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The 2000-01 financial year has been a time of challenge and achievement for the Bureau of Meteorology. The challenges have mainly been those of staffing, resource allocation, workload prioritisation, policy review and governance. The achievements have been multifaceted and substantial across the spectrum of Bureau operations including infrastructure modernisation, research, systems development and service provision with the widely acclaimed highlights being the comprehensive meteorological support provided for the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games and the major increases in access and application of meteorological information, especially radar imagery, available on the Bureau web site and through other channels.
The weather of 2000-01 was dominated by the influence of a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific with much of Australia experiencing a wet year, particularly in the north, with frequent episodes of heavy rain and flooding. But, although southern Victoria and most of Tasmania experienced some wet intervals, the total falls were insufficient to make up for the accumulated rainfall deficiencies of the past five years.
While most of the Bureau's round the clock operations continued throughout the year, albeit with significant staff and funding pressures in many areas, the senior management of the Bureau were heavily committed for most of the period in addressing several major issues of meteorological policy, resourcing and governance. These included :
· an Output Pricing Review (OPR) carried out in conjunction with the Department of Finance and Administration;
· management of the various phases of Bureau participation in the Whole of Government Information Technology Outsourcing Initiative;
· implementation of a new accrual-based Financial Management System;
· contribution to a number of parliamentary and other inquiries including especially a Productivity Commission Inquiry into Cost Recovery by Commonwealth Agencies, which has particular significance for the overall policy/funding framework for the future operation of the Bureau; and most significantly
· a Strategic Assessment of the operating environment of the Bureau carried out over the period November 2000 to April 2001, on the initiative of the Parliamentary Secretary, by a team of external consultants.
The Bureau's achievements over the past year in the areas of infrastructure modernisation, meteorological research, systems development and service provision were focussed particularly on :
· installation of a wide range of new and replacement facilities including automatic weather stations, upper air observing offices and weather radars;
· a major upgrade of the Bureau's central computing facility leading to an increased capability for weather and climate model development and operation;
· provision of improved public access to many sources of meteorological information, including weather radar imagery, on the Bureau's already heavily accessed web site;
· preparation for introduction of a more efficient and more timely system for provision of recorded telephone weather services; and
· the provision of very high quality tailored meteorological services for the Sydney 2000 Olympics and Paralympics.
Most of the essential ongoing operations of the Bureau were maintained to acceptable standards with equipment serviceability and data volumes either holding level or increasing, forecast skill generally maintaining its long term improving trend and public access to, and use of, the various services continuing to expand rapidly, especially so in the case of the Internet based services. An overview of the long term trends of a selection of general output indicators is shown in Figure 12 by way of demonstration of the slow but steady progress in Australian meteorological science and service provision that has been maintained despite the significant real reductions in resources over recent decades. The corresponding input (resource use) indicators are summarised at the end of this chapter.
Figure 12. Some general indicators of Bureau performance over the 26-year period from 1975-76 to 2000-01. From the top, panel (a) shows that, after a sharp decline in the early 1970s, the basic network of cooperative observers has been largely maintained over the period while the introduction of new technology has enabled the surface observing network (and hence input data volume) to be enhanced through the progressive installation of automatic weather stations (AWS), under the reequipment and modernisation program initiated in the mid 1980s. Panel (b) shows the increased rate at which climatological records have been archived by the National Climate Centre over the past decade, following the implementation in 1988 of direct real-time ingestion of data. Panel (c) shows the steady improvements achieved in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model skill (decreasing prediction error indicated by lower S1 skill scores) as a result of improved model formulation and increased computer power, with the sharp decrease in prediction error in 1996-97 associated with major improvements in model physics and resolution made possible through upgraded supercomputing capacity. Panel (d) shows the gradual increase in weather forecast and warning accuracy, demonstrated through decreasing errors in both maximum temperature forecasts and tropical cyclone track forecasts. Panel (e) shows the trends over the past 25 years in direct community use of weather information (in addition to that provided through the mass media), highlighting the almost exponential growth in hits on the Bureau's Internet web site (shown on a compressed scale) over the past five years.
The purpose of the remainder of this chapter is to provide a more detailed overview of the performance of the Bureau over the past year, focussing in turn on :
· the highlights of achievement in each of the major areas of activity that make up the total integrated operation of the Bureau, from observation and data collection through research and service provision to its key role in the international cooperation on which its services so heavily depend;
· the major developments and changes in the management and organisation of the Bureau during 2000-01 including a summary of the internal management strategy employed during the year;
· an assessment of progress on each of the major undertakings identified a year ago as the corporate priorities of the Bureau for 2000-01;
· several major additional issues which the Bureau was called on to address during the year; and
· a summary of resource use for the year.
Although most areas of the Bureau continued to operate under heavy workload and other pressures in 2000-01, there were many highlights. In particular:
· Australia played a major role in the establishment of the first regular weather balloon releases from ships in the southern hemisphere under the WMO Worldwide Recurring ASAP (Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme) Project.
· A new weather watch radar was established at Wyndham, in north western Western Australia, to improve the detection and warning of heavy rain, thunderstorms and tropical cyclones in the coastal region between Darwin and Broome, and weather watch capability was added to the existing windfinding radar at Norfolk Island to improve weather services to the general public and especially to aircraft approaching the island in poor weather conditions.
· The new doppler radar at Kurnell, near Sydney, was officially commissioned by the Hon. Dr Sharman Stone MP, the Parliamentary Secretary with responsibility for the Bureau, on 24 August 2000. The new facility provides enhanced information on the rainfall and wind structure of thunderstorms, compared to conventional radar, and other severe weather and proved extremely useful to forecasters and researchers throughout the Olympic Games period.
Photo The Hon. Dr Sharman Stone MP, the Parliamentary Secretary with responsibility for the Bureau, officially commissioned the Kurnell Doppler Radar on 24 August 2000.
· Thirty-four automatic weather stations were installed across Australia to improve efficiency and coverage in monitoring surface weather elements.
· New meteorological offices were constructed at Weipa and Darwin Airports. They will provide low maintenance modern, energy efficient facilities for meteorological observations and the local provision of weather services.
· The Bureau hosted the Third Meeting on Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilisation. Participants from Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong (China), Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Singapore and the USA met to discuss and promote the exchange of meteorological satellite data in the Asia-Pacific region and international cooperation in data utilisation.
· A major upgrade to the Joint Bureau of Meteorology-CSIRO High Performance Computing and Communications Centre was implemented. The NEC SX-4 system was replaced by a dual node SX-5 system comprising 24 Central Processing Units (CPUs), 224 Gigabytes of main memory and approximately 2300 Gigabytes of high speed disk. The overall processor rating of the system was increased to 192 GFLOPs (billion floating point operations per second).
· Major upgrades were made to the Head Office Central Computing Facility (CCF), including replacement of the main data base servers with higher capacity machines, introduction of a Storage Area Network to support disk consolidation, implementation of a new data archive management system and introduction of new high speed networking links.
· Special data processing systems and network links were installed in support of the Sydney Olympics. This included provision of high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction model output supporting forecasting services for outdoor events, especially sailing. A high capacity (4 Mbps) communications link was implemented between Melbourne and Sydney and increased capacity was provided on the communications link to the Kurnell (Sydney) Doppler radar.
· The National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre provided meteorological advice in support of the single-handed round-the-world voyage of paraplegic sailor Vinnie Lauwers.
Photo - In August 2000, Vinnie Lauwers became the first physically disabled sailor to complete a single-handed round-the-world voyage. The Bureau, through the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre, provided meteorological support to him throughout the voyage.
· From September to November, an international forecast demonstration project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) was conducted in the New South Wales Regional Office of the Bureau. The project involved international state-of-the-art nowcasting (ie. very short range forecasting) systems from the USA, Canada and the UK as well as the Bureau's radar-based systems. Feedback from forecasters making use of the additional information, both during the Olympics and afterwards, affirmed the value of the information and the success of the project.
· Bureau scientists made a significant contribution to preparation of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with a BMRC scientist, Dr Bryant McAvaney, serving as Coordinating Lead Author for the chapter on the evaluation of models for use in climate change projection, detection and attribution studies.
· An upgraded version of the long-range transport and dispersion model (HYSPLIT) became operational in September. This system allows calculation of the likely trajectories of pollutants, such as smoke from bushfires and volcanic ash clouds, using input data from the operational atmospheric models.
· The Bureau received widespread appreciation for the successful provision of weather support services for the 2000 Olympic Games and Paralympics in Sydney. Seven years in the planning, the service addressed the specialised needs of competitors and officials in the various sports as well as the public-interest requirements of the large crowds of people that gathered at the numerous venues in and around Sydney. Features of the service included an enhanced observing network and several fully equipped forecasting offices at key venues, delivering a range of tailored forecast products including high resolution forecasts of weather and air quality.
Photo - Meteorologists inspect the site for the Sydney 2000 Olympics rowing, canoeing and kayaking events at Penrith. From left, Elly Spark, the Bureau's Project Manager for the Olympic Games Weather Service, Chris Ryan from the Bureau's Central Operations and Systems Branch, and Yannis Pappageorgiou and Dimitrios Ziakopoulous, forecasters from the Hellenic Meteorological Service, who participated as part of their preparations for the Athens Games in 2004. Elly Spark and Chris Ryan had previously participated in the forecasting team at the Atlanta Olympics in 1996, at the invitation of the US National Weather Service, as part of the planning and preparations for the Sydney Games.
· The Bureau's Basic Product Set was fully defined and promulgated on 1 August. The Basic Product Set is the list of Bureau products provided free of charge to the community through the mass media and on the World Wide Web.
· Public access to important real time weather information was increased through provision of an enhanced range of products accessible through the Bureau web site, including free access to weather radar imagery from 42 radars around Australia.
· Accesses to the Bureau web site trebled compared with the previous year, reaching an average monthly hit rate of 28 million after the introduction of the radar imagery.
· The first prototype of the Australian Marine Forecasting System (AMFS) was completed and evaluated by Bureau forecasting staff.
· The use of the Internet to access climate information grew substantially during the year. Visits to the Bureau's climate Web pages continued to rise and approached the 1.5 million mark for the year, with up to a quarter of these originating outside Australia.
· The seasonal temperature outlook service completed its first year of operation and demonstrated a useful level of skill.
· The Rainfall volume of the Climatic Atlas of Australia, which consists of a new set of average monthly and annual rainfall maps, was released. Available in digital form as well as hard copy, this represents the first published revision of these maps since 1975.
· In a joint project with the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Catchment Hydrology, the Bureau completed the Evapotranspiration volume of the Climatic Atlas of Australia.
· The Cli-Manage conference was held in Albury from 23-25 October and attracted one hundred and forty participants. A principal aim of Cli-Manage was to improve the ability of those in the agricultural, water resources and other climate-dependent sectors to make better informed decisions about activities influenced by climate variability.
· The Bureau's Deputy Director (Services), Dr Geoff Love, was elected President of the WMO Commission for Basic Systems.
· The Superintendent of Hydrology, Mr Bruce Stewart, was elected to the position of Vice President of the WMO Commission for Hydrology.
· The Bureau was an active participant in the first session of the new Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), which was jointly established by the WMO and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (of UNESCO). The Bureau played a key role in the establishment of JCOMM and in preparations for its first session in Iceland in June.
· The Japan-Australia Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) Joint Committee reached a milestone, with its 20th session hosted by the Bureau in Melbourne from 31 January to 2 February.
· All international obligations flowing from the Bureau's specific roles and responsibilities under the World Meteorological Organization, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO and the International Civil Aviation Organisation were fulfilled.
· The World Meteorological Day address was given by the Parliamentary Secretary with responsibility for the Bureau of Meteorology, the Hon. Dr Sharman Stone MP, and focused on the significant role in Bureau activities played by the 10,000 or so volunteer rainfall and river height observers, ships of opportunity observers and storm spotters.
Management of the Bureau through 2000-01 was broadly in accordance with an internal management strategy based firmly on the Bureau's longer-term corporate strategy, adjusted, as necessary, to accommodate the need for handling a number of major unanticipated external influences which came into play during the year.
Management Strategy
The Bureau's internal strategy for management of the organisation and delivery of its outputs through 2000-01 focussed particularly on:
· Management of the overall resource situation in the light of Government decisions, in the 2000-01 Budget context, on continued support for the Providing World Class Weather Forecasting initiative and on an ongoing level of funding for asset replacement, which together contribute importantly to establishing an appropriate base level of long-term funding for the public interest components of the Bureau's operations;
· Management of staffing levels to ensure the optimum use of available salaries funding during 2000-01 while moving towards a more balanced and efficient disposition of staff categories and numbers in the medium to long term;
· Development of a staffing strategy to ensure that the Bureau is well placed in terms of qualified, experienced staff to maintain and enhance operations and services over the next 5 to 10 years, during which a significant increase in the number of age retirements of senior staff across all major staff categories is expected;
· Integrated management of the Bureau's asset acquisition and replacement program to ensure the integrity of the Bureau's asset register and to establish that asset values correctly reflect their full cost;
· Further development and refinement of the integrated modernisation plan, Bureau of Meteorology Operations Beyond 2000, which was initially prepared in response to Recommendation 16 of the 1996 Slatyer I Report;
· Follow-up on other recommendations of the Slatyer I Report within the context of the Providing World Class Weather Forecasting initiative, including implementation of the specific projects and initiatives funded through the additional resources provided in the 2000-01 Budget and refinement of the plans for the period 2001-02 to 2002-03, pending government decision on maintenance of the improved level of service for subsequent years;
· Finalisation of the follow up on the Government response to the recommendations of the Slatyer II Report on Capturing Opportunities in the Provision of Meteorological Services and their implementation as key elements in the management of cost-recoverable services;
· Finalisation of matters arising from the Coroner's Inquiry and various reviews of the 1998 Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race;
· Implementation of the agreed recommendations of the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) audit, the Scientific and Technical Systems Review, and the Human Factors Management Review in the aftermath of the Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999;
· Updating progressively the systems and procedures used for the routine monitoring of performance against agreed service standards;
· Development and implementation of upgraded financial management systems to accommodate accrual accounting and reporting, the additional costing information necessary under the Government's competitive neutrality policy and the increased emphasis on revenue generation, including electronic commerce;
· Implementation of the Certified Agreement and, as appropriate, Australian Workplace Agreements for Bureau staff, especially in relation to the associated savings measures;
· Completion of reorganisations of the Head Office Observations and Engineering Branch (OEB) and Central Operations and Systems Branch (COSB);
· Completion of an evaluation of the International Activities Program under the Portfolio Program Evaluation Plan and of an Output Pricing Review, undertaken with the Department of Finance and Administration;
· Continued development of strategies and plans to respond to the Whole-of-Government approach to the management of IT systems, including outsourcing and clustering, to the extent appropriate to the Bureau;
· Further development of strategies for responding to other elements of the Government policy for market testing and/or benchmarking of functions and services;
· Further development of performance management in response to the new requirements under the accrual framework and in line with agreements reached as part of the Certified Agreement negotiations;
· Implementation of the agreed recommendations of the performance audit of the Bureau's weather services conducted by the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO);
· Implementation of the Bureau's consolidated programs on:
- Social Justice,
- Energy Management,
- Access and Equity, and
- Fraud Control;
· Identification of a set of Corporate Management Objectives reflecting the overall management strategy summarised above whose achievement in 2000-01 contributed towards the goals of the Corporate Strategy 2000-05; and
· Identification of the Bureau's Corporate Priorities for 2000-01 as the major initiatives, most involving a number of Programs, Outputs, Branches and Regions, which were agreed for priority attention during the year.
Organisational Structure
The principal changes to the Bureau's basic organisational and operational structure during 2000-01 occurred through the restructuring of the Observations and Engineering Branch (OEB) and the Central Operations and Systems Branch (COSB). Implementation of the planned OEB and COSB restructuring had been delayed pending full consideration of the implications of the findings and recommendations of the 1999-2000 evaluation of the Analysis and Prediction Program and the external review of the BMRC, particularly in the area of satellite meteorology, together with the potential impact of the Whole-of-Government Information Technology (IT) Outsourcing Initiative. During 2000-01, the OEB restructuring was fully implemented, providing a more flexible and more responsive structure to more effectively handle changes in function and resource pressures.
The key elements of the COSB restructuring were actioned during the year. The main changes were the establishment of the Data Management and Quality Control Section, amalgamation of the Regional Computing and Central Systems functions into the Meteorological Systems group and transfer of the satellite activities related to NWP modelling to the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC).
Output Structure
From the mid-1980s until 1998-99, the Bureau planned and reported against an output-based program structure derived directly from its goals and objectives. With the introduction of the Outcomes/Outputs framework in 1999-2000, the program structure was replaced by an output structure based on the Bureau's basic (output) objectives (Figure 3 and 4). There are strong similarities between the program and output structures, reflecting their common derivation from the Bureau's basic objectives. Appendix 4 provides a detailed mapping from the program framework used in Bureau Annual Reports up to 1998-99 to the output structure introduced in 1999-2000. Because of the flexibility and utility of the Bureau's program terminology, it has been retained in use in support of the output structure employed for planning, evaluation and reporting purposes. Organisational responsibilities for internal policy coordination in respect of the Bureau's seven Major Outputs were as shown in Figure 6. The Major Output of Meteorological and Related Data and Products is concerned with the development, maintenance and operation of the basic national meteorological infrastructure and its output of a wide range of real-time operational and archival data and products. The remaining Major Outputs focus on the provision of a series of downstream outputs including new scientific knowledge and all the services of the Bureau.
Significant progress was achieved on most of the major initiatives which the Bureau had identified as its corporate priorities for 2000-01 (cf pp 15-17). In summary:
Improved Service Charter
The report of the Departmental audit of the Service Charter conducted in May 2000 was published in September. The audit addressed the extent to which procedures are in place to effectively measure performance against the standards set out in the Service Charter. The audit recognised the Bureau's strong user focus and considered that, for most service standards, adequate measurement procedures exist. Nevertheless, several recommendations were made for improvement and were implemented progressively during 2000-01, as part of a coordinated weather services performance management program.
Amongst the performance management activities undertaken during the year was a survey of users who had provided comments or questions by way of the Bureau's web-based feedback service. The survey sought information from them on the quality of the service they had received in response to their feedback, including the timeliness and usefulness of the Bureau's replies. Information was also sought on attitudes to the Bureau's web site. Overall, the level of satisfaction expressed by users was high. Nevertheless, some areas for improvement were identified, most notably in relation to the speed with which some queries were responded to, as well as issues relating to the structure of the web site.
During 2000-01, a coordinated framework was developed for weather service performance management, consistent with the recommendations of the audit of the Service Charter. The framework includes the development and maintenance of an integrated and balanced set of indicators that address performance from both the external user and internal management perspectives. Procedures were also set in place to improve the sharing of weather services performance information amongst staff, including forecasting staff, with a view to enhancing the culture of continuous improvement.
Although a formal review of the Service Charter was planned for 2000-01, this was delayed while this coordinated performance management program was put in place. The Service Charter itself will now be updated to reflect the improved procedures and standards that have been established.
The Bureau's program of quarterly public user surveys continued to be strengthened and, in response to the Service Charter audit, some questions were added - and existing questions adjusted slightly - to elicit information on service performance more effectively. These surveys are an important means of obtaining performance information from external users and are being extended to other segments of the weather services user community (eg marine and aviation).
Restructuring of Aviation Weather Services
While the successful resolution in December 1999, of the long-standing legal challenge between Airservices Australia and Monarch Airlines concerning charging arrangements for services to civil aviation, helped to clarify the charging regime issue, competitive pressures in the industry continued to contribute an uncertain environment. The Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA), as part of its regulatory reform program, is undertaking a review of Civil Aviation Regulation CAR 120, which provides for authorisation for the provision of aviation meteorological services, and is considering a new regulation, CASR Part 174, which could provide standards relevant to the way such services are delivered. Late in the year, the New Zealand-based organisation, Metra, a subsidiary of the Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited (MetService), which has sought approval from the CASA to provide aviation-related meteorological services in Australia in competition with the Bureau, re-activated its complaint on this issue with the Commonwealth Competitive Neutrality Complaints Office (CCNCO). This complaint, originally lodged in February 2000, had been on hold pending the CASA review of CAR 120. CCNCO commenced an investigation of the complaint.
A number of possible options for restructure of the aviation weather service, including the option recommended in the Strategic Assessment (cf pp 39-40), were investigated during the year. Advice was obtained from the Australian Government Solicitor on the options and their consistency with Australia's obligations under the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation. This confirmed the efficacy of the current model with the Bureau acting as the meteorological expert in its role as Australia's designated meteorological authority under the Convention. Further clarification of major policy issues will be needed before restructuring, with consideration being given to identifying any areas in the service where competition could practically and beneficially be introduced.
GCOS/GOOS
Decisions of the Fourth and Fifth Sessions of the Conference of the Parties (COP4 and COP5) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), calling on Parties to address deficiencies and gaps in global climate monitoring systems, provided a new impetus and urgency for the implementation of both the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and relevant aspects of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The Bureau has taken a key role in Australia's response to these decisions. Key elements of the decisions, and of Australia's response, relate to:
· improvements in monitoring systems, including meeting the requirements appropriate to designated GCOS baseline stations in the GCOS Upper Air Network (GUAN) and the GCOS Surface Network (GSN) - during the year, all 16 designated Australian GUAN stations continued to operate within the specified requirement for soundings to attain heights of 5 hPa or higher. The Bureau improved the procedures for reporting routine CLIMAT messages from its designated GCOS Surface Network (GSN) stations and, by year end, all stations were compliant with reporting requirements. The Bureau also worked collaboratively with CSIRO Marine Research to extend the deployment of Argo ocean profiling floats in the Australian region;
· establishment of an intergovernmental mechanism for GCOS to advise on priorities for action in meeting UNFCCC climate monitoring requirements - the Bureau hosted the first informal meeting of national GCOS coordinators, in Melbourne, in August. In addition to Australia, six countries and the GCOS Director participated in the informal meeting, which developed a standard (more detailed) format for national reports on climate monitoring and served to improve international coordination on UNFCCC monitoring issues ahead of the formal establishment of an intergovernmental mechanism;
· reporting on the status of climate monitoring commitments as part of periodic national communications to the UNFCCC - the Bureau coordinated the preparation of those elements of Australia's third national communication relevant to monitoring and research and made substantial progress towards a first draft; and
· support for a series of regional implementation workshops to assist developing countries in improving climate monitoring systems - the first such workshop was held in Samoa in August, to address the needs of the Pacific region. The Bureau contributed substantially to the preparations for the workshop and its conduct, including through the drafting and presentation of a key discussion paper on the development of an action plan for the region.
Follow-up to the Evaluation of the Analysis and Prediction Program
A major evaluation of the Analysis and Prediction Program (which is delivered plays a major part in delivery of the Major Output of Meteorological and Related Data and Products) was completed in October 1999 as part of the Evaluation Program for the Environment and Heritage Portfolio. Its aims were to review the effectiveness of the program, compare its performance with comparable overseas programs, review the technical supporting infrastructure and assess its capacity to respond to emerging trends and user requirements. Overall, the Evaluation endorsed the major thrust of the program and, in particular, noted the widespread view that the quality of the output from the Analysis and Prediction Program had significantly improved during the previous five years.
Significant progress was made in line with the decisions of the Bureau Executive on the recommendations of the Evaluation. This included:
· establishment of a new focus for data management and quality control as a separate sub-section in the Central Operations and Systems Branch (COSB) to take an integrated and organisation wide approach to the technologies and procedures required for effective data management and quality control;
· testing of on-screen interactive editing of analysis charts using software (HORACE) purchased from the UK Meteorological Office;
· replacement of the hand drawn Australian Region +24 hour prognosis with on-screen editing of a numerical prognosis, including the addition of fronts and other features;
· transfer of responsibility for the operational implementation and monitoring of satellite meteorology applications, for input into numerical weather prediction systems, to NMOC; and
· implementation of a strategy to deliver model data to users in real time and with high spatial and temporal resolution. This required an upgrade to the real time data base, to complement model upgrades, and the testing of the Meteorological Archive and Retrieval System (MARS) developed at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
Follow-up to the Evaluation of the International Activities Program
A minor evaluation of the Bureau's International Activities Program commenced in June 2000 under the program evaluation plan for the Environment and Heritage Portfolio. The evaluation was guided by a steering committee chaired by Professor Bruce Morton, Emeritus Professor, Applied Mathematics, Monash University and including the Bureau's Assistant Director (Observations and Engineering), Assistant Director (Executive and International Affairs) and a member of the Program Evaluation and Audit Unit of the Department of the Environment and Heritage. The evaluation methodology included desk reviews, questionnaires and written submissions, and an independent view was provided by Mr Stan Cornford, former Head of the UK Meteorological Office's International Activities Branch. The Evaluation Report was completed in February and included a total of 13 recommendations. Preliminary responses were formulated and circulated to Branch Heads and Regional Directors on 11 May for coordination comment.
Among the changes agreed in the preliminary Bureau response were:
· minor revision to the objectives of the International Activities Program;
· continued liaison with developed countries for the purposes of inter-comparison, information exchange and technology transfer;
· reaffirmation of the policy governing SSU commercial activities outside Australia;
· maintenance of an international strategy;
· procedures for the preparation of Australian briefs when attending intergovernmental meetings;
· provision of training in negotiating skills and WMO procedures;
· exploration of high priority new initiative with DFAT/AusAID to assist with training of staff of NMHSs of developing countries in the Pacific region; and
· consideration of the establishment of a Tropical Desk within the Queensland Regional Office for on-the-job training of tropical cyclone forecasters.
Final Bureau responses to all recommendations will be available early in 2001-02.
Upgrade of the Data Management Function
A new organisational focus for data management was established within the Central Operations and Systems Branch. The Data Management and Quality Control Section consists of the Database Administration Sub-section, the Data Flow and Quality Control Sub-section and the Data Access and Archive Sub-section.
The role of the Data Management and Quality Control Section is to plan, manage and develop overarching information technology systems for the efficient collection, recognition, quality control, storage, archival and retrieval of meteorological, oceanographic and hydrological data in order to produce high quality data sets to support Bureau operational and research requirements and the growing needs of external clients. The first task of the Section is to coordinate a Bureau-wide strategic plan for data management, taking account of new technologies and the increasing emphasis of the Government On-line strategy.
Australian Integrated Forecast System and Forecast Process Streamlining
In early 2001, the Australian Integrated Forecast System (AIFS) Steering Committee formally recognised the completion of AIFS implementation and noted the need to take the next logical step, to focus on streamlining the forecast process, building on the AIFS infrastructure in order to enhance the quality of forecast outputs. That committee was then finalised and replaced with the FSEP (Forecast Streamlining and Enhancement Project) Steering Committee. Its terms of reference were to broadly consider service requirements, the consequent research and development needs, and the implications for systems development, training and implementation, including provision of high level guidance for an FSEP Coordination Group (FCG).
The FCG met regularly during 2000-01 and developed both an overall strategic plan and a work plan for the year. Several key developments were initiated, including the Forecast Database project, Forecast Process Analysis, Forecast Service Analysis and a Demonstration Workstation project, as well as the communication strategy, which involved the establishment of a intranet web site, and a successful FSEP Workshop 2001. Activities aimed at the Enhanced Use of NWP model guidance and the Review of User Interfaces will be further progressed in 2001-02.
A number of other related, but independent, projects also contributed to the overall FSEP strategy, including the Australian Marine Forecast System, the Tropical Cyclone Module, the AutoTAF project and the Thunderbox thunderstorm nowcasting system.
Public Access Systems
The Services Management System (SMS) made good progress this year, with a focus on those components intended to handle cost recovery and cost-of-access services. The ultimate objective of this project is to provide better management and reporting information on product usage (free and cost-recovered), service activity levels and client service access patterns, through a management information system. The SMS will also include subscription processing and quoting procedures. Potential users include all Bureau Regional and Head Office service outlets.
The Sales and Distribution (SD) module of SAP was selected for handling chargeable services, to ensure easier connection with the Bureau's new Financial Management System and to facilitate the meeting of audit requirements. Detailed planning of the SD module implementation was well advanced and consultative mechanisms were set up with all relevant areas, to allow discussion and resolution of issues in a cross-program and nationally consistent way. The SMS is expected to "go live" late in 2001-02.
Good progress was also made on improving recorded telephone access systems and services. In order to extend the use of the Bureau's text-to-speech system to its local-call (1300) and timed-call (1900) telephone weather services, significant changes in infrastructure were required on the part of both the Bureau and its external service provider. The Bureau selected a new service provider by public tender, and transition arrangements were well under way by the end of the year with cut-over to the new system planned for July or August 2001. With the use of text-to-speech technology, the new system is expected to reduce running costs and relieve workload in the Regional Offices, and, as a result, will enable the planned expansion of the range of local-call telephone warning services beyond the current tropical cyclone services.
Telstra, which has, thus far, continued to operate the (1196) local-call telephone weather service for capital cities, has indicated that options for the future of this service will be reviewed. Despite discussions between Telstra and the Bureau during the year, no conclusions were reached or firm options developed.
The public announcement and implementation of the Basic Product Set (BPS) from 1 August was aimed at clarifying the Bureau's current policies on access and charges for its products and data, as well as providing a number of highly significant new products, most notably the free real-time radar service provided on the Bureau's web site. Implementation of the BPS will continue, with further extensions to the radar service planned. The BPS will be regularly reviewed following full implementation.
Relationship with Private Sector Providers
The Bureau has a long-standing policy of support for the development of a professionally competent private sector in meteorology in Australia by:
· undertaking collaborative projects;
· employing members of the private meteorological sector to provide advice and undertake services; and
· providing the private sector with access to a large part of the Bureau database, either free of charge or at cost of access and subject to an access agreement.
During the year, collaborative projects continued with private sector entities such as The Weather Channel, Almos Australia, Environmental Systems & Services and Vaisala Australia.
The Bureau continued its consultation with the private sector, mainly through bilateral meetings and e-mail correspondence with individual firms, as well as via a mailing list of commercial meteorological service providers on which news of significant events, such as the announcement of the Basic Product Set, were promulgated. Four high-level bilateral meetings were held with individual providers during 2000-01. Significant issues that emerged from these processes included:
· the generally poor understanding of the concept of the Basic Product Set and how it is intended to operate;
· constantly increasing demands from commercial providers for real time access to additional types of data from the Bureau, with the nature of the demands differing significantly between providers;
· increasing demand for nationally consistent formats in Bureau products (forecasts and warnings, and data products) to facilitate automated processing of the information stream;
· the high expectations that commercial providers have for technical support, reliability and legal rigour of data access services; and
· the reluctance of the private sector to accept the conditions of access set out in the access regime approved by the ACCC, considering them to be too restrictive and onerous.
Progress in addressing these issues was slow but steady during the year. Lengthy discussions were held on legal issues, secondary provision policy, new products with national content and improved costing of data access services, and several initiatives are close to completion. These include a new National Precis forecast product, improvements to the operation of access agreements, secondary provision policy on radar, NWP output products and improvements to the Bureau's Charging Manual. Some of these issues are also being addressed through the development of the Services Management System.
Support for the Year 2000 Olympics
The Bureau provided a range of weather services in support of the 2000 Sydney Olympic and Paralympic Games, held in September and October, as well as forecasts for the Olympic and Paralympic Torch Relays. The Bureau received numerous tributes from the Sydney Organising Committee for the Olympic Games (SOCOG), team meteorologists, individual athletes and web clients on the quality of its services.
The services delivered during the Games were the culmination of seven years of planning, with the needs of competitors in the various different sports being considered as well as the public-interest services required to cater for large crowds of people gathered at the numerous venues in and around Sydney. The service included both an enhanced free service to the public and a specialised service to SOCOG, for which costs were recovered from SOCOG.
The main components of the Bureau's support included the operation and staffing of three specialised centres, one at the main sailing venue at Rushcutter's Bay, one at the SOCOG operations centre in Ultimo, and the third in the Bureau's New South Wales Regional Office that coordinated the flow of information, including that from the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) forecast demonstration project. These offices delivered a range of tailored forecast products, including high resolution forecasts of weather and air quality, and were supported by an enhanced observing network, featuring several automatic weather stations on the harbour and at selected other venues, and an enhanced communications system to ensure efficient and effective exchange of data and dissemination of forecasts.
The services provided enhanced the safety of both competing athletes and spectators, and allowed organisers to optimise sailing courses and reschedule rowing events to promote fair competition when windy conditions prevailed. Timely dissemination of forecasts, an extended range of products and ready access by users were facilitated through the establishment and operation of a special purpose web site.
Two meteorologists from the Hellenic Meteorological Service participated in the Bureau's Olympics forecasting team as part of their preparations for the 2004 Olympic Games to be held in Athens. The Bureau also hosted a meteorologist from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to assist with the preparation of the Chinese bid for the 2008 Games.
PHOTO He Lifu of the China Meteorological Administration analyses thunderstorm imagery on the Doppler radar with Andrew Treloar, Supervising Meteorologist of the Regional Forecasting Centre (RFC) in Sydney. He Lifu was attached to the RFC to assist with the preparation of the Chinese bid for the 2008 Games.
Marine Services Upgrade
Substantial progress was made on a number of elements of the marine services upgrade during 2000-01. In particular:
· a formal consultative process to improve liaison with marine users on requirements for and performance of Bureau marine services was established and initial consultations were held in most States;
· a draft Marine Observing Strategy Plan for 2001-05 was developed to support the provision of improved marine services;
· the first Australian Marine Forecasting System (AMFS) prototype was completed and evaluated and work on a second prototype progressed under the FSEP umbrella with completion expected late in 2001;
· TVNZ (Australia) Pty Ltd was contracted to provide HF radio broadcasting services to support the Bureau's new HF marine radio service (NMRS), commencing July 2002. Telstra and the Royal Australian Navy will no longer deliver this service;
· State/Territory and Commonwealth departments responsible for marine safety reached agreement on a new national VHF radio network to broadcast marine safety information. The Bureau intends to use the network to broadcast its coastal waters bulletins;
· the potential for increased centralisation of high seas forecasts was investigated in June and July 2000 and a longer trial is planned for 2001-02;
· usage of the Marine Page on the Bureau's web site continued to increase, reaching 19,000 hits per month in the warmer months, a 30 per cent increase over the previous year;
· a brief preamble, explaining the wind speed and wave height extremes associated with the average conditions routinely described in the Bureau's marine services, was included in marine forecasts and warnings for yachting events, including the 2000 Sydney-Hobart yacht race, following the release of the Coroner's Report into the 1998 race;
· a series of waterproof, pocket-sized guides to the marine services available from the Bureau was published with the yachting community in mind; and
· the Wind Waves Weather booklet for Tasmania was published and the Northern Territory edition was substantially completed.
Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting
The quality of life in Australian cities is affected by the state of the atmosphere. The Bureau continued to work closely with other Commonwealth and State agencies to support activities on monitoring and forecasting the air quality in urban regions.
The National Environmental Protection Measure (NEPM) for Ambient Air Quality was agreed by the National Environmental Protection Council in June 1998, with a requirement that jurisdictions should commence monitoring and assessment within three years. The Bureau has continued to support the NEPM process as jurisdictions work together to ensure national consistency in the implementation of the monitoring protocol. The Bureau is particularly involved with the Peer Review Committee (PRC), which provides advice to Council on the adequacy of monitoring plans. On advice from the PRC, the Council assessed the plans of all jurisdictions (including the Commonwealth) to be in compliance with the NEPM. The PRC plays a continuing role to ensure that initial inconsistencies in monitoring plans are resolved in a timely manner and that nationally consistent data are obtained and analysed from the process.
A collaborative project between the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, CSIRO and the Environment Protection Authorities for Victoria and New South Wales has led to the development of an air quality prediction system for Melbourne and Sydney. The system, which is based on the high-resolution modelling capability of the Bureau and utilises the facilities of the joint Bureau-CSIRO High Performance Computing and Communications Centre, was successfully tested over a four-month period covering the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games and over the following summer. The project was supported in part through the Natural Heritage Trust. There are plans to implement the prediction system operationally in Melbourne and Sydney and to extend the system to other major air-sheds.
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Services
During 2000-01, the successful SILO web site (www.bom.gov.au/silo) was upgraded, using further funding from the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program (CVAP), in an effort to better tailor information to users' locations and presentation preferences. `SILO2' aims to better integrate weather and climate information. A survey of users indicated general satisfaction with the site. Short-term information attracted the greatest interest and many considered the area in most need of improvement to be the `Seasonal Outlook Skill'. Updates to the web site will be completed during the second half of 2001.
Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, the National Climate Centre (NCC) investigated the frequency of extreme temperature events across Australia. The study showed that, in general terms, the frequency of extreme warm events across Australia has increased whereas the frequency of extreme cool events has decreased over the past 50 years. The NCC also contributed to international studies of temperature and rainfall extremes.
The NCC, in collaboration with CVAP, has examined how best to communicate the performance of the Seasonal Climate Outlooks for particular locations. The result was a web page that allows users to check the percentage of years in which the category (above or below normal) favoured by the probabilities in the outlook was subsequently observed. Users can also view a table showing all the past outlooks for a location and whether the outlook was consistent with what was subsequently observed. Users can then make a detailed analysis of the potential value of the Seasonal Outlook for their region.
The first full year of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature outlooks proceeded smoothly with the maximum temperature outlooks showing higher skill than those for minimum temperature. In some areas of eastern and southern Australia, the shift in probabilities was able to correctly foreshadow the observed maximum temperature departure 100 per cent of the time. One particularly successful outlook was issued in November for the summer, showing very high chances of above average maximum temperatures in the southeast. Subsequently, Victoria, South Australia and New South Wales had one of their hottest summers on record.
Management of the Climate Record
During 2000-01, the Climate Archive (CLIMARC) project continued to successfully address the backlog in computerising pre-1957 hourly and daily climate records and ended the year with 46 sites completed. The project is well on track to meet its objective of processing the data from 50 stations by June 2002.
In response to advice from the National Archives of Australia (NAA) and an embargo on transfer of material to archives, the Bureau commenced a reappraisal of its holdings in order to redefine those records having archival value. By the end of February, the Bureau had destroyed some 16,000 boxes of material, freeing about 3.4 km of shelf space at the Burwood (Victoria) NAA. To ensure the preservation of important records whilst accommodating the diminishing storage capacity of the NAA, autographic instrument charts and rainfall records from the Northern Territory, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory and rainfall records from Victoria were prepared, scanned and placed on Microfilm and compact disc. Mean sea level analysis charts from the Northern Territory, South Australia and Victoria were placed with a third party storage provider. The removal of Head Office and Regional holdings to date, for imaging, disposal or storage, represents about 31 per cent of total holdings.
Preservation of documents has been the key driver in the planning process to ensure future access to these documents and to minimise the loss of records through paper degradation and water damage. Images will be permanently archived on microfilm at the offices of NAA and digital copies will be placed on the Bureau's Mass Store, with retrieval made possible through the NCC intranet data extraction system, The Climate Zone. In the future, original records will be more readily accessible, which will be important both for validating records within the database and for direct input to data processing systems.
Reformulation of the Charging Manual
The Bureau's Charging Manual was significantly revised during the year in line with the recommendations of a number of recent inquiries (including the 1996 Slatyer I Review and the 1997 Slatyer II Study), Australia's obligations under various international Conventions, associated Regulations and Resolutions and taking into account the introduction of the New Tax System and the Government's accrual accounting framework. These have resulted in the development of four broad categories of charging for Bureau services namely:
· a Basic Product Set provided free through the mass media and the Internet;
· services provided at cost of access;
· incremental cost recovery (more specialised services developed for special user groups, such as aviation and defence, where the Bureau recovers the incremental cost of provision); and
· commercial services.
The revision of the Charging Manual included a reformulation of the basic charging principles for the provision of Bureau services and products in line with the charging categories defined above. A copy of the revised manual in draft form was provided to the Productivity Commission Inquiry into Cost Recovery Arrangements by Commonwealth Regulatory, Administrative and Information Agencies. The final version of the Charging Manual will await the government's decision on the final report of the Inquiry, with a view to incorporating any new relevant policy guidelines into the Bureau's charging framework.
Interrelation with the Environment and Antarctic Outcomes of the Portfolio
During 2000-01, the Bureau continued to contribute to a range of activities in support of the Environment and Antarctic Outcomes of the portfolio, in collaboration with other agencies and individual divisions of Environment Australia (EA). These activities included:
· working closely with the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) on climate science aspects of domestic climate change policy and the Australian scientific contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report;
· the provision of briefing material and scientific advice on other aspects of climate research and monitoring relevant to a number of international environment-related meetings including the ninth session of the Commission for Sustainable Development, and the twenty-first session of the Governing Council of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP);
· contribution to ongoing activities under Australia's Oceans Policy;
· provision of advice on issues pertaining to the Air-National Environment Protection Measure (NEPM) on air quality and stratospheric ozone;
· participation with CSIRO and relevant State Environment Protection Authorities in a demonstration project funded by the EA Air Pollution in Major Cities Program, which provided hourly forecasts of the spatial distribution of concentrations of a range of pollutants across the Melbourne and Sydney airsheds, during the latter half of 2000;
· coordination of departmental input to the Prime Minister's Science, Engineering and Innovation Council meetings and the Coordinating Committee on Science and Technology;
· provision of advice and data for State of the Environment reporting by the Commonwealth and various state agencies;
· close collaboration with the National Land and Water Resources Audit and, in June 2001, conduct of a two-day Australian Water Resources Assessment 2000 workshop for key stakeholders under the Water Availability theme;
· continuing contributions to environmental education in schools through participation in the Australian component of the Global Learning Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) project; and
· the Bureau, predominantly through its Tasmania and Antarctica Regional Office, played an active role in the planning and implementation of science programs at the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) and at the Cooperative Research Centre for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Environment (Antarctic CRC), in which both the Bureau and the AAD are partners. The Bureau's Regional Director for Tasmania and Antarctica served on the Antarctic Science Advisory Committee (ASAC) and was the ASAC Antarctic Atmospheric Sciences Program Leader. The Bureau supports the AAD through meteorological support, including observing and forecasting services, both during voyages to and from the Antarctic stations and islands and on station during summer and winter sojourns.
Upgrading Meteorological Services in the South Pacific
The Australia-sponsored project to analyse the needs of National Meteorological Services in the Pacific completed its report, Pacific Meteorological Services: Meeting the Challenges. The report was submitted to the 7th Regional Meteorological Service Directors (RMSD) Meeting of the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), held in Apia in August, where it was approved. Implementation of the recommendations of the report will be coordinated by the 8th RMSD meeting provisionally planned for December 2001. Preparations commenced for a World Weather Watch planning meeting for the Region, which will be hosted by Australia and chaired by a senior Bureau officer in Sydney in December 2001.
The Bureau contributed to the development of GCOS in the Pacific by participating in the Regional GCOS Workshop in Samoa in August 2000, and by providing some funding support for related GCOS activities. Cooperation with the South Pacific Sea-level and Climate Monitoring Project continued.
Implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) system
The Bureau implemented the GST within its systems and processes as required prior to 1 July 2000. Minor modifications were subsequently required to some systems to ensure that the funding module correctly accounted for the GST. Nevertheless, the Bureau met its Business Activity Statement obligations by the 21st of each calender month. The dedicated Project Team for implementation of the GST was disbanded on 31 July 2000 and responsibility for GST related activities, including the monthly Business Activity Statement, was passed to the Finance and Supply Section.
The Bureau of Meteorology's Australian Business Number (ABN) is 92 637 533 532 and the Bureau is registered for the GST. The GST is included in the Bureau's cost recovery and commercial services, and the Bureau's Basic Services are classified as GST free under the Appropriations Ruling.
The Bureau continued to examine different aspects of the application of the GST and develop appropriate procedures. With respect to in-kind arrangements, for example, the final procedure will depend on the yet to be released GST Ruling on bartering.
With respect to future accounting operations and reporting, the introduction on 1 July 2001 of the Bureau's new SAP Financial Management System will greatly reduce the current high level of manual processing of data for the production of the monthly Business Activity Statements.
Hydrology and Water Resources
The National Land and Water Resources Assessment (NLWRA) report for Theme 1: Surface and Groundwater - availability and quality, Australian Water Resources Assessment 2000 (AWRA2000), was released in March, together with that for Theme 2: Dryland Salinity. The Australian Natural Resource Atlas, an internet based system providing integrated access to the large amount of data and information collected for each of the 7 themes undertaken by the Audit, was released during June.
The Bureau was approached to fill the role of National Coordinator - National Custodian for Theme 1 and has given in principle agreement. As a national agency with well established links to the State and Territory water agencies and involvement with the ARMCANZ national coordination structure, the Bureau is well placed to fill such a role and to support Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries-Australia (AFFA) in its proposed role as Theme Sponsor.
A key objective of the Audit, and a recommendation of AWRA2000, was that the baseline information and the framework provided by the Audit should not be lost. These need to be built upon to provide ongoing assessment, reporting and data access as part of the process of moving towards sustainable water resource management.
The best model for the long term Audit arrangements and the institutional arrangements upon which they should be based was the source of considerable discussion during the year. Progress towards selecting and implementing an appropriate model was slower than expected. The ongoing arrangements were considered by the NLWRA Advisory Council and are expected to be further considered by the Standing Committee of the new Ministerial Council for Natural Resource Management.
In the expectation that arrangements for continuation of the Audit will be agreed, the Bureau collaborated with AFFA in hosting an AWRA2000 Technical Review workshop, from 12 to 13 June. The workshop was attended by 30 representatives from 15 stakeholder organisations ranging from State and Territory water agencies, Federal government departments, research organisations and a community advisory committee. The workshop reviewed the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in relation to surface and groundwater, within the context of AWRA2000, identified activities required to deliver an ongoing capacity to report on Australian water resources and discussed the institutional arrangements required. The workshop report will provide substantial material that will assist in planning the work program of the group ultimately charged with progressing the future of NLWRA Theme 1.
Output Pricing Review
Output Pricing Reviews (OPRs) are a component of the outcomes/outputs framework introduced by government through the 1999-2000 Budget and are intended to ensure that the price paid by government for the outputs of agencies is reasonable. The Bureau of Meteorology completed its OPR during 2000-01 as an independent review under Stage 2 of the review of the Department of the Environment and Heritage.
The objectives of the review were "to determine whether Bureau outputs are being delivered with optimum efficiency (for example relative to comparable outputs in other agencies or external providers) and to provide guidance for future output reporting practices in the Bureau". It was also agreed that the review would "consider issues of cost, quality and quantity of outputs and address any scope for achieving cost savings".
The review covered all Bureau outputs and drew on benchmarking and other comparative studies of cost relative to other National Meteorological Services, other public sector agencies and the private sector, both in Australia and overseas. Internal benchmarking was used to examine costs across the organisation and benchmarking diagnostics provided by the Department of Finance and Administration were used as a basis for comparing the costs of common government and infrastructure (management services) processes with those of other agencies.
The review found that the price of the Bureau's outputs was reasonable and no change was recommended to the Bureau's budget or forward estimates. The review further found, on the basis of the benchmarking and other comparative information, that the Bureau was one of the most efficient NMSs in the world, it operates a very efficient observing network by world standards, its research costs are at least as low as those of like agencies, service provision is low cost by international standards, and the costs of its international outputs are very low. Those processes assessed through the Department of Finance and Administration benchmarking diagnostics were also found to be efficient and, in some cases, at best practice.
Notwithstanding these generally positive findings, the review also noted that the Bureau had not been able to achieve some quality targets and that it would be difficult for the Bureau to achieve the performance targets set in the 1996 Review of the Operation of the Bureau of Meteorology at current prices. The OPR also concluded that "Since 1987-88, the Bureau's budget has been reduced by $30m per annum, and some $170m cumulatively, through a range of efficiency and savings measures, including the efficiency dividend. While the Bureau has delivered the required savings to date, there is no remaining scope to deliver such savings without seriously reducing the Bureau's capacity to achieve the Meteorology outcome."
In addition to the progress during the year on its specific Corporate Priorities, summarised above, the Bureau found itself having to address a number of difficult and complex policy, management and operational issues during 2000-01, which required significant corporate attention and follow-up. These included the following.
The New South Wales Coroner, Mr Abernethy, handed down his report in December on the causes of the tragic loss of life during the 1998 Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race. While the report, in general, was not highly critical of the Bureau, its first finding, that Bureau staff did not persist in their attempts to contact the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia (CYCA) and advise it of their concerns for the safety of the fleet, attracted considerable attention from the media. Of the 15 Recommendations made by the Coroner, only Recommendation 6 related to the Bureau. It concerned the terminology used in weather forecasts which are specifically provided for yacht racing fleets. The Bureau accepted Recommendation 6, given the Coroner's observation that many yacht crews did not appreciate how forecasts are to be interpreted despite the various Bureau publications distributed prior to the race. The Bureau moved swiftly to put in place operational arrangements consistent with the Coroner's Recommendation, which are aimed at improving the sailing community's understanding of Bureau forecasts and warnings. These improved arrangements were in place for the 2000 Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race and were considered to have worked well. While the Bureau considers that its forecast systems and staff provided an outstanding service in the circumstances, the lessons learnt from the experience of the 1998 Race have significantly influenced the Bureau's approach to the provision of forecast support for future yacht races and marine activities generally.
All evidence was heard in the Coronial Inquest into the cause of death of the firefighters killed in the 1998 Linton bushfire, but the Victorian Coroner has not yet handed down his report. The Bureau's forecasting performance came under close scrutiny through the Inquiry. The meteorological event of significance during the Linton fire was the passage of a front at around 9pm on 2 December 1998. The evidence presented demonstrated that the firefighters had sufficient up-to-date knowledge of the timing of the frontal passage and therefore that the accuracy of the Bureau's forecasts did not critically affect the decision processes of the fire fighting agencies.
As a result of the experience of the Linton bushfire, the Bureau extensively reviewed its operational fire weather service procedures and made a number of changes. These changes have been agreed with the relevant fire agencies and the Coroner was advised of them in submissions by the Bureau. Many of these were put in place for the 2000-01 summer. The Bureau is discussing with the agencies how to best convey meaningful information on the most likely time of arrival of wind change information. The Coroner has indicated in court that he believes that this is the best course of action rather than him handing down an inflexible recommendation for a new procedure.
In November, the Allen Consulting Group Pty Ltd and World Competitive Practices Pty Ltd (the Consultants) were commissioned to undertake an internally focussed strategic assessment of the Bureau. The methodology applied by the Consultants included:
· review of written documentation on the Bureau, including the Slatyer I and II reports, the report of the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) Performance Audit of `Weather Services in the Bureau of Meteorology' and various other planning documents and annual reports;
· interviews and discussions with Bureau staff in the Head Office and two Regional Offices (New South Wales and Western Australia);
· interviews and discussions with selected users of the Bureau's services, including representatives from the private sector; and
· a management systems focussed workshop involving Bureau staff.
The Consultants were also assisted in the task by advice from two international experts in meteorology, Dr James Rasmussen (former Director of the World Weather Watch Department of the WMO and former Director of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Environmental Research Laboratories) and Dr Gordon McBean (former Head of the Meteorological Service of Canada).
The final report of the Consultants was provided to the Parliamentary Secretary with responsibility for the Bureau, the Secretary of the Department of the Environment and Heritage and the Director of Meteorology in April.
The key recommendations of the report were that:
· a Bureau of Meteorology Advisory Board be established and that the Meteorology Act 1955 be amended to provide a statutory basis for the Board;
· the Advisory Board's role include oversight of the evolution of the Bureau's services and provide a channel for stakeholder complaints;
· the Bureau improve the flow of information about its services to its stakeholders;
· the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) assume the role now held by the Bureau as the Meteorological Authority, for purposes of Australia's commitment to the Chicago Convention, and that the Bureau's aviation weather service be provided under "purchaser - provider" style arrangements;
· the management of the observations and engineering programs be further centralised, and, to the extent that this yields savings, these be re-deployed to strengthen the Bureau's capability to deliver severe weather services to the Australian community;
· the Bureau adopt a more integrated and systematic approach to the design, implementation, evaluation and audit of the key administrative enabling processes, financial systems, and people management systems;
· the Bureau be established as an Executive Agency;
· in its planning for the expiry of the lease of its Head Office accommodation, the Bureau remain in the greater Melbourne area close to key stakeholders, and that its computer centre could be located in separate premises if so required; and
· the Bureau formally seek expressions of interest from universities, particularly those in the Melbourne area, for the development of partnered delivery of its key training and development requirements.
As at the 30 June, the Parliamentary Secretary had undertaken an initial assessment of the preliminary responses to the recommendations.
In August, the Productivity Commission commenced a public inquiry into cost recovery arrangements by Commonwealth Government regulatory, administrative and information agencies. The inquiry also incorporated a National Competition Policy review of fees charged under the Trade Practices Act 1974.
Among other things, the Commission was to report on the nature and extent of cost recovery arrangements, the factors underlying them, those who benefit from the goods and services to which the arrangements apply, the impacts on business and the agencies concerned, and the consistency of the arrangements with regulatory best practice. The Commission was also required to report on appropriate guidelines for applying cost recovery arrangements. In the Trade Practices Act component of the inquiry, the Commission was required to have particular regard to fees that restrict competition, whether the benefits to the community outweigh the costs, and whether the objectives of cost recovery arrangements can only be met by restricting competition.
The Bureau made a written submission to the Commission in November, outlining its approach to its cost recovery activities and providing details of the extent of cost recovery undertaken within the Bureau. Bureau officers subsequently appeared before the Commission at a public hearing in Canberra on 27 November. The Commission released its draft report on 12 April and the Bureau participated in a workshop in May to review the Draft Guidelines for Cost Recovery developed by the Commission. The Bureau subsequently prepared a second written submission addressing the Information Requests from the draft report and appeared before the Commission on Friday 15 June.
In its draft guidelines, the Productivity Commission proposed categories of service provision that align very closely with the basic, cost recovery and commercial service categories employed by the Bureau. Also, the draft methodology for determining the cost of both cost-recovered and commercial services, as proposed by the Productivity Commission, was similar to the Bureau's established charging policy.
The final report from the Productivity Commission was scheduled for submission to Government by mid August 2001, after which the Bureau should be in a better position to gauge the implications of its recommendations. In particular, the Bureau hopes to be able to use the Guidelines for Cost Recovery to ensure that there is a consistent and repeatable methodology for the determination of services and products to which cost recovery should apply and to the charges that are applied to these services and products.
In response to the requirements of government, the Bureau has initiated market testing processes in three major areas; information technology (IT), observations and engineering services, and corporate services. During 2000-01, benchmarking activities undertaken in support of the Output Pricing Review provided some additional specific information that will be useful as the various market testing processes proceed.
Following the Independent Review of the Government's Information Technology Outsourcing Initiative (Review) by Mr Richard Humphry AO, in December, the Government announced that Outsourcing of IT would continue under the direct management of Agency and Departmental heads. The Bureau established an IT Market Testing Steering Committee consisting of the Deputy Director (Research and Systems), Deputy Director (Services), Chief Information Officer (Environment Australia), Assistant Director (Services), Assistant Director (Management), Assistant Director (Observations and Engineering), Assistant Director (Executive and International affairs), Chief of BMRC and Assistant Director (Central Operations and Systems).
The Bureau commissioned an independent consultant to undertake an IT outsourcing strategic risk assessment. The main findings supported the Bureau's decision to classify its IT infrastructure along the lines of corporate and desktop office computing systems, mission critical operational systems and research and supercomputing systems. The report recommended that mission critical operational systems and research and supercomputing systems should be outside the scope of the Bureau's IT market testing.
Pilot projects were commenced in several Bureau areas (COSB, BMTC and the Tasmania/Antarctica and South Australia Regional Offices) to collect data on PC desktop systems for market testing of these IT services.
Market testing of the observations and engineering services functions is particularly sensitive given their fundamental role in the core monitoring and data collection functions that underpin all Bureau outputs. Accordingly, considerable care was taken during the early planning stages to ensure that the process took into account the unique and sensitive nature of these activities. A project office was established to progress the market testing of these critical functions. To assist the project officer, a panel of consultants with skills in key areas of market testing, such as risk assessment, strategic planning and specification development was established.
The first key stage of the project was completed, with the development of a draft project charter to guide the overall process. Features of the project charter included an extensive survey of stakeholders, a communications plan for keeping the stakeholders informed, consideration of probity and governance issues and a strategy for conducting the market testing process. It is envisaged that a scoping study and risk assessment will be undertaken during 2001-02 and, contingent on the outcomes, a market testing exercise will be initiated.
Activity during 2000-01 in relation to market testing of corporate services was largely linked to the work done for the Output Pricing Review (OPR). Amongst other things, the OPR examined closely the cost of corporate services delivered internally in support of the Bureau's outputs and the detailed analyses of current costs and performance, benchmarked against the Department of Finance and Administration diagnostics for common government and infrastructure (management services) processes, proved useful input to the Bureau's deliberations about the approach to market testing for corporate services.
Initial consideration was given to the various models for market testing of corporate services, influenced mainly by operational needs, the nature of core functions and the resources likely to be available to support a market testing program. It will be essential to develop a framework that will ensure an outcome appropriate to the nature and complexity of the corporate support functions in the Bureau (ie. support for a 24-hour-a-day operation, with staff carrying out a diverse range of activities, in geographically dispersed sites). However the significant effort required by corporate services staff in respect of the introduction of the Bureau's new Financial Management System, together with the follow on work in respect of the Certified Agreement, prohibited any major work on progressing a comprehensive project plan for testing of the Bureau's mainstream corporate support functions.
The Bureau's expenditure, receipts and average staff usage for 2000-01 are summarised relative to those of previous years in Figures 13 and 14. Figure 13 shows, in cash terms for comparison with the historical record, the Section 31 receipts (total $16.084m, including $3.106m for aviation weather services and $0.880m for defence weather services) and Meteorological Services Recoverable (total $15.691m, including $9.576m for aviation weather services and $1.702m for defence weather services). A more detailed breakdown of 2000-01 expenses and revenue in accrual terms is given in Table 2 compared with those for 1999-2000 and with the Budget (Appropriation Bill 1) and Budget plus Additional Estimates (Appropriation Bills 1 and 3, plus additional revenue from the sale of goods and services) appropriations for 2000-01. The resources associated with each of the Bureau's Major Outputs for 2000-01 are summarised in Table 3 and provided in more detail in the following chapters. It should be stressed that the more detailed breakdown provided by output in Tables 4, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13, and 14 do not represent audited accounts but are included to indicate the allocation of Bureau resources to outputs. Because of the highly integrated nature of Bureau operations, there is some subjectivity in the attribution of staff and resource usage across outputs and especially so in the accounting of those cross-cutting and corporate activities, which, for reasons of overall cost efficiency, are managed or coordinated centrally. An analysis of the Bureau's overall staff profile is given in Appendix 9 and an estimated breakdown of the cross-cutting and corporate overhead component of expenses and staff usage is given in Appendix 10.
Figure 13. Bureau of Meteorology expenditure from 1976-77 to 2000-01 ($million) in cash terms. Expenditure since 1986-87 include a number of items (totalling approximately $26 million in 2000-01) which were not met from Bureau appropriations in earlier years. The decrease in meteorological services recoverable from 1992-93 was a result of the reduction of the incremental resources directed to the provision of meteorological services to civil and defence aviation. The decrease has been offset since 1996-97 by increased revenue from income through Section 31 arrangements.
Figure 14. Appropriation funded Bureau staffing (Average Staffing Level (ASL) excluding Section 31 funded staff and corrected for changes of function prior to 1985) from 1976-77 to 2000-01. From 1987-88 to 1990-91, the decrease in ASL due to the efficiency dividend and other factors was partially offset by additional staff provided for re-equipment and upgrading of severe weather and flood warning services. These were integrated into ongoing operations from 1991-92.
Table 2. Bureau of Meteorology expenses, revenue and staff level for 2000-01 compared with those for 1999-2000 and the Budget (Appropriation Bill 1) and Budget plus Additional Estimates appropriations (Appropriation Bills 1 and 3) for 2000-01.
ACTUAL EXPENSES 1999-2000 |
BUDGET 2000-01 |
BUDGET & ADD. EST. 2000-01 |
ACTUAL EXPENSES & REVENUE 2000-01 | |
($'000) |
($'000) |
($'000) |
($'000) | |
FINANCIAL |
||||
EXPENSES |
||||
Employee Expenses (Appropriation) |
94,454 |
93,680 |
93,680 |
95,568 |
Employee Expenses (Section 31) |
4,343 |
4,278 |
4,278 |
3,988 |
Supply of Goods and Services (Appropriation) |
36,435 |
27,806 |
35,945 |
42,771 |
Supply of Goods and Services (Section 31) |
11,993 |
9,802 |
13,005 |
10,614 |
Operating Leases Rentals |
10,943 |
11,030 |
11,030 |
10,638 |
Depreciation |
31,484 |
36,240 |
36,239 |
30,806 |
Other Goods and Services Expenses |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(WMO Contribution) |
901 |
996 |
996 |
1,115 |
Capital Use Charge |
12,325 |
18,929 |
21,468 |
0* |
TOTAL PRICE OF OUTPUT |
202,878 |
202,761 |
216,641 |
195,500 |
REVENUE |
||||
Appropriation |
180,096 |
188,681 |
199,294 |
199,294 |
Sale of Goods and Services |
17,728 |
14,080 |
17,283 |
17,283 |
Miscellaneous - other |
66 |
0 |
64 |
64 |
TOTAL REVENUE |
197,890 |
202,761 |
216,641 |
216,641 |
STAFFING |
||||
Staff Years (actual) |
||||
- Funded from Employee Expenses (Appropriation) |
1,272.0 |
1,260.1 |
1,260.1 |
1,259.3 |
- Funded from Supplier Expenses (Appropriation) |
19.5 |
23.8 |
23.8 |
28.6 |
- Funded from Section 31 Receipts |
56.2 |
56.2 |
56.2 |
58.6 |
- Funded from Capitalised Salaries (Asset Replacement) |
66.0 |
80.0 |
80.0 |
80.0 |
TOTAL STAFFING |
1,413.7 |
1,420.0 |
1,420.0 |
1,426.4 |
* In 2000-01, Capital Use Charge was not accounted as an expense.
Table 3. Bureau of Meteorology expenses and revenue ($'000) and staff level for 2000-01 by Major Output and Output Group.
