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El Nino-Southern Oscillation Update The Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature [SST] and sub-surface temperature pattern is typical for an El Niņo event. SSTs remain warmer than the long-term mean across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest positive anomalies occurring close to the dateline. However, overall the area of positive anomalies have contracted over the last month. The sub-surface of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean also remains warmer than the long-term average but it too has shown an overall cooling trend over the past month. Sub-surface anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific are now around 1-3 °C above normal. For more information about the current state of El Nino - Southern Oscillation [ENSO] see the Bureau's "ENSO Wrap-Up" at www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ which includes a compilation of computer model predictions of ENSO.
Intra-Seasonal Patterns Over the past couple of weeks, the MJO has remained active and quasistationary over the warm SSTs in the western Pacific. The expectation is that the MJO will track east into the western hemisphere towards the end of this week. A suppressed phase of the MJO, currently located over Australian longitudes, is expected to persist across northern Australia for another week or so. Typically, a suppressed phase of the MJO coincides with a reduction in broadscale rainfall across Northern Australia. Although there is a moderate level of uncertainty associated with current computer model forecasts of the MJO, the next active phase of the MJO to enter Australian longitudes is likely to be towards the end of February / start of March.
* Darwin RSMC chart area extends from 40S to 40N, 70E to 180
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