Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales. The MJO can be characterised as an eastward moving 'pulse' of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.
MJO location and strength
These graphs show the strength and progression of the MJO through 8 different areas
along the equator around the globe.
Area 3 is north west of Australia, 4 and 5 are to the north (the Maritime Continent), and 6 is to the north east.
RMM1 and RMM2 are mathematical methods that combine cloud amount and winds at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere to provide a measure of the strength and location of the MJO. When this index is within the centre circle the MJO is considered weak. Outside of this circle the index is stronger and will usually move in an anti-clockwise direction as the MJO moves from west to east.
Download data: RMM Data RMM methods
Download data: RMM Data RMM methods
*Note: There are missing satellite observations from 16/3/1978 to 31/12/1978.
Average weekly rainfall probabilities
These maps show average weekly rainfall probabilities for each of the 8 MJO phases. Green shades indicate higher than normal expected rainfall, while brown shades indicates lower than normal expected rainfall.
Select the 'Wind' checkbox to also show the expected 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km above sea level) wind anomalies. The direction and length of the arrows indicate the direction and strength of the wind anomaly. The darker the arrow, the more reliable the information is.
The relationship of the MJO with global weather patterns changes with the season
These maps show average minimum or maximum temperature anomalies for each of the 8 MJO phases. Red-yellow colours indicate higher than normal temperature, while blue colours indicate lower than normal temperature.
Select the 'Wind' checkbox to also show the expected 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km above sea level) wind anomalies. The direction and length of the arrows indicate the direction and strength of the wind anomaly. The darker the arrow, the more reliable the information is.
The relationship of the MJO with global weather patterns changes with the season
Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is often used as a way to identify tall, thick, convective rain clouds. These maps show the difference from expected cloudiness based on the position of the MJO. The violet and blue shading indicates higher than normal, active or enhanced tropical weather, while orange shading indicates lower than normal cloud or suppressed conditions.
Select the 'Wind' checkbox to also show the expected 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km above sea level) wind anomalies. The direction and length of the arrows indicate the direction and strength of the wind anomaly. The darker the arrow, the more reliable the information is.
The relationship of the MJO with global weather patterns changes with the season
These maps show the atmospheric troughs and ridges (in blue and red, respectively) associated with the different phases of the MJO at the 500hPa level. The 500 hPa level is approximately 5500 m above sea level and is about the middle of the troposphere. Colour shading is only used where the geopotential height anomalies are determined to be statistically-significant at the 5% level.
Select the 'Wind' checkbox to also show the expected 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km above sea level) wind anomalies. The direction and length of the arrows indicate the direction and strength of the wind anomaly. The darker the arrow, the more reliable the information is.
The relationship of the MJO with global weather patterns changes with the season
Global maps of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)
Global maps of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) highlight regions experiencing more or less cloudiness. The top panel is the total OLR in Watts per square metre (W/m²) and the bottom panel is the anomaly (current minus the 1979-1998 climate average), in W/m². In the bottom panel, negative values (blue shading) represent above normal cloudiness while positive values (brown shading) represent below normal cloudiness.
Regional maps of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)
The graphs linked to this map show the OLRs for the different regions within the Darwin RSMC area. The horizontal dashed line represents what is normal for that time of year (based on the 1979 to 1998 period). The coloured curve is the 3-day moving average OLR in W/m². Below normal OLR indicates cloudier than normal conditions in this particular area, and is shown in blue shading. Above normal OLR indicates less cloudy conditions and is shown in yellow shading.
OLR totals over the dateline
Time longitude plots
Time longitude plots of daily averaged OLR anomalies (left) and 850 hPa (approximately 1.5 km above sea level) westerly wind anomalies (right) are useful for indicating the movement of the MJO.
How to read the Time longitude plots
The vertical axis represents time with the most distant past on the top and becoming more recent as you move down the chart. The Horizontal axis represents longitude.
Eastward movement of a strong MJO event would be seen as a diagonal line of violet (downward from left to right) in the OLR diagram, and a corresponding diagonal line of purple in the wind diagram. These diagonal lines would most likely fall between 60°E and 150°E and they would be repeated nearly every 1 to 2 months.
Daily averaged OLR anomalies
Westerly wind anomalies
Monsoon Burst to Return to Northern Australia
The monsoon is set to return to northern Australia in the coming week and its return will likely bring increased rainfall across the region. This will coincide with the forecast eastward movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) into the Maritime Continent (MC) in early February.
Northern Australia has been in a monsoon break period over the last week but there were periods of storms and squalls that were experienced across the region. Further rainfall was experienced in the Kimberley region of Western Australia as a weak tropical low (10U) influenced the weather across the region, associated with the passage of an equatorial Rossby (ER) wave. The rainfall recorded was less than that received during ex-tropical cyclone Ellie at the end of December and early January, thus did not cause further flooding in the Fitzroy River catchment.
As the monsoon returns across the region this week, tropical lows may develop within it, most likely in the Indian Ocean south of the Indonesian archipelago and near the western Maritime Continent. More information on the current tropical cyclone forecast can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
February and March are the peak period for tropical cyclone activity across northern Australia. In addition, the La Niña in the Pacific continues, so broad environmental conditions remain favourable for tropical cyclone formation.
Madden–Julian Oscillation Will Weaken and Move to the Maritime Continent
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to weaken from its moderate to strong intensity in the eastern Indian Ocean and is forecast to move over the Maritime Continent in early February. Although the MJO is forecast to weaken as it tracks across the Maritime Continent region and into the Western Pacific region, it is likely to have an influence on tropical weather through to mid-February.
Read more about the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Product code: IDCKGEW000
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: Interpolated OLR data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
Product Code: IDCKGEM000
Unless otherwise noted, all maps, graphs and diagrams in this page are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
