another period of below average rain from Feb-Apr 1995 before higher falls became re-established. | Monthly: March 94 - April 95 Seasonal: Autumn 94 to Autumn 95 |
| SST: August 94 - March 95 |
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| 1993/94 | SOI: Moderate SST: Weak |
Not a "classic" event by any stretch of the imagination. Despite the SOI staying in moderate negative values until October, the ocean signal was weak except for April and May 1993. The effect was very weak with above average falls occurring over eastern Australia in July, October, November, and December 1993, and then again in Feb 1994. In fact, it was so wet that large parts of NSW and Vic recorded totals in the highest 10% of records for the 6 months from Jul-Dec 1993. Against this though, it was a poor wet season in eastern and northern Queensland, particularly the 3 months from Dec-Feb. | Monthly: March 93 - April 94 Seasonal: Autumn 93 to Autumn 94 |
| SST: February 93 - August 93 |
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| 1991/92 | SOI: Moderate
to strong SST: Moderate to strong |
A strong effect over Queensland with about three-quarters of the state recording decile 1 rainfall totals for the 9 months from March to November 1991. It was the driest such period on record in parts of the Darling Downs. The northern half of NSW was also seriously affected with about half this region in decile 1 for the nine months. Further south totals were average to above, although the seasonal distribution was very uneven. In Victoria, southern NSW, and much of Tasmania, a very dry autumn was followed by a wet June-Sept period and then more below average falls in Oct-Nov. Above to very much above average rain fell in December over SE Qld and the eastern half of NSW marking the beginning of the end of this event in these regions. Although falls were patchy in January 1992, heavy rain fell again in February, particularly in the southeast of Queensland and NSW. In the tropics though, totals were consistently below average from November through to April with many areas of W.A., N.T., and north Qld recording decile 1 falls for the 6 months. | Monthly: March 91-April 92 Seasonal: Autumn 91 to Autumn 92 |
| SST: March 91-June 92 |
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| 1987/88 | SOI: Moderate
to strong SST: Moderate to strong |
Generally weak with mainly average to above average falls in Victoria, NSW and Queensland during the 9 months from May 1987 to January 1988. Northern and eastern Tasmania, pockets of Gippsland and the southwest corner of W.A. fared rather worse with totals in the lowest 10% for the 7 months from Apr-Oct 1987. It was also a poor wet season over Cape York and northwest Queensland with decile 1 totals for the 6 months from Oct 1987 to March 1988. | Monthly: March 87-April 88 Seasonal: Autumn 87 to Autumn 88 |
| SST: September 86 - February 88 |
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| 1982/83 | SOI: Very
strong SST: Very strong |
A very strong impact on Australia with drought conditions
widepsread across eastern and southern Australia. Below average
rainfall patterns were established in April 1982 and continued
almost unabated up to and including February 1983 when southern
Australia experienced heat-wave conditions and bushfires that
culminated in the Ash Wednesday disaster. For the 11 months from
Apr 82 to Feb 83 virtually all of the eastern two-thirds of the
country recorded rainfall totals within the driest 10%. In fact,
the vast bulk of Victoria, the southern halves of both NSW and
South Australia, together with large tracts of central and western
Qld recorded record low falls for this particular 11-month
period. The pattern changed abruptly in March 1983 when flood rains in central and southern Australia heralded several months of above average rainfall across much of the country. |
Monthly: March 82-April 83 Seasonal: Autumn 82 to Autumn 83 |
| SST: March 82 - October 83 |
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| 1977/78 | SOI: Moderate SST: Weak |
A moderate to strong impact, but of fairly short duration. For the six months from June to November, most of NSW, the southern half of Queensland, patches in northern Victoria and northern Tasmania, and scattered regions in both W.A. and S.A. recorded rainfall totals in the driest 10% for that 6-month period. Most remaining areas in these states, with the exception of S.A., registered below average falls. Above average rain in January eased the situation in eastern Australia, but for the nine months from June 77 to February 78, decile 1 totals were registered in northern Victoria, southern and far western NSW together with the northeast corner of that state, and SE Queensland. | Monthly: March 77-April 78 Seasonal: Autumn 77 to Autumn 78 |
| 1972/73 | SOI: Moderate SST: Moderate to strong |
Drier than average weather became established in the southern areas
in March 1972, and apart from a brief respite in August, continued
to the end of the year. Overall the impact would be classed as strong.
For the ten months from
March to December 1972, rainfall totals were
in the driest 10% of records (decile 1) over the majority of Victoria,
S.A., southern W.A., north and east Tasmania, western and southern NSW, and
far southwest and central Queensland. Above average falls occurred in January, followed by widepsread above average to record falls in February, thereby ending the drought and heralding the wettest two-year period in Australia's history. |
Monthly: March 72-April 73 Seasonal: Autumn 72 to Autumn 73 |
| 1969/70 | SOI: Weak SST: Weak |
In this case, weak indicators lead to a weak effect through the
region of eastern Australia most commonly affected. There were some dry months between
June 1969 and February 1970 (notably June and October in Victoria), but
for this 9-month period decile 1 totals were mainly confined to some of the
border regions between S.A. and each of Victoria, NSW and Queensland.
Parts of the Eyre Peninsula and southwest W.A. also had totals in the
driest 10% of falls. However there was a strong impact across most remaining parts of W.A. together with some adjacent regions in eastern N.T. These areas recorded decile 1 or record low falls for the nine months from June '69 to Feb '70, but it is more than likely that an additional influence unrelated to El Niņo was crucial to the development of this rainfall anomaly. |
Monthly: March 69-April 70 Seasonal: Autumn 69 to Autumn 70 |
| 1965/66 | SOI: Moderate
to strong SST: Moderate |
The overall impact was moderate. Over the 9-month period from
March to November 1965, rainfall was below average across most of
NSW and S.A., the southern half of Queensland, southern N.T. and patches
in both Victoria and Tasmania. The most seriously affected region was a
large area straddling the NSW/Qld border stretching from near Longreach in
the north to Dubbo in the south. Totals here were in decile 1 for the
nine months with a few patches of lowest on record. Above average totals occurred in August over S.A. and southern NSW, but it wasn't until December 1965 that some relief came for the worst affected area with above to very much above average falls. However, the relief was short-lived as conditions were generally drier than average right up until July 1966 causing a large part of NSW and southern Queensland to be in decile 1 for the 17 months (March 1965 to July 1966). This was depsite a rise in the SOI and a return to neutral Pacific sea-surface temperatures, thus suggesting a mechanism apart from El Niņo. |
Monthly: March 65-April 66 Seasonal: Autumn 65 to Autumn 66 |
| 1963/64 | SOI: Weak SST: Weak |
This event seemed to develop a little later than is typical, with the main
period of dryness being over the relatively short period from
September 1963
to March 1964. During this 7-month period the impact was weak across
the Murray-Darling Basin, the most commonly affected area, but strong
over regions further west. However, because this affected region was
unusual, there is a strong probability that other influences helped to
cause the anomalously low rainfall. These seven months were exceptionally dry across S.A., the southern half of the N.T., eastern W.A. and the western fringes of Victoria and NSW. Large parts of western S.A. and southeast W.A. had record low falls for the period. |
Monthly: March 63-April 64 Seasonal: Autumn 63 to Autumn 64 |
| 1957/58 | SOI: Weak SST: Weak to moderate |
The overall impact was moderate to strong with most of the southern
half of the continent being drier than average, including extensive parts
of NSW, S.A. and W.A. that were in decile 1 for the nine months from
March
to November 1957. Parts of central NSW and W.A. registered their lowest rainfall
on record for this 9-month period. May and the spring months were particularly dry, but falls were more patchy in winter with some above average regions in NSW and Victoria. Tasmania and western Victoria though, were drier than average in winter with record low falls in the Apple-Isle. |
Monthly: March 57-April 58 Seasonal: Autumn 57 to Autumn 58 |
| 1951/52 | SOI: Weak SST: Weak |
The overall impact was strong with most of the northern two-thirds
of the country recording below to very much below average rainfall.
For the 12 months from March 1951 to February 1952, rainfall
totals were in decile 1 over nearly all of Queensland, the northern half of the N.T.,
as well as scattered parts of northern NSW, S.A. and W.A. Large areas in
northern Queensland and the N.T. had record low falls for this
particular 12-month period. Rainfall was average to above average in Victoria and southern S.A., particularly between April and August when 5-month totals were in decile 10 or the highest on record. |
Monthly: March 51-April 52 Seasonal: Autumn 51 to Autumn 52 |
| 1946/47 | SOI: Weak to moderate SST: N/A |
A strong impact over eastern and northern Australia with most of
NSW, Queensland, and the north of the N.T. registering decile 1 falls
for the 10 months from April 1946 to January 1947. A large region in
the central-west of Queensland experienced record low totals
for this particular 10-month period. Large parts of S.A., Victoria,
and W.A. were also drier than average. Areas of below average rainfall first became evident over Queensland in autumn and gradually spread southwards. However, there were some months when the dry spell was eased by useful rains - most notably across Victoria in July and the NSW/Qld border areas in September. Average to above average falls were also prominent in November and December. The pattern was broken in February 1947 when widespread heavy rain fell in the worst affected areas. Good follow-up falls also occurred in March. |
Monthly: March 46-April 47 Seasonal: Autumn 46 to Autumn 47 |
| 1941/42 | SOI: Strong SST: N/A |
The overall impact was moderate to strong, particularly in
NSW which was mainly in decile 1 for the 10 months from
April 1941
to January 1942. The southern tier of Queensland was similarly
affected, as was Cape York in the far north of the State. The east and
north of both Victoria and Tasmania were drier than average during
this 10-month period with decile 1 falls in some areas. The pattern began to change in February 1942 with a return to average falls or higher for the period up to mid-winter, although April 1942 was a dry month across the eastern half of NSW. |
Monthly: March 41-April 42 Seasonal: Autumn 41 to Autumn 42 |
| 1940/41 | SOI: Strong SST: N/A |
The overall impact was strong, although the period that was
characterised by anomalously low rainfall was a little shorter than
that which occurred with many other events. For the nine months
from March to November 1940
inclusive, most of the country recorded
below average rainfall, the main exceptions being parts of eastern and
northern Queensland and some areas in the N.T. There were vast areas
where falls were in decile 1, and this includes the above average rainfall
that fell in April in NSW, Victoria and central Australia. For the shorter
7-month period beginning in May,
one-half to two-thirds of the country
recorded decile 1 rainfall totals. Above average rainfall in eastern NSW and southeast Queensland in December heralded a change in the pattern. January 1941 was an excpetionally wet month over eastern Australia with decile 10 falls covering nearly all of Victoria and NSW, much of the southern half of Queensland and the eastern half of S.A. Highest on record totals occurred in each state. March 1941 was another wet month and above average falls continued in the tropics until June. |
Monthly: March 40-April 41 Seasonal: Autumn 40 to Autumn 41 |
| 1925/26 | SOI: Moderate SST: N/A |
The impact would be classed as strong, but the main area
affected was somewhat to the west of that most commonly
influenced. For the 12 months from
March 1925 to February 1926,
most of eastern and central Australia had below average falls
with decile 1 to lowest on record values across most of Tasmania,
Victoria, northern S.A., southern N.T. and far western Queensland. There was quite a deal of month to month variation in the rainfall patterns with May and June 1925 being wet or very wet over parts of eastern and central N.S.W. Other useful falls to occur during the period occurred as follows: July 1925 in East Gippsland, August 1925 in southeast Queensland, September 1925 in southeast S.A. and November 1925 across northern N.S.W. October, December and February were particularly dry over large areas. With the exception of Tasmania and western Victoria, the dry weather pattern was broken by widespread and heavy rain in March and April 1926. |
Monthly: March 25-April 26 Seasonal: Autumn 25 to Autumn 26 |
| 1919/20 | SOI: Weak to moderate SST: N/A |
A classic event in terms of impact with strong rainfall
deficits over the Murray-Darling Basin, Tasmania, western
Victoria and the southeast of S.A. for the 15 months from
March 1919 to May 1920.
Most of these areas recorded falls in decile 1 with areas of
lowest on record featuring in central N.S.W.
Although there were pockets that received decent falls from
time to time during this period, the only widespread falls
occurred in May and December. The driest months were June,
July, October, November and February. The SOI had been negative since late 1918 rising to around zero during the early part of 1920. However, it wasn't until the SOI rose to around +10 in June and July that the drought was eased or broken with widepsread above average falls. |
Monthly: March 19-April 20 Seasonal: Autumn 19 to Autumn 20 |
| 1914/15 | SOI: Strong SST: N/A |
This was the second year of a double El Niño event and
the effect was strong. The SOI was generally in the -15
to -20 range from April 1914 to May 1915, and apart from
coastal N.S.W. virtually all of eastern Australia, together with
the east of S.A. and southwest W.A. recorded below average
rainfall. For the 12 months from May
1914 to April 1915 decile 1 or lowest on record totals
were particularly prominent in Tasmania, Victoria, southeast
S.A. and southern N.S.W. Dry weather set in with a vengeance in southeastern Australia in June and continued almost unabated until the end of October. The pattern spread northward into Queensland in August, although much of Victoria, N.S.W. and Queensland had some relief in November and December with average to above average rains. The central and north coasts of N.S.W. were very wet in September and October during which time record dry conditions occurred over Victoria and Tasmania. The pattern of below average rainfall returned in January 1915 and continued to affect most of eastern Australia until the end of April. From May onwards the pattern reverted to one of average to above average falls that eventually led into the double La Niña event of 1916/1917. |
Monthly: March 14-April 15 Seasonal: Autumn 14 to Autumn 15 |
| 1913/14 | SOI: Weak SST: N/A |
A weak to moderate effect with most of southeastern Australia and parts of southern Queensland recording below average rainfall for the June 1913 to February 1914 period. Areas of decile 1 totals tended to be rather patchy, the largest covering parts of Gippsland, northeast Victoria and adjacent areas of the southern inland of N.S.W. The below average rainfall pattern took a while to become established with wet conditions prevailing over much of N.S.W. between March and June 1913. However, June 1913 was very dry in far western N.S.W., S.A. and western Victoria and this pattern spread eastward in July. There were average to above average falls in September and October 1913, but rainfall tended to be below normal for the four months following this. | Monthly: March 13-April 14 Seasonal: Autumn 13 to Autumn 14 |
| 1911/12 | SOI: Moderate to strong SST: N/A |
This event took a little while to get going in terms of
rainfall anomalies, but for the 14 months from
April 1911 to May 1912 the
overall impact was moderate to strong. For this
period falls were in decile 1 over much of eastern
Queensland, northern N.S.W, northern Victoria and the southern
border areas of N.S.W, western W.A. and parts of both southeast
S.A. and Tasmania. In parts of central Queensland, it was the
driest such period on record. Occasional good falls happened during the early and middle parts of the event with November and December 1911 being particularly wet across central N.S.W. However, January, April and May 1912 were dry over large areas. This pattern was broken in June and July 1912 with widespread above average rainfall. |
Monthly: March 11-April 12 Seasonal: Autumn 11 to Autumn 12 |
| 1905/06 | SOI: Strong SST: N/A |
Despite very strongly negative SOI values in autumn, it wasn't
until winter 1905 that drier than average areas began to emerge
in eastern Australia. The effect was relatively short-lived with
a moderate impact over the 8 months from
June 1905 to January 1906. During this
period most parts of eastern and northern Australia recorded
below average rainfall, with decile 1 areas scattered throughout.
Below average falls also occurred across much of S.A. and the
west of W.A. The driest period during the event over eastern and southern Australia was from November to January, but the pattern changed in February with above average to record falls occurring over southern Queensland and western N.S.W. High totals were widespread in the east of the country in March, although the monsoon remained weak over the far north. There was a brief return to widespread dry conditions in April. |
Monthly: March 05-April 06 Seasonal: Autumn 05 to Autumn 06 |
| 1902/03 | SOI: Weak SST: N/A |
This was the culmination of the Federation Drought with a
very strong impact over the eastern half of the country
where most rainfall totals for the 12 months from
November 1901 to October 1902
were in the lowest 10% of records. Vast areas of Queensland,
N.S.W. and central Australia had record low falls. The
southwest of W.A. was also drier than average. Negative SOI values occurred from September to December 1901, but apart from February 1902, the next negative monthly SOI value wasn't observed until August 1902. So it was an odd event in this respect. Areas of above average rainfall were observed in November 1902 over parts of S.A., southern N.T., western Queensland and the far northwest of N.S.W. heralding further widespread falls in December across southern and eastern Australia. The relief was shortlived though with more dry conditions in January and February 1903. It wasn't until March 1903 that a consistent pattern of above average falls was established. |
Monthly: March 02-April 03 Seasonal: Autumn 02 to Autumn 03 |
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