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Cross-cutting research activities
OBJECTIVE
To advance the science of meteorology, develop an integrated, comprehensive description and scientific understanding of Australia's weather and climate, develop the application of meteorology in the national interest and improve the operations and services of the Bureau.
OUTPUT
Original publications on Australian and global meteorology, hydrology and oceanography in the peer-reviewed scientific literature along with reviews, project reports, conference presentations, and the general build-up of scientific expertise, reputation and influence in the international scientific community; together with published and unpublished contributions to the development and implementation of new and improved applications of meteorology and new operational meteorological and related systems and techniques; and effective Australian participation in international research programmes directed towards improved understanding of southern hemisphere and Australian meteorology and oceanography.
OUTCOME
Advancement of meteorological science and understanding of the mechanisms of Australian weather and climate.
Meteorological and Related Research includes both research undertaken in fulfilment of the Bureau's responsibilities as a national research agency to contribute to the advancement of meteorological science in Australia and research aimed at developing the application of meteorology to the needs of the Australian community. The main research activities reported in this chapter are carried out by the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) in collaboration with the operational areas of the Bureau. This is complemented by a program of supporting research and development undertaken in the Bureau's Regional Offices, its Head Office Branches and the BMRC including an annually reviewed program of high priority techniques development projects. Supporting research and development activities are reported as part of the chapter on Cross-cutting and Corporate Activities.
Meteorological research in Australia is carried out by the Bureau, the CSIRO, a number of university groups and, to a lesser extent, by other government departments and agencies and the private sector. In recent years, the Bureau and CSIRO, as the two major agencies engaged in atmospheric research, have worked closely to ensure that Bureau/CSIRO plans for atmospheric and related research are coordinated effectively and to identify joint research activities and areas of collaboration at the project level, particularly between the BMRC, CSIRO Atmospheric Research (CAR) and CSIRO Marine Research (CMR).
This collaboration occurs within the framework of a formally-agreed division of responsibility under which:
· the Bureau, as the National Meteorological Service for Australia, has primary responsibility for research in support of its own operations and services, including research directed to the broad delineation of the characteristics of Australian weather and climate, and for liaison with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in relation to relevant research in Australia; and
· CSIRO research focuses on the atmospheric environment and on the multidisciplinary interfaces which link climate variability and change to specific sector and industry-related impacts and responses.
To improve further the coordination of meteorological and related research in Australia and to provide support for the strengthening of programs in meteorology at Australian universities, the Bureau has actively participated in the development of multi-agency agreements to establish new research centres in meteorology and related disciplines under the Government's Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) program. During 2000-01, the Bureau participated in:
· the CRC for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Environment at the University of Tasmania with CSIRO Marine Research, the Australian Antarctic Division, the Australian Geological Survey Organisation and the University of Tasmania; and
· the CRC for Catchment Hydrology at Monash University with CSIRO Land and Water, the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (Victoria), Melbourne Water, Monash University, the Murray-Darling Basin Commission, the Rural Water Corporation (Victoria) and the University of Melbourne.
Bureau staff participate actively in the research and research training programs of a number of Australian universities. The Director of Meteorology serves as a Professorial Fellow in the School of Earth Sciences of the University of Melbourne and the Bureau provides partial funding for the Chair of Meteorology at Monash University. In May 2001, Professor David Karoly, former Director of the CRC for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, was appointed to this Chair in the University's Department of Mathematics and Statistics.
The scientific development activities of the BMRC include pure research, strategic research and applied research. Together, they fulfil the Bureau's statutory responsibility for the advancement of meteorological science and the development of the useful application of meteorology to community needs. They also provide the foundation for the research and development that supports the Bureau's operations and services through the development of advanced systems and techniques.
A focus of activities in BMRC during 2000-01 was the implementation of the recommendations of the August 1999 external expert review of the BMRC. The findings and recommendations of the review, which was chaired by Dr Richard Hallgren, former Director of the US National Weather Service and former Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society, were published in December 1999 along with the response of the Bureau Executive to the review. The Executive agreed with all of the recommendations, which largely endorsed the existing operating strategy of BMRC. The BMRC subsequently prepared a document that set out its detailed strategy for responding to the review and for setting the Centre's future direction.
A significant element of the BMRC strategy was a reorganisation of its research groups, which was undertaken in March 2000. The reorganisation maintained the overall functions of BMRC, but consolidated expertise on key functions such as data assimilation and modelling. The reorganisation also provided a focus in the BMRC for research and development supporting the Bureau's initiative to enhance and streamline the operational forecast process.
In response to the review recommendation relating to the priority recruitment of younger scientists to ensure the maintenance of key expertise, the BMRC attempted to recruit high-calibre scientists to key areas such as satellite meteorology, mesoscale data assimilation and climate research. Succession planning was further developed through enhanced participation in the CSIRO Leadership program.
Research in the BMRC is based around six thematic groups, as summarised in Table 6. The nature of research is such that each of the groups, and most of the projects undertaken within each, include a combination of strategic and applied research. A small component of the activity is aimed at pure research.
Table 6. The six BMRC research groups.
Research Group |
Objective |
Model Development |
To conduct research on atmospheric modelling to support weather and climate research and operations |
Data Assimilation |
To conduct research on advanced data assimilation systems for use in numerical models |
Model Evaluation |
To evaluate the performance of climate models, including studies of climate predictability |
Weather Forecasting |
To improve understanding of mesoscale processes, and to develop systems to enhance weather forecasting services |
Climate Forecasting |
To improve understanding of Australian climate, including the effects of climate change, and to develop systems to predict climate on scales beyond the medium range |
Ocean & Marine Forecasting |
To improve understanding of the Australian marine environment, and to develop systems, including coupled ocean-atmosphere models, to predict ocean variations on time scales from days to decades |
The resources committed to Meteorological and Related Research are summarised in Table 3 and shown in more detail in Table 7.
Table 7. Meteorological and Related Research expenses and revenue ($'000) and staff level for 2000-01 compared with actuals for 1999-2000 and with the 2000-01 Budget and Budget plus Additional Estimates appropriations.
ACTUAL EXPENSES 1999-2000 |
BUDGET 2000-01 |
BUDGET & ADD. EST. 2000-01 |
ACTUAL EXPENSES & REVENUE 2000-01 | |
($'000) |
($'000) |
($'000) |
($'000) | |
FINANCIAL |
||||
EXPENSES |
||||
Employee Expenses (Appropriation) |
5,788 |
5,730 |
5,736 |
5,777 |
Employee Expenses (Section 31) |
405 |
415 |
415 |
560 |
Supply of Goods and Services (Appropriation) |
1,210 |
953 |
1,234 |
1,201 |
Supply of Goods and Services (Section 31) |
1,746 |
1,378 |
1,829 |
1,873 |
Operating Leases Rentals |
593 |
589 |
589 |
701 |
Depreciation |
587 |
660 |
661 |
557 |
Other Goods and Services Expenses |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(WMO Contribution) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Capital Use Charge |
-108 |
-262 |
-297 |
0* |
TOTAL PRICE OF OUTPUT |
10,220 |
9,463 |
10,167 |
10,669 |
REVENUE |
||||
Appropriation |
7,768 |
7,670 |
7,920 |
7,920 |
Sale of Goods and Services |
2,167 |
1,793 |
2,244 |
2,244 |
Miscellaneous - other |
3 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
TOTAL REVENUE |
9,938 |
9,463 |
10,167 |
10,167 |
STAFFING |
||||
Staff Years (actual) |
||||
- Funded from Employee Expenses (Appropriation) |
72.8 |
69.7 |
69.7 |
72.4 |
- Funded from Supplier Expenses (Appropriation) |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
- Funded from Section 31 Receipts |
7.7 |
7.7 |
7.7 |
10.5 |
- Funded from Capitalised Salaries (Asset Replacement) |
0.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
TOTAL STAFFING |
80.8 |
79.6 |
79.6 |
85.7 |
* In 2000-01, Capital Use Charge was not accounted as an expense.
Performance during 2000-01 was assessed at two levels in terms of the:
quality, quantity and price of the outputs directed to the achievement of the planned outcome relative to agreed target levels; and
contribution of the outputs to the achievement of the planned outcome.
The measures used as a basis for performance assessment were as published in the Portfolio Budget Statements 2000-01 for the Environment and Heritage Portfolio (Budget Related Paper No. 1.7). The performance for 2000-01 against each of the performance measures and targets for quality, quantity and price of outputs is summarised in Appendix 11.
The main strategies used to achieve the planned outcome in 2000-01 were to:
· encourage high quality research in-house as a foundation for effective collaboration with the external research community and for the implementation of improved systems and techniques for the provision of services;
· foster meteorology in the tertiary education sector to ensure access to well-trained graduates and maintenance of the national research infrastructure for atmospheric science; and
· ensure effective collaboration with the research programs of the CSIRO and other relevant institutions both within Australia and overseas.
The contribution to achievement of the planned outcome during 2000-01, assessed in terms of the indicators listed in Appendix 12, is reviewed below for each of the individual outputs (Pure Research, Strategic Research and Applied Research), drawing on the performance information summarised in Appendix 11.
A component of BMRC activity continued to be directed to pure research, which is of broad scientific interest and advances the understanding of the natural world. For example, a collaborative project with Airborne Research Australia (ARA), a Major National Research Facility based at Flinders University, produced a detailed comparison between modelled and observed characteristics of the interaction between radiative transfer and clouds. Observations from two ARA aircraft provided data on longwave and shortwave radiation, as well as information on the water content of clouds. The observations were then compared with theoretical estimates of the fraction of radiation reflected (albedo) and absorbed (absorption) by the clouds allowing the selection of a theoretical model providing accurate estimates of both the reflection and absorption of radiation by clouds (Figure 27). The study will lead to more accurate estimates of radiative transfer in global weather and climate models.
Figure 27. Comparison between modelled and observed cloud absorption (left panel) and albedo (right panel), as a function of cloud liquid water path (g m-2). The solid curves represent the averaged results from research aircraft observations; the dotted curves denote the observation errors and the asterisks represent modelled results that are generally within the range of the observation errors.
A modification of the mathematical technique known as principal components analysis was used to study the predictability of year-to-year variations in global climate. A particular focus was on the impact on Australian climate of sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including the high latitudes. Strong connections were found between the SST patterns in the Pacific Ocean (the well-known El Niño phenomenon) and the major patterns in the tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean. This suggests that the SST patterns in these areas provide little additional information on the variability of Australian climate beyond that linked with El Niño.
Numerical models are fundamental to modern meteorology and oceanography. They provide the means to study specific processes (such as the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere), to simulate past and future climate regimes, to assimilate observed data to yield a consistent estimate of current weather and climate, and to predict future weather and climate on time scales of hours to decades ahead. Concentrated work continued in the BMRC on the development of a unified atmospheric model, which provides the foundation for modelling on scales from a few kilometres up to the global scale. A new version of the BMRC Atmospheric Model (BAM-3) is being finalised for applications including climate change studies, seasonal climate prediction, medium-range weather prediction, short-range weather prediction and local air quality prediction.
The effective use of satellite data in Bureau operations was enhanced through several research activities. In the Southern Hemisphere, where there are large expanses of ocean, satellite data are very important in determining the state of the atmosphere. A variational technique for assimilating spectrometer data from polar-orbiting satellites was implemented in the Bureau's operational global weather prediction system in July, leading to improved prediction accuracy. Further improvements in accuracy are expected from the assimilation of satellite-based scatterometer data into the numerical weather prediction models (Figure 28). These data provide estimates of the surface wind velocity over the ocean. The model representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is being improved to increase the impact of the assimilated data.
Figure 28. Contoured scatter plots of global analysis values against scatterometer observed wind speed (left) and direction (right) for one week in August, 2000. The top panels included the scatterometer data in the analysis, while the lower panels used the operational data set. The improvement in the analysis by the inclusion of scatterometer data is indicated by the narrowness of the contours in the top panels relative to those in the bottom panels.
Global climate models play an important role in enhancing the level of understanding of the climate system and the capability to estimate future climate conditions under an enhanced greenhouse effect. A substantial effort has been devoted in the BMRC, over several years, to the support of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), culminating in intergovernmental approval and acceptance of the report in January. The BMRC focus has been on the chapter on model evaluation, which summarises the reduction in uncertainties in climate models over the last decade. A BMRC scientist, Dr Bryant McAvaney, was the Coordinating Lead Author for that chapter. Associated with this work were continuing contributions to the international model intercomparison projects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). These projects provide benchmarks for the performance of climate models by careful comparison of model simulations with observations under controlled conditions. In the BMRC, a pilot project was completed on the assessment of model simulations of the sub-tropical jet-stream in the Australian region, leading to the development of a full diagnostics project under the WCRP Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.
Research over the last decade has confirmed that much of the uncertainty in projections of future climate is associated with the representation of clouds in climate models. Clouds and other features of the atmosphere, such as water vapour, induce feedback processes that can amplify the climate perturbation caused by a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide. In order to quantify and understand these feedbacks, a technique was developed in the BMRC that breaks down the complex processes into individual components. The technique was used to investigate the contributions of cloud components (such as the optical properties, the cloud amount and the ratio of ice to liquid water) to the total cloud feedback in the BMRC climate model. It was found that the total cloud feedback is the sum of several competing components, as illustrated by Figure 29, suggesting an explanation for the large differences in total feedback found among different climate models.
Figure 29. Cloud component feedbacks, shown for long wave (LW), short wave (SW) and their sum (NET). The RESIDUAL term is the difference between the TOTAL cloud feedback and the sum of the components.
Climate change projections extend for decades into the future and so are generated from models with relatively low spatial resolution. In the BMRC, a statistical downscaling technique has been developed to produce estimates of local climate features based on the large-scale output from climate models. The technique uses observed data to relate large-scale circulation patterns to local features, such as maximum and minimum temperature. Earlier work validated the technique and demonstrated its value in generating consistent results from different climate models. The research was extended during the year to include parameters that relate to agriculture (Figure 30).
Figure 30. Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of Growing Degree Day for York (Western Australia) in spring. The black line is the observation, while the light grey is the estimated range using the downscaling technique applied to a range of Global Climate Models. The dark grey area shows the estimated PDF using climate change scenarios from the same range of GCMs.
Over the last few decades, there has been a substantial decline in the rainfall in the south west of Western Australia, as illustrated in Figure 31 for Manjimup. Studies were carried out in the BMRC to document and explain these rainfall anomalies, using data over the last century from selected high-quality rainfall records. Through the application of a statistical model based on rainfall data before 1975, it was shown that the recent long runs of dry years are very unusual. Further analysis showed that the decline in rainfall is associated with a decrease in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events.
Figure 31. Time series of May to October rainfall totals for Manjimup, Western Australia, showing a significant decrease in rainfall from the middle of the twentieth century.
The oceans surrounding Australia have a significant influence on weather and climate. Research continued in the BMRC aimed at analysing and predicting the key features of the global oceans. In collaboration with CSIRO Marine Research, the BMRC operates the Joint Australian Facility for Ocean Observing Systems (JAFOOS) to enhance the monitoring of the oceans in the Australian region and to facilitate the transfer of marine research activities into the Bureau's operational systems. An important activity for JAFOOS was the development of the strategy for Australia's national contribution to the international Argo program in which about 3000 floats will provide frequent soundings of the global oceans from the surface to a depth of 2 km.
The Sydney Olympic Games provided a background for some significant collaborative activities in the BMRC. The air quality prediction system, developed in collaboration with CSIRO and the Environment Protection Authorities (EPA) of Victoria and NSW, was run successfully each day over Sydney and Melbourne through the period from August to November 2000. The system is based on the BMRC numerical prediction model run at a resolution of 5 km, and the model predictions were found to compare well with observations. The demonstration period was extended to cover the full summer season (Figure 32), and it is planned that the system will be implemented operationally during 2001-02.
Figure 32. A southerly buster moving up the New South Wales coast during the early morning of 6 December 2000 was captured by the LAPS05 forecast. The associated wind shift had reached Bellambie at this time. A small-scale disturbance propagated ahead of the wind shift, and its influence on the wind field can be seen in an area roughly bounded by Mangrove Mountain, Norah Head, North Head and Penrith. The ability to resolve such features has been achieved through the introduction of the high resolution (0.05 degree) LAPS domains.
In September, the operational transport and dispersion model, HYSPLIT, was upgraded and converted to run on the HPCCC supercomputer in time for the Olympics. As well as being used operationally to provide tactical information on the dispersion of smoke from bushfires, the model is used to support an international WMO program aimed at providing advice to countries in our region in the event of the release of long-lived pollutants (such as radioactive nuclides).
From September to November, an international forecast demonstration project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) was conducted in the New South Wales Regional Office of the Bureau. The project involved nowcasting (ie. very short range forecasting) systems from Canada, the UK and USA, as well as radar-based systems of the Bureau. Figure 33 demonstrates the use of Thunderstorm Toolbox, a nowcasting tool developed in the BMRC. The formal demonstration followed extensive development and trial activity over the preceding two years. A particular indicator of the success of the project was the positive assessment of the impact of the specialised products generated during the demonstration.
Figure 33. An example of thunderstorm tracking using the BMRC-developed Thunderstorm Toolbox, `ThunderBox'. A tornadic storm (the large, easternmost cell) and another weaker storm (the westernmost cell) passed through western Sydney on 3 Nov 2000. The filled parts of the tracks show storm movement over the past 40 minutes. The straight arrows and arcs show the forecast cell movement over the next 60 minutes.
Photo Meteorologists from Canada, UK, USA and Australia gathered in Sydney to take part in a Forecast Demonstration Project to assess the performance of state-of-the-art nowcasting systems from September to November.
Scientific publications
Allied with ongoing research and development directed to the support and improvement of operational systems, the improved understanding of meteorology and oceanography (including climate and climate change), BMRC staff produced some 121 research publications in 2000-01, including refereed journal papers, articles, book chapters, conference papers and miscellaneous reports. Forty-five peer-reviewed papers were published in books and international journals and six internally reviewed BMRC Research Reports were completed. Details of papers contributed to refereed scientific journals are given in Appendix 13, together with a list of recent BMRC reports.
Research staff were involved in the peer review of scientific investigations performed throughout the organisation, served as reviewers for work conducted elsewhere, both within Australia and overseas, and continued to oversee the publication of the Australian Meteorological Magazine, a highly regarded southern hemisphere journal of the atmospheric, oceanic and related sciences. This quarterly journal publishes original contributions in meteorology and closely allied fields that are submitted by scientists from around the world. In 2000-01, 16 separate significant papers were published in the Australian Meteorological Magazine, with twelve of them authored, at least in part, by Bureau scientists. Several BMRC scientists also served on the editorial boards of other international scientific journals.
The pre-print volume of the 2000 BMRC Modelling Workshop (Model Systematic Errors) consisted of 71 separate scientific papers, 60 of which were from overseas scientists. The Workshop was co-sponsored by NEC Australia and the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). An annual summary report of BMRC research was also published.
All reports were published in good time consistent with the need for thorough review and acceptance of only the highest scientific standards.
Collaboration
The BMRC continued to contribute strongly, both nationally and internationally, to maintaining high standards in meteorological and related sciences. As well as their direct contributions through published scientific research, BMRC scientists served on a range of national and international working groups and external advisory committees, concerned with both scientific and science policy issues. In 2000-01, BMRC scientists served on 86 such bodies, many of an ongoing nature, and 13 scientists were invited to give key presentations at international conferences and workshops. Of particular relevance are international working groups on numerical experimentation into large-scale weather and climate prediction, various international oceanographic bodies and the many aspects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP).
External collaboration continued to contribute to both the vitality and efficient conduct of BMRC research. Collaborations ranged from one-to-one collaboration by individuals in their particular areas of interest to major scientific undertakings such as the Japan-Australia Mesoscale Experiment and the World Weather Research Programme's Forecast Demonstration Project, which ran successfully during the Sydney 2000 Olympics. All such collaborations enable a two-way transfer of expertise and Knowledge and add significant value, at relatively low cost, to the Bureau's own research efforts.
During 2000-01, more than 25 scientists, from other Australian organisations and from overseas, visited the BMRC for extended periods of one week or more to consult and collaborate with Bureau colleagues.
Systems implementation
The BMRC contributed to improvements in the quality of operational guidance material through the successful implementation of more than ten significant systems changes. The changes covered many different aspects of the Bureau's operations from data handling and assimilation through to new or improved systems for the observation and forecasting of weather elements such as rainfall, thunderstorms, smoke and ultraviolet (UV) radiation.
An upgraded version of the long-range transport and dispersion model (HYSPLIT) became operational in September. This system, which, is available to Regional Offices, allows calculation of the likely trajectories of pollutants such as smoke from bushfires and volcanic ash clouds, using input data from the operational atmospheric models. Successful verification studies were carried out using volcanic eruptions at Ruapehu, New Zealand and a large bushfire on King Island.
A new ultraviolet radiation (UV) surface albedo climatology derived from satellite climatological data sets was implemented operationally in December. Also, a number of new UV products was made generally available, including a diurnal distribution of clear sky UV index for Australian capital cities, developed in response to a survey by the Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria.
A new data retrieval system (called 1-Dvar) within the Bureau's operational global weather prediction system became operational in July. This system incorporates satellite atmospheric soundings from both NOAA14 TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and NOAA15 Advanced TOVS. Parallel trials of this upgraded system relative to the earlier GASP system showed substantial positive impact on medium-range weather prediction.
Upgraded versions of the US TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting) system were delivered to operations to improve the reliability of automated storm tracking by the Bureau's weather radar network. A capability to re-navigate radar data to a user-specified location was developed and implemented operationally, enabling for instance, airport-centred radar displays from off-site but nearby radars.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) guidance packages for the prediction of cold season tornadoes and severe thunderstorms were made operational within the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC).
A system for validating model forecasts of quantitative precipitation (RAINVAL) was transferred to NMOC for operational use.
Upgraded objective weather forecasting guidance techniques (Model Output Forecasts, MOF) for weather elements such as maximum and minimum temperatures were implemented into operations in NMOC in both the Bureau's operational global weather prediction system (GASP) and the limited area (local) prediction system (LAPS). These are more accurate than previous versions and they have been made independent of changes to the models.
Refinements to the operational sea surface temperature (SST)-based seasonal forecast system were made and implemented in the National Climate Centre (NCC).
Several improvements were implemented in the operational wave model including a method of eliminating `streaking', caused by unrealistic wave propagation behind islands. Also, an improved bathymetric data set was constructed using a combination of existing data and high-resolution data from the Australian Geological Survey Organisation (AGSO) and incorporated into the model.
The assimilation of screen-level dewpoint observations into LAPS was implemented as part of the LAPS operational suite in October. These observations are important for the forecasting of fog, rainfall and severe weather.
During 2000-01, the Bureau continued its active involvement with the two Cooperative Research Centres (CRCs) in which it is a partner.
A major collaborative project being undertaken through the Antarctic CRC involves the adaptation of the Australian Limited Area Predictive System (LAPS) to a high latitude domain covering East Antarctica and the adjacent Southern Ocean. The primary objective of the research is to develop an operational numerical model to provide accurate and timely forecasts in support of Antarctic operations in the 12 to 48-hour time frame. The second aim of the research is to use the numerical model to investigate the dynamics of high latitude meteorological phenomena, such as katabatic wind flow and extreme storm events, that cannot be realistically investigated using existing models or traditional observational studies. Significant progress was achieved in 2000-01. Since December 2000, the LAPS model has been running routinely twice a day over the high latitude domain, with statistical verification of model performance. Two different initialisation schemes have been trialed in efforts to improve model output. The model formulation appears to capture the Antarctic flow patterns well and has given encouraging results on wind storm forecasts. However, the analysis schemes so far employed in LAPS are proving inadequate at times at high latitudes and an improved analysis scheme is required.
Twice daily output from the Antarctic LAPS model will be provided to the forecasters working in Antarctica, during the shipping and air transport operations of the 2001-02 summer, to assess the performance of LAPS in real time.
Activities at the CRC for Catchment Hydrology are described under Hydrological Services.
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