El Niño
translates from Spanish as 'the boy-child'.
Peruvian fisherman originally used the term - a reference to the Christ
child - to describe the appearance, around Christmas, of a warm ocean current
off the South American coast.
Nowadays, the term El Niño refers to the
extensive warming of the central and
eastern Pacific that leads to a major shift in weather patterns
across the Pacific.
In Australia (particularly eastern Australia),
El Niño events are associated with an increased
probability of drier conditions.
Changes to the atmosphere and ocean circulation
during El Niño events include:
- Warmer than normal ocean temperatures across the
central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Increased convection or cloudiness in the central
tropical Pacific Ocean - the focus of convection
migrates from the Australian/Indonesian
region eastward towards the central tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Weaker than normal (easterly)
trade winds.
- Low (negative) values of the
SOI
(Southern Oscillation Index).
Monitoring these changes help to detect an El Niño event
and forecast its lifetime.
El Niño, La Niña, ENSO, Southern Oscillation and
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are all related to this topic.
Most of the headings below contain references to books,
journal articles and related sites on these topics.
"Climate Variability and El Niño" provides an explanation of the
changes El Niño brings and its affects on Australian rainfall.
General Introduction to El Niño
El Niño-Southern Oscillation & Climatic Variability
Allan R., Lindesay J. and Parker D.
The most complete synopsis available of oceanic and atmospheric patterns
during significant historical and contemporary El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) events (El Niño and La Niña).
To order please contact:
CSIRO Publishing
Teleconnections and Health
Nicholls, N.
M.H.Glantz, R.W.Katz and N.Nicholls (Editors),
Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1991, pp493-510.
Learning to live with El Niño
O'Neill, G.
Ecos, 84, 12, 1995.
Oceans, atmosphere and climate prediction
Brett, D.
Ecos, 63, 21-27, 1990.
|
El Niño and Health
Teleconnections and Health
Nicholls, N.
Glantz, M.H., Katz, R.W. and Nicholls, N. (Editors),
Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1991, pp493-510.
A method for predicting Murray Valley encephalitis in southeast Australia
using the Southern Oscillation
Nicholls, N.
Australian Journal of Experimental Biology and Medical Science,
64(6), 587-594, 1986.
El Niño and Environment
Impacts of extreme climatic conditions
on sugar cane production in northeastern Australia
Kuhnel, I.
Kundzewicz, Z.W., et al.(eds.), Extreme hydrological events: precipitation,
floods and droughts, Oxfordshire, UK, IAHS (International Association
of Hydrological Sciences) Press, 1993, 157-163, (International Association
of Hydrological Sciences, IAHS Publications no. 213).
Forecasting wheat yields in Australia with the Southern Oscillation
Index
Rimmington, G.M. and Nicholls, N.
Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 44(4), 625-632,
1993.
Use of the Southern Oscillation to predict Australian sorghum yield
Nicholls, N.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 38, 9-15, 1986.
El Niño and better land management
McKeon, G.M. and White, D.H.
Search, 23(6), 197-200, July 1992.
The Southern Oscillation and variations in waterfowl abundance in
southeastern Australia
Norman, F.I. and Nicholls, N.
Australian Journal of Ecology, 16, 485-490, 1991.
The Southern Oscillation regulates the annual numbers of green turtles
(chelonia mydas) breeding around northern Australia
Limpus, C.J. and Nicholls, N.
Australian Journal of Wildlife Research, 15, 157-161, 1988.
The El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Australian vegetation
Nicholls, N.
Henderson-Sellers, A. and Pitman, A.J. (eds.), Vegetatio 91: Vegetation
and climate interactions in semi-arid regions, Kluwer Academic Publishers,
23-36, 1991.
Impact of the Southern Oscillation on Australian Crops
Nicholls, N.
Journal of Climatology, 5, 553-560, 1985.
|
El Niño and Rainfall
Temporal variation of relations between tropical sea-surface temperatures
and New South Wales rainfall
Cordery, I. and Opoku-Ankomah, Y.
Australian Meteorological Magazine, 43(2), 73-80, 1994.
Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature patterns and Australian winter
rainfall
Smith, I.
International Journal of Climatology, 14(3), 287-305, 1994.
ENSO phenomenon and 30-50 day variability in the Australian summer
monsoon rainfall
Suppiah, R.
International Journal of Climatology, 13(8), 837-851, 1993.
The Southern Oscillation Index as a predictor of seasonal rainfall
in the arable areas of the inland Australian subtropics
Russell, J.S., McLeod, I.M., Dale, M.B. and Valentine, T.R.
Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 44(6), 1337-1349,
1993.
SOI phase relationships with rainfall in eastern Australia
Stone, R. and Auliciems, A.
International Journal of Climatology, 12(6), 625-636, 1992.
Long-term variations in the Southern Oscillation and relationships
with Australian rainfall
Zhang, X.-G. and Casey, T.M.
Australian Meteorological Magazine, 40(4), 211-225, 1992.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation modification to the structure
of the monsoon and tropical cyclone activity in the Australasian region
Evans, J.L. and Allan, R.J.
International Journal of Climatology, 12(6), 611-623, 1992.
Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern
Oscillation
McBride, J.L. and Nicholls, N.
Monthly Weather Review, 111, 1998-2004, 1983.
Sea surface temperatures and Australian winter rainfall
Nicholls, N.
Journal of Climate, 2, 965-973, 1989.
Potential predictability of winter rainfall over southern and eastern
Australia using Indian Oean sea-surface temperature anomalies
Drosdowsky, W.
Australian Meteorological Magazine, 42(1), 1-6, 1993.
Dependence of rainfall variability on mean rainfall, latitude and
the Southern Oscillation
Nicholls, N. and Wong, K.K.
Journal of Climate, 3(1), 163-170, 1990.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation and rainfall variability
N. Nicholls
Journal of Climate, 1(4), 418-421, 1988.
East Australian rainfall events: interannual variations, trends,
and relationships with the Southern Oscillation
Nicholls, N. and Kariko, A.
Journal of Climate, 6(6), 1141-1152, 1993.
ENSO, drought and flooding rain in south-east Asia
Nicholls, N.
South-east Asia's environmental future: The Search for Sustainability,
H. Brookfield and Y. Bryon (eds.), Oxford Univ. Press, 1993. Chapter 7.
|
El Niño and General Impact
Applications of regional climate predictions
Kininmonth, W. R
World Meteorological Organization Bulletin,
43(2), 111-113, 1994.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation influences in the Australasian
region
Allan, R.J.
Progress in Physical Geography, 12(3), 313-348, 1988.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation impact prediction
Nicholls, N.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 69(2), 173-176,
1988.
Climatic variability on decadal to century time-scales
Diaz, H.F. and Kiladis, G.N.
A.Henderson-Sellers (Editor), World Survey of Climatology Vol.16,
Future Climates of the World: a modelling perspective. Elsevier, Amsterdam,
191-244, 1995.
The Southern Oscillation in the Australian region.
I: Anomalies at the extremes of the Oscillation
Drosdowsky, W. and Williams, M.
Journal of Climate, 4(6), 619-638, 1991.
Recent performance of a method for forecasting Australian seasonal
tropical cyclone activity
Nicholls, N.
Australian Meteorological Magazine, 40(2), 105-110, 1992.
The Use of Canonical Correlation to Study Teleconnections
Nicholls, N.
Monthly Weather Review, 115(2), 393-399, 1987.
More on early ENSOs: Evidence from Australian Documentary sources
Nicholls, N.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 69(1), 4-6,
1988.
A further extension of the Tahiti-Darwin SOI, early ENSO events and
Darwin pressure
Allan, R.J., Nicholls, N., Jones, P.D. and Butterworth, I.J.
Journal of Climate, 4(7), 743-749, 1991.
Historical El Niño/Southern Oscillation variability in the
Australasian region
Neville Nicholls
El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation,
H. F. Diaz & V. Markgraf (eds.) Cambridge University Press 1992 Chapter 7.
Related sites
National Meteorological Library (Australian Bureau of Meteorology)
ENSO prediction papers (University of Washington)
|
|
