ENSO Outlook
An alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

El Niño and La Niña outlook status

The status of the ENSO Outlook is determined using set criteria (described below) and expert analysis by climatologists at the Bureau of Meteorology. It is updated fortnightly.

El Niño

El Niño WATCH El Niño WATCH

"The chance of an El Niño developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 50% of the time."

All of the following criteria need to be satisfied:

  1. Current climate state: ENSO phase is currently neutral or declining La Niña.
    • Either:
      SOI analogues: Of the 10 years that most closely resemble the current SOI pattern, 4 or more have shown El Niño characteristics.
    • Or:
      Sub-surface: Significant sub-surface warming has been observed in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  2. Models: One-third or more of surveyed climate models show sustained warming to at least 0.8 °C above average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean by late winter or spring.

El Niño ALERT El Niño ALERT

"The chance of an El Niño developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, an El Niño event has developed around 70% of the time."

Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:

  1. Sea surface temperature: A clear warming trend has been observed in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean during the past three to six months.
  2. Winds: Trade winds have been weaker than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any two of the last three months.
  3. SOI: The two-month average SOI is –7 or lower.
  4. Models: A majority of surveyed climate models show sustained warming to at least 0.8 °C above average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean by the late winter or spring.

El Niño EL NIÑO

"An El Niño has been declared and is underway."

Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:

  1. Sea surface temperature: Temperatures in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean are 0.8 °C warmer than average.
  2. Winds: Trade winds have been weaker than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any three of the last four months.
  3. SOI: The three-month average SOI is –7 or lower.
  4. Models: A majority of surveyed climate models show sustained warming to at least 0.8 °C above average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific until the end of the year.

La Niña

La Niña WATCH La Niña WATCH

"The chance of a La Niña developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has developed around 50% of the time."

All the following criteria need to be satisfied:

  1. Current climate state: ENSO phase is currently neutral or declining El Niño.
    • Either:
      SOI analogues: Of the 10 years that most closely resemble the current SOI pattern, 4 or more have shown La Niña characteristics.
    • Or:
      Sub-surface: Significant sub-surface cooling has been observed in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  2. Models: One-third or more of surveyed climate models show sustained cooling to at least 0.8 °C below average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean by late winter or spring.

La Niña ALERT La Niña ALERT

"The chance of a La Niña developing in the coming season has increased. When these criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has developed around 70% of the time."

Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:

  1. Sea surface temperature: A clear cooling trend has been observed in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean during the past three to six months.
  2. Winds: Trade winds have been stronger than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any two of the last three months.
  3. SOI: The two-month average SOI is +7 or higher.
  4. Models: A majority of surveyed climate models show sustained cooling to at least 0.8 °C below average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean by the late winter or spring.

La Niña LA NIÑA

"A La Niña has been declared and is underway."

Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied:

  1. Sea surface temperature: Temperatures in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean are 0.8 °C cooler than average.
  2. Winds: Trade winds have been stronger than average in the western or central equatorial Pacific Ocean during any three of the last four months.
  3. SOI: The three-month average SOI is +7 or higher.
  4. Models: A majority of surveyed climate models show sustained cooling to at least 0.8 °C below average in the NINO3 or NINO3.4 regions of the Pacific Ocean until the end of the year.

 

Inactive

El Niño and La Niña Neutral INACTIVE

"An ENSO event is not active in the tropical Pacific Ocean and there are no signs of an El Niño or La Niña developing."

The ENSO Outlook status is updated each fortnight. The below graph shows the fortnightly values dating back to January 1980. The below table shows the monthly value of the ENSO Outlook for historical comparisons. The ENSO Outlook graph and table are not an official time-line of ENSO events. For the official history of El Niño and La Niña events see:

Fortnightly ENSO Outlook values

Monthly ENSO Outlook values

Legend

ENW El Niño WATCH
LNA El Niño ALERT
EN EL NIÑO
N INACTIVE
LNW La Niña WATCH
ENA La Niña ALERT
LN LA NIÑA

El Niño and La Niña years

Shading of text in the year column refers to years in which El Niño (red) or La Niña (blue) events began.

Historical values of the ENSO Outlook status prior to 2014 are based on the set criteria alone. Values from the beginning of 2014 include expert analysis by climatologists at the Bureau of Meteorology to make the final assessment on a status level having been reached.

La Niña WATCH continues; trade winds remain stronger than average

The ENSO Outlook continues at La Niña WATCH. This is due to the persistence of some La Niña-like signals in the atmosphere and ocean, as well as the potential for the Pacific Ocean to cool back to La Niña levels in some model outlooks. La Niña WATCH means there is around a 50% chance of La Niña forming later in 2022. This is approximately double the normal likelihood.

Most oceanic and atmospheric ENSO indicators are currently at neutral levels but display weak La Niña-like characteristics. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are cooler than average but within ENSO-neutral levels. Atmospheric indicators continue to show La Niña-like traits, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), although this has seen a shift closer towards more neutral levels in the past fortnight.

Three of seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest La Niña could return in early southern hemisphere spring, with a fourth in late spring. The remaining three models persist at neutral ENSO levels.

Bureau climatologists will continue to closely monitor conditions in the tropical Pacific as well as model outlooks for signs of La Niña re-emergence.

Product code: IDCKGEAS00