Building your 'weather' skills

We hope this site has given you an outline of the forces that drive our atmosphere; systems for monitoring and measuring weather elements around the clock; the weather map, and how meteorologists prepare forecasts.

Without postgraduate studies in atmospheric physics, access to supercomputers, and years of experience, it's difficult to predict weather.

But if you'd like to try some basic short-term forecasts, perhaps a day ahead, there are two broad approaches:

The simplest technique works usefully only in areas and seasons of weather stability - for instance, wintertime in much of central Australia. Simply start with observations of today's weather; make an adjustment depending on whether your barometer is steady, rising or falling; apply local knowledge (this can be something as simple as remembering that you live in a rain shadow behind a mountain, or as invaluable as decades of weather data records from a family farm), and have a go. Unfortunately such an approach is likely to be less successful in highly changeable areas like coastal Southeast Australia.

For a more helpful forecast, start with the latest weather map (available on the Web and by fax and in TV and print media) and fine-tune its broad information with your local knowledge and experience.
With a broad understanding of where weather systems are likely to move (often gained by studying sequences of such maps), you will be able to estimate the arrival of significant features like cold fronts, observing any barometric changes, and infer their likely impact by applying local knowledge.

A few things to consider:
Can you estimate from comparing successive maps when a particular major weather system may reach you?

Are there any factors which may significantly change the weather at your location (e.g. the arrival of a frontal system?)

Has your barometer shown any pressure trends to help you track the highs and lows?

Do you have any simple instruments (for instance, a wind vane) or more elaborate equipment (perhaps a mini weather station that can be linked to a computer) to help you monitor changes?

What happens locally at this time of year? Stable and dry conditions? Midwinter frosts? Frequent afternoon thunderstorms? A reliable afternoon sea breeze?

Does your altitude affect conditions (especially temperature) significantly?

Have you got the latest satellite images from the Web or fax? Or radar data for very short-term forecasts, perhaps only five or six hours ahead?