SCOPIC is a decision support system for generating probabilistic predictions (seasonal climate outlooks) for rainfall, temperature or other climate related parameters.

SCOPIC was developed to transform the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology's operational seasonal climate prediction system into a standalone PC software program accessible to the Pacific Island nations. The prediction system is statistically based, utilising a discriminant analysis algorithm to generate forecast probabilities through correlation between different predictors and predictands.

SCOPIC can predict whatever you want it to, provided you have enough sample data to train it! The predictand data will in most cases consist of rainfall or temperature data, although in principle, any data could be used. For instance, the predictand could consist of tonnes of taro, or megalitres of water stored. The requirements for the predictand data are that it be in monthly format, be saved in an Microsoft EXCEL file and have at least 25 years of data. SCOPIC can link this data to a map of the local region so as to spatially analyse forecast outputs.

SCOPIC is very flexible allowing literally any type of monthly time-series data to be used as a predictor in generating the forecast. However, digression must be used when trying different combinations of predictor and predictand in the hope of finding something that "works". There is a very real risk of introducing "artificial skill" by such a practice. Two forms of predictor are supplied with the installation package of SCOPIC: surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

The predictors used in the Bureau's system are SSTas over specific areas of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. These are based on an Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis of SSTas over the two ocean basins. SSTas are known to exert a significant influence on climate, because they strongly influence the overlying atmosphere, but themselves change relatively slowly. The primary predictor is SST1 or EOF1, which represents the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon..

SCOPIC generates forecasts in the form of either tercile probability forecasts or above/below median probability forecasts. Accompanying these are range of graphical and textural outputs from supporting analyses. These include skill tests, hindcasts, data-browsing, statistical analyses and scatter plots.