Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 21 October 2014
The Madden-Julian Oscillation
A new burst in Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity is likely to have enhanced convection over the tropical Indian Ocean this past week and suppressed convection over the western Pacific Ocean. This suppression is allowing for a break in typhoon activity over the northwest Pacific. While all models keep the MJO over Africa and the western Indian Ocean for the rest of the week, there is a large spread in the forecast strength. While the MJO is likely to act to enhance activity over the tropical Indian Ocean in the coming few days, by the end of the week most models indicate the MJO will be too weak to influence tropical activity.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on the location and tracking of the MJO.
El Niño—Southern Oscillation continues in neutral state
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators, as well as Australian rainfall patterns, continue to show some El Niño–like signatures, but remain in the neutral range. While it still remains possible that El Niño thresholds may be met by the end of 2014, any event that develops this late in the year is unlikely to be a strong event. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.6 °C, the highest anomaly so far this year. The latest Southern Oscillation Index value up to 19 October is −4.3.
See the Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Wrap up for official El Niño information.
Next update expected by 28 October 2014| Product Code IDCKGEW000