Meteorological and Related Research is delivered through four individual outputs that contribute to the achievement of the desired outcome. The developments in each of these outputs during 2004-05 and their contribution to the outcome are provided below.

WEATHER RESEARCH 

The largest of the research outputs, Weather Research spans three of the six BMRC research groups, and focuses on mesoscale meteorology research, observational system development, advanced data assimilation systems and enhancing the value of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve the forecast process. A major component of weather research is a continuing program of field studies aimed at ensuring the Bureau remains informed of advances in observing methods, such as radars, and at improved our understanding of atmospheric processes, such as precipitation, clouds and thunderstorms and the representation of these processes in atmospheric prediction models. Developments of improved atmospheric models and of advanced data assimilation systems are key underpinnings of this output.

Major developments 2004-05

• The Operational Consensus Forecast (OCF) system was implemented in March, providing forecasters with an objective tool to assist forecasting of key weather elements, including maximum, minimum and ground temperatures, rainfall amounts and associated probabilities and sunshine hours, for more than 600 sites throughout Australia. The OCF system statistically combines information from eight separate computer models from Australia and overseas to produce a consensus forecast of greater accuracy than that produced by any single model. The OCF system produces forecasts for up to seven days ahead and will underpin Bureau plans to extend the range of its official forecasts beyond the four days currently provided.
• Improvements in tropical weather prediction have been achieved with the implementation of a new operational model (TXLAPS) that operates at higher resolution than previous models and includes improved techniques for representing tropical weather systems. The Bureau's tropical cyclone track forecasting system (TCLAPS) performed very well, demonstrating accuracy levels that confirm its place as one of the best performing models internationally. New techniques were also implemented to integrate global and locally-received satellite data into the global (GASP) and regional (LAPS) models (Figure 14). These techniques have resulted in measurable improvements in the accuracy of the predictions from these models.
• Systems were developed to support the Automated Thunderstorm Alerting Service, a new automated graphical web-based service that gives airline operations managers up-todate information on the location and movement of thunderstorms that might threaten airport operations. The development and release of a new operational Volcanic Ash Warning Preparation System for aviation was also an important advance.
• Significant progress was achieved in the development of a number of critical systems in support of the Radar Network and Doppler Services Upgrade Project. Radar data visualisation and analysis software was upgraded, improved on-screen thunderstorm tracking software was implemented, and new techniques were developed to blend high quality radar data with ground-truth rain gauge data to produce accurate real-time assessments of rainfall intensity (Figure 15).
• Upgrades were completed to the unified BMRC Atmospheric Model, including improved representation of the physics of the land/atmosphere interface, incorporation of a new scheme to model very small scale (microphysical) atmospheric effects, and a complete overhaul of the computer code that generates surface fields.
• Significant contributions to fire danger and smoke plume research as part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre have resulted in the development of wind-change climatologies and associated forecast products. National rainfall and temperature analyses have been used to develop daily charts of fuel dryness and predicted fire danger which are being evaluated for accuracy by operational Bureau forecasters.
• The UV and Ozone Forecasting System has been upgraded to provide improved daily forecasts and continuous model validation is provided through collaboration with the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA) and the Cancer Council. Each spring, the development of the southern hemisphere ozone hole is monitored in the UV and Ozone Forecasting System to provide input to an Ozone Statement from the Bureau's Atmosphere Watch Section.
• The national atmospheric transport (smoke, aerosols, etc) advice service was further developed to assist fire and emergency agencies responsible for managing prescribed burns, wildfires and incidents involving hazardous materials.

Figure 14. Analysis of near-surface winds showing a strong cold front approaching southwestern Australia on 12 February. Satellite-derived winds assist in defining the strength and location of the wind change.

Figure 15. Image shows, on the right hand side, a radar image of several thunderstorm cells to the north of Brisbane. The circle with the label 1 indicates an automated cell tracking detection with the line to the cell's left the previous 30 minute track and the arcs to the right the expected 60 minute forecast track. Cells 21, 9, 13, 16 have similar output. On the left hand side of the image is a wealth of thunderstorm information and time series of the information for cell 1 (ID 1), for example severity ranking, maximum hail size, height of the cell etc. This information will help forecasters provide better severe weather warnings as part of the national radar upgrade project currently in progress.

Figure 16. Example of a high spatial and temporal resolution prediction of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) over New South Wales, showing the forecast rapid build up in extreme fire risk between the 12-hr (left) and 17-hr (night) forecasts for 1 December 2004. The spatially distributed prediction of the FFDI is achieved by combining the gridded current drought factor derived from rainfall and temperature observations with NWP fields (temperature, relative humidity and wind speed). This provides a 5km scale forest fire danger prediction at hourly intervals up to 48 hours ahead. The lightly shaded area indicates where FFDI is very high (> 25) and the darker colour area where FFDI is extreme (> 50). Currently a fire ban (extreme FFDI) is issued based on a point forecast and the high resolution forecast of FFDI will greatly assist in assessment of the area and timing of extreme fire danger.

Contribution towards outcome

• The Operational Consensus Forecast system gives the Bureau an ability to provide automatic daily forecasts for an increased number of specific locations in the Australian region, enhancing and streamlining the forecast service. The hourly guidance in support of public, aviation and fire-weather forecasts improves the operational efficiency in delivering these services.
• Improved understanding of wind-change and fuel drying processes have contributed to improved fire weather services through better knowledge of fire behaviour and fire danger (Figure 16).
• Contributions to the Radar Network and Doppler Services Upgrade Project result in the production of advanced data to assist local and international research, advance the understanding of atmospheric processes that determine Australian weather and underpin improvements to some of the Bureau's most important services, including severe thunderstorm and flash flooding warning services.
• The Automated Thunderstorm Alerting Service and the Volcanic Ash Warning Preparation System enhance the Bureau's service to the aviation industry and contribute to the safety and efficiency of airline operations.
• Numerical weather prediction models contribute to improved understanding of the atmosphere and the Bureau's capability to simulate and predict atmospheric behaviour, such as tropical cyclones. The leading-edge modelling research in BMRC ensures that Australia is able to draw effectively on overseas trends and advances, and that the Bureau has the capability to support its services at the level expected by the Australian community.
• Upgrades to the Bureau's UV and Ozone Forecasting System contribute to improved public well-being through increased awareness of natural hazards, in particular through the national promotion of the importance of sun protection (Figure 17).
• Advances in the study and prediction of dispersion of airborne materials such as volcanic ash and bushfire smoke have enhanced the quality and scope of Bureau services. Improvements in the capability to predict short-range transport is especially important for protecting rural communities from outbreaks of air-borne animal diseases.

Figure 17. An example of a summer clear sky UV forecast for Australia, showing that most of country has extreme (larger than 11) UV Index values, with higher values (up to 16 UV Index) towards the north of the country.

CLIMATE RESEARCH 

Climate research in the BMRC is aimed at improved understanding of Australian climate, including the effects of climate change, and the development of systems to predict climate. Climate models and observations are used to improve the understanding of climate predictability, variability and change. Evaluation and diagnostic studies aim to improve the performance of these climate models. Climate research constitutes a significant part of the Meteorological and Related Research output and enjoys strong support within the Australian Climate Change Science Program. There are strong links to the Bureau Climate Services Output at all levels and there is extensive collaboration with other national institutions and research agencies, and internationally.

Major developments 2004-05

• New insights were developed into the relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which contributes to short-term variation in weather in the tropics, and climate predictability. An improved version of the statistical system for predicting the MJO was implemented and studies of the MJO and its predictability in a coupled model were completed.
• A comprehensive study of the interannual variability and predictability of Australian and New Zealand climate using observations and climate models was completed. A study, using the BCM2 (BMRC Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean/Sea-ice General Circulation Model, version 2), showed that oceanic (thermohaline) variability underpins decadal predictability in Southern Hemisphere climate. The same model was used to assess the predictability of decadal changes in the impact of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Australia. Studies of the impact of the Southern Annular Mode, also known as the Antarctic Oscillation, on rainfall, winds and temperature, and its impact on the tropical Indian Ocean were completed.
• Climate impact studies are underway or were completed on a range of subjects, including the relationship between climate variability and Ross River virus, drought impacts on suicide, the impact of climate change on Australian birdlife, and the likely impact of climate change on bushfire weather. A project, funded by the Australian Greenhouse Office, to develop a phenological database to determine the impacts of climate change on Australian ecosystems was commenced. Two papers were published documenting changes in extremes in the Asia-Pacific region, based on multi-national workshops conducted by the BMRC and funded by the Asia Pacific Network (APN) for Global Change Research.
• Fresh insight was gained into the cause of rainfall deficiencies in southwest Western Australia with climate change emerging as a likely factor, through continued collaboration in the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative. A new climate and climate change project, the South-East Australia Climate Initiative, was negotiated (in partnership with CSIRO) with the Murray-Darling Basin Commission, the Australian Greenhouse Office, the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment, and Land and Water Australia (Figure 18). Important new understandings of the role of various feedbacks in amplifying warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect were developed.
• The development of high-quality climate data sets (evaporation, surface humidity, cloudiness) for climate change detection and attribution and impacts research, continued in association with the National Climate Centre. BMRC scientists are making extensive contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment, including the participation of two lead authors and a review editor for the Assessment.
• The BMRC coupled model was used to investigate the ocean/atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean and its role in climate variations in Australia and surrounding regions. The relationship between the El Nio and Australian rainfall was analysed using observations and the BMRC coupled model, in order to understand why some El Nio events lead to significant drought while others do not.
• A BMRC-China Meteorological Agency land-use study was implemented, including a study of variable soil and vegetation parameters.
• A joint CSIRO-Bureau initiative to build the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) was commenced and a blueprint for its development completed.

Contribution towards outcome

• The development of improved techniques for predicting influences such as the Madden Julian Oscillation on intra-seasonal climate variability enhances Bureau services and increases the ability of Australians to take tactical actions to reduce short-term climate impacts.
• Model intercomparisons and studies of feedbacks in models lead to improved climate models for climate variability and change research, also contributing to the BMRCs high standing and recognition, nationally and internationally, for the quality and extent of its climate modelling. Expanded model validation and implementation of new physics and increased resolution improve climate models for climate research and seasonal forecasting and so extend and enhance the quality of Bureau services.
• Investigation of the impacts of climate on social, economic, and ecological variables enhances Australias ability to cope with a variable and changing climate and enhances the quality and effectiveness of Bureau operations.
• Detection and attribution of the causes of climate changes such as the extended decline in southwest Australian rainfall contributes to the improved characterisation and understanding of climate and its impacts.
• The development of improved climate data sets and software for using these data sets contributes to improved understanding of climate and will enhance studies of the impact of climate change and variability, both in the Bureau and in other organisations.
• Documentation of the role of ocean/atmosphere interactions in Australian climate variations provides a basis for improved understanding of El Nio and other key influences on drought.
• Improvements in the understanding of soil and vegetation parameters are important for accurately modelling the earth-atmosphere system and provide important insights into the effects of climate on areas such agriculture and fire behaviour.
• The continued development of models such as ACCESS is vital to Australias continued contribution to global discussions of the causes and impacts of climate change, and to the development of robust systems for carbon accounting. Outputs from ACCESS will provide important information to assist policy makers with decisions pertaining to societal impacts of climate, climate change, and land and water use.

Figure 18. The Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) is Australias largest inland catchment. Frost is an important factor for many agricultural enterprises. The total occurrence of frost across the MDB has decreased over the second half of the twentieth century. The graph shows the clearly visible downward trend, but with large short-term increases associated with the El Niņo events of 1982, 1994 and 1997.

OCEAN RESEARCH 

Ocean research contributes to an improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability and the application of this knowledge in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems for seasonal prediction, as well as to understanding, modelling and predicting the ocean and marine environment around Australia. This research involves gathering and analysing ocean and marine data, the development of sea state and ocean models, the development and application of coupled models, and collaboration in national and international initiatives. The research is focussed in the Ocean and Marine Forecasting Group of the BMRC but benefits from contributions and support from CSIRO, the RAN and academia.

Major developments 2004-05

• The Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) system produced a forecast ensemble ranging from neutral to weak El Nio conditions for 2004-05, with the ensemble average fluctuating near the threshold for El Nio conditions. This agreed well with the observed outcome. These forecasts are used as a basis for the National Climate Centres El Nio outlook and there has also been strong interest in POAMA from international groups. Intra-seasonal forecasts from the POAMA system are also routinely provided to the US Climate Diagnostics Centre as part of an intra-seasonal forecast project.
• A feasibility study was carried out to investigate the potential benefit of incorporating sea surface temperature data directly into the POAMA system. Work has commenced to assemble the next version of POAMA including investigation of the best options for extending the data input system to include sea surface temperature data and evaluation of the new version of the atmospheric model component.
• A set of experiments using the POAMA coupled model was performed to study the processes that lead to El Nio development and to understand any physical limitations to El Nio prediction. An assessment of the differences in impact on Australia between the 2002 and 1997 El Nio events was completed. An analysis of the link between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Nio was also completed.
• A workshop was hosted by BMRC that led to the creation of the Australian Climate Ocean Model (AusCOM) project. AusCOM is being jointly developed by the BMRC, CSIRO and several other partners and will form the next generation ocean model for climate applications from seasonal prediction to climate change. A preliminary version was produced at BMRC.
• A global ocean forecast system with enhanced resolution around Australia was developed jointly with CSIRO and the RAN in a project called BLUElink. This system is being evaluated before operational implementation and will provide routine short-range forecasts of ocean currents and temperature. Part of the project included a reanalysis of data stretching back to 1992 to produce a consistent dataset of key oceanic variables (Figure 19).
• Significant progress was achieved in the development of techniques to combine high-resolution satellite observations with buoy observations of sea surface temperature in order to generate an accurate high-resolution sea surface temperature dataset for the Australian region. The accuracy of surface wind predictions from the Bureau's operational numerical models was assessed in detail, using data measured by the QuikSCAT satellite. Monthly error statistics were generated for the years 2003 and 2004, and systematic biases in the predictions were identified.
• The Bureau's operational wave model was upgraded, leading to improvements of almost 10 per cent in the accuracy of wave height predictions.

Contribution towards outcome

• Development of numerical models such as POAMA supports the Australian community and Bureau climate services through improvements in seasonal forecasting.
• Research on the predictability of intra-seasonal and seasonal climate variability is contributing to improved understanding of climate and its impacts in the Australian region.
• Collaborative projects such as AusCOM ensure that national ocean research activities are coordinated effectively and are targeted towards the requirements of the community for relevant climate information and applications.
• Collaborations with defence agencies, such as with the RAN on BLUElink, ensure that the BMRCs scientific developments enhance and extend Bureau services and support for the operational requirements of the Australian Defence Force.
• New types of data, collected from in situ and satellite-based instruments, as well as the output of complex computer models, contribute to improved accuracy in the Bureau's Oceanographic Services. For example, the assimilation of QuikSCAT satellite data is instrumental in evaluating and verifying marine wind forecast products.
• Improvements to the Bureau's operational wave models lead to more accurate marine weather services and enhanced safety and efficiency of shipping, small craft and maritime industries.

Figure 19. 50m depth-averaged temperature and currents based on model reanalysis. Each change in grey-scale represents 0.5 degrees. The left panel shows the long-term average for February with a broad, relatively cool surface layer in the Coral Sea and a steady eddy circulation off the Torres Strait that, on average, prevents the flux of very warm water from the Gulf of Carpentaria penetrating southward. In 2002, as depicted in the right hand panel, the Coral Sea surface layer was up to 1.5 degrees warmer and widespread coral bleaching occurred.

HYDROLOGY RESEARCH 

Hydrology research within the BMRC is undertaken in support of the Bureau's Hydrological Services output in particular and aims to improve and quantify the accuracy of estimates of mean areal rainfall over catchments, to improve and quantify the accuracy of precipitation forecasts generated by means of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or nowcasting techniques, and to improve the representation of land-surface processes within NWP models.

Major developments 2004-05

• The Bureau hosted the 6th International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar in Melbourne.
• Progress was made with the development of an objective short-term rainfall prediction system based on real-time radar observations blended with numerical weather rainfall prediction. Rainfields, the quantitative rainfall estimation system based on calibrated real-time radar and rain gauge data, was further developed in preparation for operational use scheduled for late 2005.
• Techniques to verify the accuracy of precipitation estimates and forecasts through comparison of estimates and forecasts against observations were further developed.
• Siting approval for an experimental polarimetric radar in Brisbane was granted and planning for the installation of the radar progressed.

Contribution towards outcome

• Hosting of international symposia and conferences contributes to the standing and international reputation of the BMRC and supports the Bureau's role in the international meteorological research community.
• The work on development of rainfall estimation systems assists in understanding the impacts of extreme events that can be hazardous to the community, such as flash floods and tropical cyclones, thereby contributing to the overall quality and effectiveness of Bureau services.
• Studies such as those focusing on the accuracy of precipitation forecasts from numerical models lead to improved representation and understanding of land-surface processes and the hydrological cycle.
• The polarimetric radar will improve the understanding of topographically-induced rain in the tropics and sub-tropics, which is particularly important for analysis and forecasting of rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones and severe thunderstorms.