Program — Thursday

prepared on 8 Oct 2010

Clicking on an item will take you to its abstract
Most presentations are 15 minutes long, with an extra 5 minutes for questions. Lightning lectures, indicated by a yellow margin are 5 minutes long
This program is also available as a PDF
If you any questions or comments email the organisers at anzcf2010@bom.gov.au

Thursday 14 October

8:00 am	Registration desk open
8:25 am	Plenary session Call to order and housekeeping Southern Ocean acidification: features · findings · futures Donna Roberts
9:20 am	IPCC AR5 modelling activities: overview The CMIP5 modelling project contributing to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report – a global and national perspective Tony Hirst Overview of the CSIRO-QCCCE contribution to CMIP5 Stephen Jeffrey The CSIRO Mk3.6 GCM: an Australian contribution to CMIP5 Leon Rotstayn Status of the Mk3.6 CMIP5 submission and additional Australian-focused experiments Mark Collier	Ocean and marine observations Australia's integrated marine observing system (IMOS) – going further and deeper to address marine and climate issues. Susan Wijffels Air-sea flux observing efforts in the Southern Ocean Eric Schulz Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS) Gary Meyers Evaluation of QSCAT, NCEP, NOGAPS and COAMPS wind vectors using ocean buoy data I-Huan Lee	Seasonal forecasting Seven lessons learnt from our experimental seasonal streamflow forecasting service Daehyok Shin Application of POAMA coupled model seasonal forecasts to the wheat industry in Western Australia Peter McIntosh The Australia-Asian monsoon interactions and their impacts on climate variability and predictability in the region Huqiang Zhang The role of dynamical seasonal forecasting in marine applications and management Claire Spillman	Gridded data for climate The development and application of high resolution spatial analyses for Australia David Jones Investigation into the suitability of using gridded data as a proxy for observed data in hydrological applications Carly Tozer Spatial interpolation of daily rainfall Michael Hutchinson Spatial interpolation and observed trends in daily and monthly weather over Australia Jenny Kesteven
10:40 am	Morning tea
11:10 am	Features of Australia's climate Characteristics of the Federation drought across south eastern Australia Bertrand Timbal Changes in the seasonality of fire weather in Tasmania Paul Fox-Hughes Urbanisation and maximum temperature Belinda Campbell Heat, humidity and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Sydney, Australia Acacia Pepler Tropical expansion over Australia Chris Lucas	Marine ecosystems in a changing climate Deriving phytoplankton community composition and photosynthetic rates from globally representative in situ measurements applied to satellite Earth observation Nick Hardman-Mountford A global network for marine climate change hotspots Alistair Hobday Southern Ocean iron fertilisation by baleen whales and Antarctic krill Stephen Nicol Ecological impacts of extreme sea ice and atmospheric conditions along the West Antarctic Peninsula, 2001-2 Rob Massom The effect of elevated CO₂ levels on Antarctic phytoplankton species as food for Euphausia superba larvae Cathryn Wynn-Edwards A report card of marine climate change impacts and adaptation for Australia Alistair Hobday	Statistical downscaling of climate projections Statistical downscaling of regional precipitation and temperature over southeast Australia based on self-organizing maps Yinpeng Li Assessing variability and future projections in rainfall extremes using a simple physically based statistical model Michael Hutchinson GCM projected rainfall changes across NSW using stochastic weather generation downscaling method De Li Liu Statistical downscaling onto high resolution grids Alex Evans Issues encountered in estimating rainfall trends from global climate models for use in pattern scaling: three options James Ricketts	IPCC AR5 modelling activities: preliminary analyses Climate change projections for the twenty-first century using representative concentrations pathways emission scenarios and the CSIRO Mk3.6 climate model Jozef Syktus Climate extremes in Australia during the 20th century: Impact of various radiative forcing factors Kenneth Wong Impact of changes in radiative forcing on rainfall in South-West Western Australia and South-East Australia Nathan Toombs Impact of changes in radiative forcing on large scale circulation of the Southern Hemisphere during second part of 20th Century Kenneth Wong 20 year global AMIP-style climate simulation using the ACCESS model Lauren Stevens
12:50 pm	Lunch
1:50 pm	Large scale change influencing local climate Changes and projections in southern Australian winter rainfall and circulation Carsten Frederiksen Strengthening regional climate change projections of rainfall through fine-scale dynamical downscaling modelling and analyses of climate drivers at all scales Michael Grose Detection and attribution of recent climate changes in Tasmania Holly Stephens Climate drivers and the potential for monthly climate outlooks Belinda Campbell Possible feedbacks between ENSO and biomass burning Alena Chrastansky Barotropic instability and the latitude of the eddy-driven jet Joseph Kidston	Southern Ocean biota in a changing climate Productivity changes in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean Pete Strutton Effects of ocean acidification on Antarctic marine protists Karen Westwood Ocean acidification at high latitudes: potential effects on functioning of an Antarctic bivalve Vonda Cummings The impact of light regime on Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) Molly Jia The effects of CO₂-induced ocean acidification on the survival and development of early larval stage Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) James P. Robinson Operational monitoring of the ocean-atmosphere CO₂ exchange in the Southern Ocean Nick Hardman-Mountford	Variability and change in the oceans Variability of Southern Hemisphere Antarctic Intermediate Water over the last millennium as assessed from analysis of the skeletal composition of deep-water corals Ronald Thresher A new view of biases in historical expendable bathythermograph data based on side-by-side comparisons Susan Wijffels Revisiting halosteric and thermosteric sea level rise 1950-2000 Paul Durack The detection and anatomy of 50 years of ocean warming: observations and CMIP3 models Susan Wijffels	Ice shelves and sea ice Landfast sea ice – an additional factor in ice sheet stability? Rob Massom Tides and tidally-driven melting in Pine Island Bay Robin Robertson Elliptical diagnostics of Antarctic sea ice extent Robert Ward	IPCC AR5 modelling activities: evaluation and challenges Impact of a prognostic cloud scheme on simulated climate in the ACCESS atmospheric GCM Harun Rashid Evaluation of low latitude cloud properties in ACCESS and HadGEM AMIP simulations Charmaine Franklin Performance of the Australian Climate Ocean Model (AusCOM) and the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) coupled model in simulating the world ocean Climate Daohua Bi CMIP5 and challenges for the analysis community - a pipeline framework for the analysis of CMIP data Tim Erwin The CAWCR-QCCCE Model Rewriter for generating CMIP5 parameters from CSIRO Mk3.6 and ACCESS model simulations James Sell
3:10 pm	Afternoon tea
3:40 pm	Plenary session Uncertainty in weather, climate and human "progress": how will the dice be rolled? John Hunter				IPCC AR5 modelling activities workshop
4:25 pm	Sea level in a changing climate Understanding sea-level rise and variability John Church ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism Neil Holbrook	Other models for climate systems Playing the SIM card – an alternative version of SAM Tim Gibson A probability density function-based view of climate J Walter Larson	Antarctica in a changing climate Impact on Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) of interactions between fast ice, pack ice, polynyas, icebergs and winds Rob Massom Southern Ocean ecosystems: threats to their microbial base from climate change Simon Wright	IPCC AR5 modelling activities workshop
5:05 pm	End of day's sessions
6:30 pm	Conference dinner Royal Yacht Club of Tasmania, Marieville Esplanade, Sandy Bay