Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook 2018-19

Issued at 12:05 pm CST on Wednesday 17 October 2018.

Territorians urged to prepare for all weather hazards this wet season

The Bureau of Meteorology released its tropical cyclone outlook today, reminding Territorians to start preparations for the severe weather season.

The outlook predicts slightly fewer tropical cyclones than average this year, which means we are likely to see two or three cyclones, of any intensity and size, form anywhere off the NT coast between November and April.

The Bureau's NT Manager, Todd Smith said that last year was an average tropical cyclone year, with 11 cyclones in Australian waters.

"Although we saw the average number of tropical cyclones last season, most Darwinites would agree, after experiencing Tropical Cyclone Marcus, that it was far from an average season.

"It's important to remember that a typical wet season brings significant impacts from all weather hazards across the entire Territory. Tropical cyclones bring damaging winds and storm surges, with heavy rainfall and flooding, but we also see widespread impacts including flooding and strong winds from tropical low systems and severe thunderstorms right across the NT," Mr Smith said.

Northern Territory Emergency Services Director, Jason Collins agreed.

"The Bureau and NT Emergency Services are ready for whatever the coming season can throw at us - it's a core part of our business. Now is the time for Territorians to make sure theyre ready too.

Territorians need to prepare for the coming season. While we have a highly capable emergency service, there is also a responsibility upon individuals to make their own preparations well in advance of any significant weather events.

Having a Household Emergency Plan is a great place to start in terms of preparation. Discuss with your family and friends what they will do in an emergency or disaster. Answer these questions: Is your home safe?Where will you shelter? Is your yard clear of loose material that could become a dangerous projectile during extreme winds? Mr Collins said.

Mr Collins advised that it can take up to 72 hours for help to arrive after a significant event.

Ensure you have an up to date emergency kit, and that your kit is able to sustain you and each member of your family for three days or more, he added.

During the cyclone season, stay up to date with forecasts and warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology and follow instructions from local emergency services authorities.

Summary of the Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Region

  • For the 2018-19 season, there is a 46% chance of more than the average number of tropical cyclones.

  • In a typical year, the Northern Region experiences around three cyclones and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions.

  • About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions.

  • The outlook accuracy for the Northern Region is very low.

  • National Tropical Cyclone Outlook -

Further information: