Weekly Tropical Climate Note

Issued 3 March 2015

Madden–Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been weak and indiscernible for almost three weeks, meaning that it has provided little guidance on recent tropical weather variability. It is possible that the MJO will remain indescernible. However, some models indicate a very weak pulse of MJO activity may develop in the western tropical Indian Ocean in the coming days, move slowly eastwards and influence the Maritime Continent later this week or early next week. If the MJO strengthens over the Maritime Continent, the north Australian monsoon trough is likely to become more active, although it is uncertain whether the monsoon trough will move over the continent or remain offshore to the north of the continent. The risk of tropical cyclone activity over Australia's northern waters will increase next week if the monsoon trough becomes more active.

See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information.

Renewed warming in the Pacific Ocean

The central to western regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed by 0.2 to 0.3 °C over the past fortnight. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is +0.7 °C while the NINO4 region shows a SST anomaly of +1.1 °C. All international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that central tropical Pacific SSTs are likely to remain warmer than normal, but within the neutral range, until at least May.

See the Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Wrap up for official El Niño information.

Next update expected by 10 March 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEW000

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