Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory

IDD10755

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook 2017-18

Issued at 9:30 am CST on Monday 9 October 2017.

Typical number of cyclones likely for Australia

A typical number of tropical cyclones are likely to form in the Australian region this season. The season, which runs from November to April, typically sees between 10 and 13 cyclones in Australian waters, with around four of these crossing the coast. Australia has always seen at least one tropical cyclone cross the coast each season.

This outlook is influenced by:

* ENSO-neutral to weak La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and

* slightly warmer-than-average ocean temperatures to the north and east of Australia.

During ENSO-neutral years, the first tropical cyclone to make landfall over Australia typically occurs in late December. In La Nina years, the first cyclone landfall typically occurs earlier, around the first week of December.

Tropical cyclones that do not make landfall can still have a significant impact on coastal communities, through heavy rainfall, storm surges, and large waves.

Summary of the Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory

A 53% chance of an above average number of tropical cyclones in waters around the Northern Territory, the north Kimberley coast and the Gulf of Carpentaria (average number is two or three).

* In a typical year the Northern region experiences around three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions.

* At least one coastal crossing is likely.

* The outlook accuracy for the Northern Region is very low.

* National Tropical Cyclone Outlook - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/

During the cyclone season, stay up to date with forecasts and warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology and follow instructions from local emergency services authorities.

Further information: