POAMA Long-Range Outlook

Issued 15 January 2017

Updated fortnightly

These model forecasts of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are generated by the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical computer model of the climate system run at the Bureau of Meteorology. They are included in the monthly model summary of predictions from POAMA and other models operated by international organisations.

POAMA outlooks provide forecasts out to nine months ahead. The model ensemble distributions shown here provide a range of possible developments in sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO regions) and for the Indian Ocean.

NINO34 predictions for the next 9 months.

Skip to past graph to table of values

Outlook graph for selected indice

NINO34 probabilities

Click dates in the first row to see probability graphs
Outlook for month
NINO34 (°C) -0.29 -0.11 0.06 0.21 0.32 0.40 0.48
Model cool frequency (<−0.8°C) 0% 6.06% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Model neutral frequency 100% 93.94% 100% 100% 96.96% 87.88% 84.85%
Model warm frequency (>+0.8°C) 0% 0% 0% 0% 3.03% 12.12% 15.15%