Tropical Cyclone seasonal outlook for The Coral Sea


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Coral Sea

Issued at 2:43 pm EST on Thursday 3 November 2022.

Warm oceans and La Nina could cause early start to cyclone season

The Bureau issued Australia's Tropical Cyclone Season long-range forecast on 10 October in advance of the 1 November to 30 April cyclone season.

This season there is a greater than 70 per cent chance of an above average number of tropical cyclones in the Eastern Region. On average, 4 tropical cyclones form in the Eastern Region every season, with one crossing the coast.

Communities are urged to prepare now as there is an increased chance that the first tropical cyclone in the Australian region is likely to be earlier in the season.

This reflects the impact of current climate influences including La Nina and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.

Despite fewer tropical cyclones in recent years, Australia has never had a season without at least one tropical cyclone crossing the coast, since records began in the early 1970s.

The Bureau closely monitors tropical weather systems and, where required, issues cyclone watches and warning advice.

It is important to know your weather and know your risk so you're ready to act and stay safe.

Stay up to date with the latest forecast and warnings on the Bureau's website or Bureau Weather app. To receive notifications through the app, visit the notifications setting menu to get the warning information you need when it matters most.

People travelling are encouraged to update your location and enable push notifications on the Bureau Weather app to receive warnings directly to your phone.

Follow all advice from your local emergency services on what to do before, during and after severe weather.

The Bureau works closely with emergency management agencies and with government at all levels to provide expert insights and to share up-to-date information.

Prepare early as there is an increased chance of tropical cyclones developing earlier in the season between November and April.

This season, there is an increased chance of an above-average number of tropical cyclones including tropical lows in Australia and the surrounding region.

Tropical lows can bring heavy rainfall over land, or when at sea may signal the early stages of tropical cyclone development if they pick up wind and speed.

Australia has an average of 9 to 11 tropical cyclones each year, with around 4 crossing the coast in an average season.

Coastal areas can be affected even when tropical cyclones stay offshore, especially during high tides. The impacts can include damaging or destructive winds, heavy rain leading to flooding, and other hazards such as trees being uprooted due to wet soils, landslips in steep areas and coastal erosion.

Communities are encouraged to stay up to date with forecasts and warnings through the Bureau's website and BOM Weather app. To receive notifications through the app, visit the notifications setting menu to get the warning information you need when it matters most.

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