Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook

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Introduction

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlooks provide a rough forecast for number of tropical cyclones expected in the coming season. The ability for each Region to provide a good prediction will vary from season to season, depending on global weather patterns and sea temperatures. The existence of El Niño or La Niña conditions can have a significant effect on the expected number and pattern of cyclones in a season.

When is a Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook issued?

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlooks are issued October or November: One for Western Australia, One for Northern Australia and one for Queensland. Sometimes an update may be issued during the season.

How often is a Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook issued?

Generally once a year for each Region.

What Information is included in the Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook?

Each Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook will consist of the following information:

  • A statement of the prevailing global weather patterns and climatic conditions
  • Some relevant statistical information
  • A prediction of the frequency and pattern of cyclones in the coming season
  • A statement of the reliability of this outlook in light of the particular conditions that are current.

Who is the target audience of Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlooks?

Everybody.

Where are Tropical Cyclone Outlooks Seasonal issued?

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlooks are issued by Regional Offices of the Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Darwin and Brisbane.