Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 10 December 2013
Weak Madden-Julian Oscillation detected in the east tropical Indian Ocean
This last week has seen an increase in tropical convection over the Bay of Bengal including the formation of very severe cyclonic storm Madi southeast of Chennai, India. Warm ocean temperatures currently affect the whole of the Indian Ocean Basin and a weak signal of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been detected over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean in recent days. These two factors are likely to have contributed to the enhanced tropical weather over the Bay of Bengal this week.While there is some uncertainty in the forecast of the movement of the MJO, several climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest a weak MJO pulse is likely to move eastwards into the Maritime Continent during the last two weeks of December. The pulse is expected to be weak; however, it may be enough to increase the risk of tropical cyclone development over the Australian region. Furthermore, this would indicate an increased chance that Northern Australia will see another monsoon burst before the end of the year.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.
ENSO state: neutral
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in the neutral state. When ENSO is in a neutral phase, more localised weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors such as the position and strength of the monsoon trough.
The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is +0.3 °C. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value to 8 December is +5.7.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of computer model predictions of ENSO indices.
Next update expected by 17 December 2013| Product Code IDCKGEWOOO
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