Home | About Us | Contacts | Help | Feedback | SEARCH Global | Australia | NSW | Vic. | Qld | WA | SA | Tas. | ACT | NT | Ant. | Weather & Warnings | Hydrology | Climate | Numerical Prediction | About Services | Learn About Meteorology | Registered User Services |

Previous Chapter | Back to Index | Next Chapter

METEOROLOGICAL AND RELATED DATA AND PRODUCTS

OBJECTIVE

OUTPUT

OUTCOME

Resource Use

Observational Data

Engineering

Processed Data And Products

Computing

Analysis and Prediction

OBJECTIVE

Top of Page

To provide, operate and maintain the basic observation, communications and data processing systems necessary to maintain a round-the-clock nationwide weather watch and to meet present and future national and international needs for raw and processed meteorological data.

OUTPUT

Top of Page

Effective round-the-clock operation of the national meteorological monitoring and prediction infrastructure and the provision of the basic meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic data and products required to maintain the national climate record, to characterise the behaviour of Australian weather and climate, to support the full range of publicly and privately provided meteorological and related services in Australia and to meet Australia's obligations for the free and unrestricted international exchange of meteorological and related data and products.

OUTCOME

Top of Page

Satisfaction of present and future needs for continuous reliable data and information on Australian weather and climate.

Meteorological and Related Data and Products is the major output of the Bureau's basic observation, communications and data processing systems and is delivered through two component outputs:

· observational data; and

· processed data and products.

The basic systems that deliver this major output also provide the common foundation on which virtually all the research, services and international outputs of the Bureau depend.

The observation system includes a Bureau-staffed surface and upper-air network of 50 stations, a surface network of over 800 synoptic observation stations, over 6000 volunteer rainfall observing stations and a range of other specialised networks and facilities such as weather watch radar, flood warning, lightning detection, drifting buoys, solar and terrestrial radiation, ozone and satellite data reception. The communications system consists of an integrated network of satellite, radio, facsimile and computer facilities for data collection and forecast and warning dissemination. The major analysis and prediction centres are the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre in Melbourne and the seven Regional Forecasting Centres, one in each State and the Northern Territory. Engineering, workshop and computing facilities that constitute an integral part of the observation, data collection and processing systems in the Bureau Head Office and the Regions are also key contributors to the output. These facilities include the joint Bureau-CSIRO High Performance Computing and Communications Centre (HPCCC).

National planning, management and coordination of the individual systems and activities, together with a number of central operations functions, resides with the Observations and Engineering Branch and the Central Operations and Systems Branch in the Bureau Head Office. The remaining operational activities are the responsibility of the Regional Offices and Field Meteorological Offices in each State and the Northern Territory.

To ensure the effective output of meteorological and related data and products, particular attention is given to regular monitoring and review of the Bureau's basic technical systems, the replacement of obsolescent systems and the introduction of new technologies via an ongoing re-equipment program, and regular liaison with users of the data and products of the basic systems to ensure their continued appropriateness and effectiveness.

Resource Use

Top of Page

The resources committed to Meteorological and Related Data and Products in 2000-01 are summarised in Table 3 and given in more detail in Table 4.

Table 4 Meteorological and Related Data and Products expenses and revenue ($'000) and staff level for 2000-01 compared with the actuals for 1999-2000 and with the 2000-01 Budget and Budget plus Additional Estimates appropriations.

	ACTUAL EXPENSES 1999-2000	BUDGET 2000-01	BUDGET & ADD. EST. 2000-01	ACTUAL EXPENSES & REVENUE 2000-01
	($'000)	($'000)	($'000)	($'000)
FINANCIAL
EXPENSES
Employee Expenses (Appropriation)	48,650	48,047	48,109	50,943
Employee Expenses (Section 31)	871	1,029	1,032	294
Supply of Goods and Services (Appropriation)	29,439	22,228	28,754	34,448
Supply of Goods and Services (Section 31)	1,012	1,561	2,078	1,704
Operating Leases Rentals	6,882	6,976	6,983	6,133
Depreciation	27,753	32,031	32,048	27,272
Other Goods and Services Expenses	0	0	0	0
(WMO Contribution)	0	0	0	0
Capital Use Charge	12,585	19,070	21,633	0*
TOTAL PRICE OF OUTPUT	127,191	130,942	140,637	120,795
REVENUE
Appropriation	120,685	128,352	137,487	137,487
Sale of Goods and Services	2,103	2,590	3,110	3,110
Miscellaneous - other	41	0	40	40
TOTAL REVENUE	122,829	130,942	140,637	140,637
STAFFING
- Funded from Employee Expenses (Appropriation)	690.2	693.0	694.0	687.9
- Funded from Supplier Expenses (Appropriation)	12.2	16.7	16.7	18.2
- Funded from Section 31 Receipts	6.9	6.9	6.9	5.4
- Funded from Capitalised Salaries (Asset Replacement)	62.6	68.0	68.0	67.3
TOTAL STAFFING	771.9	784.6	785.6	778.7

* In 2000-01, Capital Use Charge was not accounted as an expense.

Performance

Performance during 2000-01 was assessed at two levels in terms of the:

· quality, quantity and price of the outputs directed to the achievement of the planned outcome relative to the agreed target levels; and

· contribution of the outputs to the achievement of the planned outcome.

The measures used as a basis for performance assessment were as published in the Portfolio Budget Statements 2000-01 for the Environment and Heritage Portfolio (Budget Related Paper No. 1.7). The performance for 2000-01 against each of the performance measures and targets for quality, quantity and price of outputs is summarised in Appendix 11.

The main strategies used to achieve the planned outcome in 2000-01 were:

· to maintain the quantity and quality of outputs from the Bureau's basic systems and the efficiency of their production through systematic management of key technical assets and the introduction of new technologies as appropriate;

· to enhance the overall security and robustness of the Bureau's basic systems through appropriate maintenance, access and disaster recovery strategies;

· to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of forecasting operations throughout the Bureau through the development of the Forecast Streamlining and Enhancement Project, that has built on the successful implementation of the Australian Integrated Forecast System (AIFS), to exploit the full potential of advanced prediction systems made possible by continuing improvements in supercomputer access and new observing technologies; and

· to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of external access to the Bureau's data and products consistent with the Government On-line Strategy, with a greater emphasis on meta-data and data management standards.

The contribution to achievement of the planned outcome during 2000-01, assessed in terms of the indicators listed in Appendix 12, is reviewed below for each of the individual outputs (Observational Data, and Processed Data and Products), drawing on the performance information summarised in Appendix 11.

Observational Data

Top of Page

Observations

The Bureau operates an efficient, integrated observations program that is designed to meet the data requirements of its research and services outputs, as well as its other national and international commitments. Particular emphasis is placed on ensuring that the quality of data is maintained to the exacting levels required for the national climate record and its use as an essential basis for community planning and decision-making in support of the goals of sustainable development.

The network extends throughout the Australian region, including territories in Antarctica and the Indian and Pacific Oceans, using observational systems operated by Bureau staff, volunteers and contractors. Observations from this network are supplemented by data from automatic weather stations, drifting buoys, aircraft, ships, meteorological satellites and weather watch radars. In addition to the conventional meteorological variables such as wind, temperature, humidity, rainfall and pressure, specialised data on radiation, ozone and other chemical constituents relating to the enhanced greenhouse effect and depletion of the ozone layer, and ocean temperature, waves and currents are also collected. The main components of the observation network are summarised in Table 5.

The program is planned and coordinated from within the Bureau's Head Office Observations and Engineering Branch, but the majority of operational activities are implemented through its Regional Offices. Specialised activities such as the satellite and atmosphere watch programs, major equipment installations and some aspects of the marine program are managed directly from within the Head Office.

Table 5 The main components of the Bureau's observation network as at 30 June in each year from 1998 to 2001.

Type of station/observation Number in Network

The Bureau benchmarks its observation performance against the criteria, standards and methods set by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for obtaining meteorological observations. The large uninhabited area within the Australian observing region, however, including the surrounding oceans, presents major obstacles for the Bureau in achieving the network density specified by the WMO. Fortunately, the standards for quality and frequency of data are more practically achievable. In recent years, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) has been defined at a density and frequency sufficient to enable large-scale long-term trends and changes in climate to be detected and monitored. The observing requirements of the Australian component of GCOS were also taken into account when establishing performance targets for the Bureau's Observations Program.

This year saw a general increase in the percentage of scheduled observations performed on time and within prescribed accuracy limits within the surface, upper air and space-based networks. Performance targets of 85-95 per cent of scheduled observations were met or exceeded for the upper air wind measuring network (88 per cent, as for last year), for the surface synoptic network (90 per cent, up from 88 per cent last year), for the spaced-based network (97 per cent, down from 98 per cent last year) and for the atmosphere watch networks (85-99 per cent). Though marked improvement in the quality of the upper air temperature and humidity (radiosonde) observations was evident again this year, the performance of upper wind observations continued to decline relative to target owing, inter alia, to difficulties experienced in staffing several remote observing stations.

Automation was again a key element of the strategy for improving the density, reliability and efficiency of the network. The number of surface synoptic stations continued to increase during 2000-01 through the accelerated installation of automatic weather stations (AWS), with 34 installed this year and an additional 29 AWS (research and semi-operational) installed in previous years but now fully operational, and therefore included in network numbers. Some AWS were also fitted with automatic cloud-base and cloud-amount detectors, in the form of laser ceilometers, to fulfil some of the cloud observation functions of the observing station. The cooperative network, however, continued to be very important for ensuring a wide geographic coverage of the continent and the provision of valuable visual observations.

Achieving defined quality standards is an important element of ensuring that observed data meet the needs of users. During 2000-01, data quality procedures within the observations program were increasingly automated, in line with the increasing proportion of data collected in digital format. However, the condition of instrumentation and the competence of observers continued to be critical to ensuring data quality overall. Substantial resources were dedicated to inspection visits by specialised regional staff to stations and facilities, and to regular training and refresher programs, in order to maintain the necessary observing standards. The Bureau's central laboratories continued to play a critical role in maintaining the quality of observed data through the maintenance of instrumental performance and calibration standards.

The electronic field book, an innovative laptop data entry system which was developed in-house by the Bureau to replace the traditional handwritten observation entries and which became operational in 1999-2000, delivered substantial benefits to the observing program this year. The electronic field book greatly improved the quality of data entered in real time into the climate data bank and substantially reduced training requirements for cooperative observers. In addition, the system proved to be very reliable in operation.

Data quality management and network efficiency were further enhanced with the continued development of SitesDb, a relational database designed in-house to manage current and historical metadata and sensor calibration information. The SitesDb system attracted great interest amongst international experts in instrument and observational data management when the system was displayed at the WMO Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation (CIMO) Technical Conference in Beijing in October. The development of a Web-based version of SitesDb allowed easier access by all staff and full implementation throughout the network, providing a sound management tool for tracking performance indicators of quality and quantity for many program outputs.

The Bureau increased its emphasis on improved performance in marine meteorological and oceanographic observations. As well as maintaining current levels of Voluntary Observing Ships (84), Expendable Bathythermograph releases (on 6 shipping lines) and drifting buoys (18 deployed) and expanding its network of marine-specific Automatic Weather Stations (now 5 ships), the Bureau collaborated with the UK, USA and a consortium of European National Meteorological Services to commence the first regular weather balloon releases from ships in the southern hemisphere. The Worldwide Recurring ASAP Project (WRAP) is an initiative of WMO to extend the long established ASAP (Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme) outside the Northern Hemisphere and provide valuable upper air information in data sparse southern hemisphere oceans. The first WRAP vessel was fitted out in Tillbury, England, by staff of the UK Meteorological Office with US-supplied equipment. Australia contributed to consumable funding and provided expertise for coordination of the southern hemisphere component of the voyage. The vessel arrived in Melbourne on its inaugural WRAP voyage on 6 May. In addition to the normal surface weather reports, this new initiative enables the vessel to provide two upper-atmosphere radiosonde soundings per day while en route between Europe - Cape of Good Hope - Australia - New Zealand - Cape Horn - Brazil - Europe, as shown on the map at Figure 15. Australia is funding the regular program in the Indian and Southern Oceans and part of the Tasman Sea. Other southern hemisphere countries will be encouraged to contribute to the operational costs in their waters, while operations in the northern hemisphere are the responsibility of the European Union. An analysis of the contribution to the Bureau's forecasting performance during the initial trial indicated a very promising return for the modest investment involved.

Figure 15. The route of the inaugural WRAP(Worldwide Recurring ASAP Project) ship, the MV Palliser Bay. The total voyage lasts around 85 days of which 55 are spent in the southern hemisphere.

Photo A wind distorted balloon ready for manual launch on board the first WRAP vessel, the MV Palliser Bay.

Eighteen drifting buoys (nine Bureau-owned, nine from other nations) were deployed by Australia during 2000-01, six above target. The target for the average life of these drifting buoys to report surface pressure is two years, but the achieved average lifetime for buoys that ceased operating in 2000-01 was only one year, owing to premature failure of some of the buoys prior to, or on, deployment. Australia benefited during the year through the efforts of MeteoFrance and the South African Weather Bureau, who deployed additional buoys in the Southern Indian Ocean.

The number of river height stations telemetering data for flood warning services grew during the year in response to user demand for new and improved services and in accordance with plans to meet this demand negotiated through the individual state Flood Warning Consultative Committees and the cooperative arrangements in place for providing flood warning services. The total number of sites from which data were provided (including sites operated by other agencies) grew from 1532 at the end of last year to 1667, well ahead of target owing to unexpected availability of data from other agencies as well as the commissioning of new sites.

Significant use was made of remotely sensed satellite data to complement the data available from surface-based networks. Australia continued to benefit substantially from the operational meteorological satellite programs of other countries such as Japan, China, the USA and the European Union. Japan's geostationary meteorological satellite GMS-5 continued to be the most important source of satellite data for the Bureau. Following the unfortunate loss of its planned replacement (the Multifunctional Transport Satellite, MTSAT) in late 1999, GMS-5 has been maintained in operations well beyond its 5-year design life. The scanning mirror mechanism on GMS-5, used to provide the full disk images of earth has been gradually degrading so that the frequency and coverage of full earth disk images has been reduced as an essential measure to keep the satellite in operation as long as possible. With a replacement not scheduled for launch until 2003, the Bureau developed contingency plans to cover the possibility of early GMS-5 failure.

The Bureau contributed to the various overseas satellite programs through the operation of satellite ground stations and satellite data utilisation and training activities. The Bureau maintained 12 fully operational satellite ground stations during 2000-01. This was one more than the nominated target, following the successful commissioning of a NOAA reception system at the Bureau satellite ground station facility at Crib Point, 70 km south of Melbourne. The system enables the Bureau to continue to receive data from several polar orbiting satellites that are important for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and other applications, particularly in the event of the untimely partial or complete failure of GMS-5.

The Bureau continued its participation in a collaborative GMS Pathfinder Project, the objective of which is to provide a high quality data set suitable for climate analysis and research. The project involves the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and a number of universities, and is being conducted with cooperation from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

China's geostationary meteorological satellite FY-2B became fully operational in January, providing excellent images from its vantage point over longitude 105 degrees east, to complement those of GMS-5. Unfortunately, following a routine eclipse operation (when the satellite goes into the earth's shadow and solar power is unavailable) in late February, regular imagery transmissions ceased. China remains committed to its geostationary satellite program, but in the meantime its FY-1C polar orbiting meteorological satellite continues to operate well.

The Bureau continued to take a lead role, both nationally and internationally, in efforts to ensure access by the meteorological and remote sensing communities, including especially WMO and satellite operators, to radiofrequency bands that are of critical importance for many essential meteorological operations. There is strong competition worldwide for use of the limited radiofrequency bands. Threats to GMS/MTSAT and FY-2 meteorological satellite operations in the 1683-1690 MHz band, arising from strong proposals for use of this band by mobile satellite telephone operators, were countered through Bureau representation and technical studies in cooperation with WMO and members of the world meteorological and space science communities.

In order to promote the exchange of meteorological satellite data in the Asia-Pacific region and international cooperation in data utilisation, the Bureau hosted the Third Meeting on Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilisation in January 2001. Participants attended from Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong (China), Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Singapore and USA and included representatives of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and space agencies, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Japan's National Space Development Agency. Major satellite operators, such as USA, Japan, China and Korea, shared plans on ongoing and future satellite systems, and new techniques for satellite data applications, including assimilation into numerical weather prediction models, were described. The meeting developed recommendations on the use of the Internet and the Global Telecommunications System (GTS) in the sharing of satellite data.

Delivery of satellite data and products to the Australian public was improved through a major upgrade of the satellite component of the Bureau's web site.

The Bureau continued its planning for major involvement in the United States' Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) collaborative satellite program, which will provide very high horizontal and vertical resolution temperature and moisture profiles in the atmosphere as well as observations of chemical constituents. GIFTS will be launched in 2005 and is expected to herald a major advance in weather forecasting since it will produce 16,384 accurate soundings (atmospheric profiles) every 10 seconds over a regional area 512 km by 512 km. GIFTS coverage of the Indian Ocean, which is relatively data-sparse in terms of satellite coverage, is of vital importance to the understanding, modelling and prediction of Australian weather and climate.

The Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (CGBAPS) in north-western Tasmania continued to fulfil its responsibilities as one of a small number of strategically located global stations under the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). The GAW serves as an early warning system to detect further changes in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and gases that affect the ozone layer, as well as other constituents that influence climate, and to monitor the long-range transport of pollutants (Figure 16 and 17). The station's core programs contributed observations of important greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and tropospheric ozone; of carbon isotopes, carbon monoxide, hydrogen, the oxygen/nitrogen ratio, oxides of nitrogen, dimethyl sulfide, particulates and radon; of precipitation chemistry; and of solar and terrestrial radiation, as well as the conventional meteorological elements.

Figure 16. Cape Grim record of carbon dioxide in clean (background) air since 1976. Concentrations of this important greenhouse gas have continued to rise. (Courtesy CSIRO Atmospheric Research)

Figure 17. Cape Grim record of CFC-11 in clean (background) air. The reduction in concentration of this significant ozone depleting substance since the early 1990s resulted from the international protocols established in the 1980s. (Courtesy of CSIRO Atmospheric Research)

The Bureau implemented improvements to its radiation monitoring program during 2000-01. A network of stations equipped with thermopile radiometers typically monitor direct, diffuse and global solar and terrestrial exposure and spectral irradiance. During the year, equipment at seven sites was upgraded and the remainder will be done progressively. In order to ensure that the measurements from the network conformed to the World Radiometric Reference, two Bureau scientists participated in the WMO's ninth International Pyrheliometer Comparison.

The Bureau contributed to maintaining a high level of community awareness and concern about the ozone layer and the Antarctic ozone hole. Total ozone measurements were made on a regular basis using the Bureau's network of Dobson spectrophotometers and, in addition, weekly observations of the vertical distribution of ozone were made using balloon-borne ozonesondes flown from Melbourne. A four-year pilot project of ozonesonde observations at Macquarie Island, which finished in June 2000, was extended by one year with the intention of integrating it into the operational program.

Engineering

Top of Page

The Bureau has a substantial inventory of complex technical facilities distributed across the Australian region, including some 59 Meteorological Offices, many in regional Australia and the Territories. Most of these sites contain specialised facilities for meteorological observations and telecommunications and for the provision of information to users of Bureau services. Additionally, there are weather watch radars, meteorological satellite reception stations, automatic weather stations and other installations, often in remote and inaccessible sites. The engineering support function involves the maintenance of this equipment inventory and the installation of new and replacement facilities when required. Engineers and technical officers working from the Bureau's Head Office and Regional Offices, and utilising external contractors when appropriate, provide the specialised skills and knowledge to perform this work. These skills are also used to great effect in support of aid programs to other National Meteorological Services in the region, particularly in the South-West Pacific and South-East Asia, and in commercial projects, often overseas, through the Bureau's Special Services Unit.

Major engineering achievements during 2000-01 included the:

· installation of 34 new automatic weather stations;

· installation of the new weather radar at Wyndham;

· installation of a wind profiler at Shanes Park, Sydney;

· installation of automatic weather balloon sounding facilities (Autosondes) at Moree, Kalgoorlie and Woomera;

· upgrade of the remote weather balloon launching facility at Willis Island;

· construction of new meteorological offices and installation of equipment at Weipa and Darwin Airports; and

· provision of specialist engineering support and engineering advice to National Meteorological Services in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.

Photo - The weather radar network was expanded with the installation of a WF100 radar at Wyndham. The radar became operational in April 2001.

In addition, the new Doppler radar that was installed in 1999-2000 at Kurnell near Sydney was commissioned on 24 August by the Hon. Dr Sharman Stone MP, Parliamentary Secretary with responsibility for the Bureau.

The effective operation of the Bureau's extensive observation networks relies upon the satisfactory installation and maintenance of observation equipment and facilities within time and cost constraints. Following a rigorous annual planning exercise, schedules and budgets were established for all new facilities, strategic upgrades and ongoing maintenance. The performance of the engineering support function is measured by the extent to which planned installations and replacements are achieved within schedule and budget, and by the effectiveness of maintenance activities in ensuring the reliable operation of equipment. Statistics of equipment faults and maintenance performance are maintained through an interactive computer-based information system, which allows staff to maintain records of all aspects of their engineering work. The resulting database allows monitoring of faults and rectification procedures, providing important performance information, and leading to more effective management of equipment maintenance. In this way, comprehensive statistics are built up to monitor procedural efficiencies and effectiveness and to benchmark these against previous years and against international standards.

During 2000-01, all equipment installations that were not delayed by external influences were completed on time, within budget and to user requirements. Where influences external to the Bureau forced delays, plans were adjusted within established budgetary constraints. All major equipment faults were repaired according to the Bureau's equipment maintenance strategy, which establishes a priority for repair, based on the criticality of the site for the successful delivery of services in the short-term (days to weeks). Equipment outages at high priority sites, including those critical for monitoring severe weather events, such as tropical cyclones, and for supporting aviation operations, were kept to a minimum this year, and the average duration of significant outages of all major items of field equipment was between four and eight days. Figure 18 shows the average duration of outage per year from 1990 to 2001 for automatic weather stations and weather watch radars. The main influences on outage time were the availability of staff and/or spare parts and the location of the equipment.

The number of faults per automatic weather station per year decreased this year, to an average of 2.3, as the equipment replacement program, funded through the Government response to the 1996 Review of the Operation of the Bureau of Meteorology, continued to take effect. The incidence of faults within the weather watch radar network, however, remained high, averaging about 4.5 faults per radar per year owing to the increasing age profile of the equipment and the fact that many are in use 24 hours a day.

Figure 18. The average duration of outage per calender year from 1990 to 2001 for (top) automatic weather stations and (bottom) weather watch radars.

Processed Data And Products

Top of Page

Communications

Telecommunications systems and services are a vital part of the Bureau's integrated operational infrastructure. The Bureau operates and manages its own specialised telecommunications systems making use of services leased from telecommunications carriers. The collection of meteorological observations, often from remote locations, the exchange of data and products between Bureau offices, and the dissemination of the Bureau's services such as forecasts, warnings and specialised products, all depend on reliable and effective telecommunications facilities.

The capacity of the Bureau's telecommunications network, Weathernet, was enhanced during the year to improve capabilities for information exchange within the Bureau. Weathernet connects the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) in Melbourne with each of the seven capital city Regional Forecasting Centres (RFCs), the Canberra and Townsville Meteorological Offices, the Sydney Airport Meteorological Unit, the Antarctic Meteorological Centre at Casey, eight Weather Service Offices, almost all other Field Meteorological Offices and many radar sites. Weathernet provides approximately 90 inter-office communication links and is implemented mainly on Telstra's Accelerate Frame Relay service. An additional link between Melbourne and Sydney was implemented in September 2000 via an Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) service provided by PowerTel. The Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) supports the various communications applications carried on Weathernet, for exchange of operational data and products, as well as providing organisation-wide access to a large range of information from the Bureau's internal 'Intranet' and the global Internet.

Facilities for automatic generation of voice content for recorded telephone weather services were implemented in all seven Bureau Regional Offices with the full installation of automatic text-to-speech (TTS) systems. The TTS system makes use of concatenated human voice and will support the operation of recorded telephone weather services available via 1300 and 1900 numbers. Following an open tendering process in early 2001, Legion Interactive Pty Ltd was selected to operate these services from August 2001.

Significant progress was achieved during the year on plans for new facilities for radio broadcast of marine information, with a view to ensuring continuity of the current service level. Existing marine radio services provided by Telstra are planned to close on 30 June 2002, as a result of major changes to marine safety services provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA). Radio facsimile broadcasts through Royal Australian Navy transmitters are also expected to close around June 2002. In order to maintain existing voice and radio facsimile services, the Bureau has contracted Television New Zealand to construct two new radio transmitting stations at Wiluna (Western Australia) and Charleville (Queensland) with associated control equipment at the AMSA Rescue Coordination Centre in Canberra. It is planned that the new facilities will be completed in time to ensure continuity of service when the Telstra and Navy systems close.

Demand for data and products delivered through the Australian Meteorological Data and Information Service System (AMDISS) continued to grow during 2000-01. AMDISS supports the Bureau's web site (http://www.bom.gov.au), through which it offers a comprehensive suite of information for free access as part of the Bureau's basic service, as well as a range of information and products available for access by accredited users under cost recovery arrangements. A major addition to the basic service during the year was the provision of static radar images and short sequence loops from 42 radars around Australia. Because of the high demand for radar products, arrangements were made with an external provider, Connect.com, to provide web-hosting services for the radar products. The average monthly hit rate for 2000-01 was 28 million, with peak periods coinciding with the tropical cyclone season and the introduction of the radar service. The maximum monthly hit count reached almost 60 million in March 2001 (Figure 19). The Bureau web site consistently rated in the top three Government sites in Australia for the year.

Figure 19. Monthly hits (millions) to the Bureau's web site from January 1997 to June 2001, with notable tropical cyclone events and commencement of the radar service marked.

Melbourne, as one of the three World Meteorological Centres (WMC) of the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW), along with Moscow and Washington, continued to play a pivotal role in the communication of WWW data and products to the world meteorological community, particularly in WMO Region V (SW Pacific).

Improvements made to the Bureau's international communication links during 2000-01 included:

· re-establishment of the Melbourne-New Delhi link, which was discontinued in 1998 owing to technology limitations;

· upgrade of the Melbourne-Bracknell (UK) link to carry additional satellite data; and

· establishment of a new Internet based link to Port Vila.

By the end of 2000-01, eleven international links were operational from Melbourne:

· to Tokyo, Bracknell, Jakarta, Noumea, Nadi and Singapore via dedicated links using either international private lines or Frame Relay services; and

· to Wellington, Port Moresby, Port Vila, Honiara and New Delhi via the Internet.

The major elements of this Global Telecommunications System (GTS) are shown in Figure 20.

The Bureau's Computer Message Switching System (CMSS) continued to underpin Australia's role in the exchange of meteorological information. CMSS receives and forwards meteorological data (reports) and processed products both domestically and internationally.

Figure 20. The major telecommunications links of the Global Telecommunications System of the World Meteorological Organization World Weather Watch, showing the interregional and regional circuits (thin lines) and the Main Telecommunications Network (bold lines).

The Bureau's mission critical communications systems are Weathernet, Local Area Networks supporting operational areas, the Computer Message Switching System, Digital Facsimile System, Australian Meteorological Data and Information Service System and connections to the Global Telecommunications System. An extensive survey of internal Bureau users, which focussed specifically on the performance of the mission critical communications systems, indicated an overall user satisfaction level of 95 per cent (rating of three or better on a five-point scale, where three indicates satisfactory).

The timely and accurate transmission of meteorological observations, exchange of data and graphical information between Bureau offices and dissemination of the Bureau's services, such as forecasts, warnings and specialised products, are dependent on the effective and efficient operation of the Bureau's communication systems. During 2000-01, 95 per cent of surface data and 97 per cent of upper air data were received at the NMOC before the nominated cut-off times for input into the Bureau's analysis and prediction systems. Ninety-five percent of the output products from the established models were delivered to the RFCs before the scheduled deadlines for dissemination, but there were some delays in the delivery of outputs from the newly implemented high resolution model. Overall, performance levels were more than sufficient for the effective communication of meteorological information, forecasts and warnings to users.

Computing

Top of Page

The Bureau's computing infrastructure includes the central computing systems, which are an integral part of the operations of the NMOC and which support the large scale numerical modelling research in the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, distributed computing systems as part of other specialised facilities and programs, and the computing systems which support the Bureau's regional operations.

The joint Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO High Performance Computing and Communications Centre (HPCCC) continued to provide reliable and efficient high performance computing services in support of the operational and research needs of both organisations. The HPCCC exists to facilitate research across many divisions of the CSIRO and to support the research and operations of the Bureau of Meteorology. The daily operation of the Bureau's numerical weather prediction models underpins the delivery of basic services including public weather forecasts, aviation and marine forecasts and severe weather warning services such as tropical cyclone warnings. The Bureau also utilises the HPCCC systems for climate prediction and greenhouse modelling. The NEC SX-4 system was upgraded during the year to a dual node SX-5 system comprising 24 Central Processing Units (CPUs), 224 Gigabytes of main memory and approximately 2300 Gigabytes of high speed disk (Figure 21). The overall processor rating of the system is now 192 GFLOPs (billion floating-point operations per second). The processing capacity will be further increased in July 2001 to 32 CPUs, providing a processing power of 256 GFLOPs.

Figure 21. - The HPCCC supercomputing network, featuring the dual-node NEC SX-5 system.

Further upgrade to the Hierarchical Archive Mass Storage system took place during the year to satisfy the growing demand for storage of numerical weather prediction (NWP) products. The Bureau's tape libraries currently support about 35 Terabytes of on-line storage. The current archive including on line and near line storage is approximately 140 Terabytes and is growing at a rate of approximately 30 Terabytes per annum. The growth rate can be expected to increase in the future as NWP model resolution increases. Fourteen additional tape drives were added to the Bureau's main tape library system and a new Meteorological Archive and Retrieval System (MARS) was installed. MARS, which was developed at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, will provide greatly improved access to meteorological data for operational and research staff.

The Australian Integrated Forecast System (AIFS) provides the computing infrastructure in the Bureau's Regional Offices to support the collection and storage of observations, display of various types of meteorological, oceanographic and hydrological data and forecast guidance, preparation of output products and dissemination to users. During 2000-01, the AIFS was enhanced to support the highly detailed forecasts required for the 2000 Olympics and Paralympics, and a temporary AIFS-equipped forecasting office was set up at Rushcutters Bay on Sydney Harbour for the Olympic Sailing events. Despite the extraordinary load on the Sydney AIFS, response times were acceptable and there were no significant system failures during the Games.

Considerable progress was made during the year in the development of the next generation of AIFS software tools for streamlining the forecasting process and enhancing outputs. A prototype of the Australian Marine Forecasting System was released for forecaster evaluation and the first version of a new tropical cyclone forecasting module neared implementation. A new national summary product containing all current town and city forecasts became the first operational manifestation of the developing Forecast Database within AIFS, which will ultimately integrate all forecast, observed and guidance data.

Complementing the supercomputer and regional computing infrastructure is a set of mid-range servers in the central computing system. A major upgrade of the primary central computing system servers and the implementation of a modern shared disk storage facility were carried out during the year. When fully operational in 2001, these changes will improve the timeliness and volume of numerical modelling data available for the analysis and prediction function. User surveys of some mission critical computing systems, which commenced in 1999 and which were made more comprehensive and routine in 2000-01, revealed that 91 per cent of internal Bureau users rated the central and regional computing systems as satisfactory or better.

Analysis of outage times for mission critical computing systems showed that the computing systems were extremely reliable through 2000-01, with an overall availability of the central systems of better than 99.99 per cent. The reliability of the AIFS remained high with an average availability across all regions of 99.78 per cent.

Analysis and Prediction

Top of Page

The analysis and prediction function embraces the basic meteorological analysis and prediction operations needed to support the provision of weather and climate services and to fulfil Australia's international obligations under the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization. The National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) in Melbourne, the seven Regional Forecasting Centres (RFCs) in the capital cities, the Townsville and Canberra Meteorological Offices and the Antarctic Meteorological Centre at Casey function as an integrated national network to produce a range of manual and automated guidance products which support the nationwide operational forecast and warning services provided by the Bureau.

Each RFC is responsible for detailed meteorological and related analysis and prediction for its State or Territory and adjacent ocean areas. The Darwin RFC has a special responsibility for the preparation of analysis and prediction products for the tropical region between the central Indian and the central Pacific Oceans. NMOC serves as the central operational hub, combining the roles of operational communications and computing with meteorological and oceanographic analysis and prediction functions. The computing resources provide the processing capacity for operation of the centralised numerical meteorological and oceanographic analysis and prediction systems, while the communications system is used for national and international data exchange and to disseminate generated products.

In order to meet the breadth of operational requirements for numerical guidance information, several operational analysis and prediction systems were run within NMOC. The systems delivered a range of products showing the current or predicted conditions in the atmosphere or ocean, with differing emphasis according to the various applications:

· the Global Assimilation and Prediction System (GASP) for predictions to seven days;

· the Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS) for more detailed one to two day predictions over the Australian region;

· a version of the LAPS especially adapted for tropical regions (TLAPS), including the capability to generate a fine mesh for the prediction of tropical cyclone movement and development;

· a fine scale version of LAPS (MESOLAPS) over Australia to provide more detail on flow patterns;

· an atmospheric transport model to provide predictions of the movement of atmospheric pollutants or volcanic ash;

· a sea state prediction model (WAM) which is applied to three domains (global, regional and southeast Australia);

· a sea surface and sub-surface temperature analysis system; and

· a long-range prediction system for sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean to assist in the preparation of the Bureau's seasonal outlooks.

The performance of the Bureau's analysis and prediction systems during 2000-01 was assessed according to a range of statistical measures of the accuracy of the centralised analysis and forecast guidance products.

For the global prediction system (GASP) anomaly correlation targets of 75 per cent, 55 per cent and 40 per cent were set for the 72, 120 and 168-hour Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) predictions respectively over the latitude bands from 20_S to 60_S. The anomaly correlation is the time-dependent correlation between the observed anomaly of a field (in this case MSLP) and the forecast of the anomaly, where the anomaly is defined with respect to the model's mean field, and is a common measure of skill in numerical weather prediction. The higher the correlation the better the predictive skill of the model. Figure 22 shows the time history of the anomaly correlations of the global prediction system for the three forecast periods from early 1998 to June 2001. This sequence follows a significant upgrade to the GASP model in 1996 and a long term trend has therefore not yet been established. The trend over the last two years has been quite weak but is now slightly upward and all three target levels were exceeded.

Figure 22. Anomaly correlation of 72 hour (top), 120 hour (middle) and 168 hour (bottom) mean sea level pressure (MSLP) predictions for 20_S to 60_S from the global assimilation and prediction system.

For the limited-area prediction system (LAPS), the performance measure identified was the gain over persistence in the 12-month running mean skill score for the 24-hour prediction of mean sea level pressure, for which a target of 30 points was set. The persistence prediction acts as a threshold for predictive skill. Thus the gain in the skill of the model over the skill of persistence is a measure of the improving accuracy of the model's predictions. Figure 23 shows the performance of the limited-area system as described by this measure from 1972 to June 2001. Starting from a difference of around eight skill points between persistence and the limited-area model in 1972, the difference has increased to just over 31 for this year. The large increase in skill since 1996 reflects a significant improvement in model resolution and physics made possible following an upgrade in supercomputing facilities.

Figure 23. Values of the S1 skill score, a measure of the errors in prediction, for 24-hour forecasts of mean sea level pressure from operational and persistence prognoses over the Australian region. The values shown are 12-month running means. The persistence predictions, based on the assumption that today's pattern will continue unchanged tomorrow, show relatively large errors and no long-term trend. The operational predictions from the Australian region analysis and prediction system have shown general improvement over time, with a strong improvement associated with the latest upgrade. The original base analysis used for verification purposes has been discontinued. The results during the overlap period show a slight shift in the measure of skill, but the trends are similar.

A system of forecast guidance, called Model Output Forecasts (MOFs), is also derived from the LAPS model. This system, which is based on a linear regression of historical predictions and near-current weather observations, provides three-hourly predictions of weather elements out to 48 hours for 447 sites throughout Australia. These predictions are used as guidance by the RFCs in their provision of detailed weather forecasts. The statistical performance measure identified for this system was the annual average root mean square error of the 24-hour MOFs of maximum and minimum temperatures, averaged over all States. Figure 24 shows the annual average root mean square of the 24-hour MOFs of maximum and minimum temperature for all capital cities and the national average for the period 1995 to 2000. Averaged over all capital cities, the error in both maximum and minimum temperatures increased slightly in 2000, reaching 2.4 and 2.1_C respectively. This was due to a lag between improvements in the LAPS model and recalibration of the statistical relationships between model output and forecast temperatures. A new method of deriving temperature forecasts from computer models is being developed to allow model improvements to be translated into forecast improvements without significant lag.

Figure 24. Annual average root mean square (RMS) error in the 24-hour Model Output Forecast (MOF) maximum and minimum temperatures, averaged across all capital cities, from 1995 to the present.

Improvements were made to the oceanographic prediction system during the year, including an increase, from 3 degrees latitude to one degree, in the resolution of the global WAM, using finer scale winds and improvements to the configuration of the sea state models and bathymetry data. The Australian region sea state model performed effectively during 2000-01, with the annual average root mean square (rms) error in the 24-hour predictions of sea state, averaged over all available Australian instrumented wave observations, attaining better than target levels (Figure 25). Figure 25 also shows the increase in the number of available observations from wave-rider buoys from January 1999 to the present.

Figure 25. Verification statistics for the Australian region sea state model showing the number of wave-rider buoy observations and the annual average root mean square error in the 24-hour forecasts of sea state.

The NMOC contributed positively to the improved quality of services during 2000-01, in part through implementation of a number of specific model enhancements, including:

· conversion of operational systems from the NEC SX-4 supercomputer to the newer SX-5 and upgrades of the mid-range servers which make the supercomputer output accessible to users;

· improved application of satellite temperature profiles in the global model; and

· the introduction of ultraviolet radiation forecast graphs for capital cities.

The special requirements for weather support of the 2000 Olympics were met with the introduction of a high resolution (5 km) model around Sydney (later implemented for the Melbourne region as well); enhanced visualisations of model predictions of cloud and rain; provision of atmospheric transport fields; and location-specific forecasts for the Olympic venues derived from the numerical model output.

Data and images from satellites are essential to the analysis and prediction function, and the development and implementation of applications of satellite data are important responsibilities of the NMOC. Achievements during the year included the conversion of the Normalised Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) to use data from the NOAA-16 satellite; operational implementation of a system for deriving wind observations from satellite-observed cloud drift; and trialling of mosaic images using polar-orbiting and neighbouring geostationary satellites in preparation for the expected degradation of imagery from GMS-5.

Since 1995, the NMOC has served as a WMO Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Environmental Emergency Response (EER), with responsibility for providing advice on the atmospheric transport of pollutants resulting from nuclear disasters, volcanic eruptions, forest fires, chemical incidents and other causes. The atmospheric transport prediction system continued to be maintained in a state of readiness so that requests for advice could be satisfied quickly. During the year, the atmospheric transport model was extended to operate at smaller scales (5 km) and a basic facility to assist with planning for foot and mouth disease outbreaks was implemented. The RSMC took part in a full global trial involving meteorological services, national atomic energy agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency on 22-23 May 2001.

Efforts to enhance the effectiveness of NMOC guidance and the overall efficiency of NMOC operation continued, with particular achievements including the implementation of screen-based synoptic analysis and field modification software (Figure 26); the implementation of Help Desk software to improve the capabilities of operational staff in supporting the delivery of products and services; web access to archives of radar and synoptic charts; and an expanded range of products for countries in the South-east Asian and South-west Pacific region available through registered user web pages.

Figure 26. A product of the on-screen analysis system introduced into NMOC. The system, known as Horace, originated in the UK Met Office.

User surveys to assess the value of forecast guidance products began in 1999 and were extended in 2000-01. The overall performance of the NMOC and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in Darwin was assessed and 86 per cent of regional forecasters rated them as satisfactory or better (rating of three or higher on a five point scale).

Previous Chapter | Back to Index | Next Chapter