Tropical Climate Update

Unseasonable rainfall in north Queensland

A burst of unseasonable rainfall was recorded over the north, central and east of Queensland from a broad cloudband. Daily rainfall totals between 10 and 30 mm were recorded to 9am on 17 June in many locations in the North Tropical Coast and adjacent districts. Isolated higher falls in excess of 50 mm were recorded in the Gulf Country. Miranda Downs Station recorded 51.0 mm, which was is highest June daily rainfall since 1990. The long-term average (1991–2020) June rainfall is generally 5 mm or less along the Gulf Country and most of the Cape York Peninsula, and between 10 mm to 25 mm for much of the west and central Queensland.  The cloudband has continued to bring showers in the north and east of Queensland, but is forecast to weaken and move eastwards, away from the coast from 18 June.

July to September long-range forecast

• Rainfall across much of northern Australia for the three months July to September – the latter part of the northern dry season - is forecast to be above average for much of the region, noting that rainfall is generally low at this time of year.
• Both maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of northern Australia, with increased chances of being unusually warm (in the top 20% of the historical range for July to September).

Indian southwest monsoon moved to central India regions

The Southwest Monsoon has continued to move northward since onset in Kerala in late May. As at 16 June, the monsoon had progressed north of 20 °N across the western and central Indian regions. This is slightly ahead of the average onset date in the west and is close to average over central regions. However, the eastern regions have not yet seen monsoon onset as the slow-moving system has stalled over the Bangladesh and Nepal borders.

The onset of the Southwest Monsoon can be monitored on the India Meteorological Department's website, as well as India's seasonal rainfall forecast

Madden–Julian Oscillation

At the start of June, a moderate strength pulse of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved across the Western Pacific then weakened in the Western Hemisphere and Africa. As of 14 June, the MJO signal is indiscernible. The majority of MJO forecast models indicate the MJO will remain indiscernible until the end of June. A weak MJO has minimal influence on Australian rainfall at this time of year.