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The Weather Services output is one of the Bureau's eight major outputs and contributes towards Output 1.3 - Meteorological and Related Services and Products. Outputs from this group typically include analysis and prediction products describing the state of the atmosphere, information on current and forecast weather conditions for states, districts, cities and towns for dissemination through the mass media and use by the community at large; public warnings of severe weather events; user-specific forecasts, warnings and information, tailored to meet the sectoral needs of the marine, agricultural, aviation and defence communities; and specialised weather information, forecast and warning services, provided on a cost-recovery basis, to meet the specific requirements of individual clients and user groups.

OUTPUT PERFORMANCE 2004-05 

QualityTargetActual
Percentage of users surveyed indicating that public weather forecasts and warnings are partly or completely accurate90%94%
Percentage of users surveyed indicating that public weather forecasts and warnings are becoming more accurate or are maintaining current levels of accuracy90%93%
Percentage of users surveyed indicating that they are satisfied or very satisfied with weather forecast, warning and information services90%89%
Percentage of users surveyed indicating that weather forecasts, warnings and information services are received in time for them to make their decisions90%87%
Percentage downtime for internet access services0.1%0.0%
Percentage of numerical guidance products delivered before the scheduled deadlines for dissemination95%99.4%
Percentage of users satisfied with the value of forecast guidance product components90%not available
Accuracy of centralised analysis and forecast guidance products as measured by statistical evaluation procedures:  
- gain in skill of model forecasts over persistence (points)3037
- error in 24-hour statistical guidance for maximum temperatures (°C)31.66
- error in 24-hour statistical guidance for minimum temperatures (°C)2.51.57
- 72, 120 and 168-hour Anomaly Correlations75%, 55%, 40%87%, 65%, 49%
- error in 24-hour sea state predictions (m)0.70.51
QuantityTargetActual
Number of public weather warnings issued15,000-19,976
Number of public weather forecasts and information bulletins issued400,000 - 450,00026 610
Number of accesses by telephone/facsimile for automated weather service delivery systems5-3,705,093
Number of accesses by the Internet for automated weather service delivery system1.5 - 2.0 billion5.2 billion
Number of Regional Forecasting Centres77
Number of AIFS (Australian Integrated Forecast System) equipped offices2828
Number of numerical guidance products issued by NMOC2,4002,125
Number of systems providing distinct guidance products1017
PriceTargetActual
Analysis and Predication Products$5.994m$7.802m
Disaster Mitigation Activities$4.965m$6.121m
Public Weather Services$13.630m$12.916m
Marine Weather Services$1.397m$1.856m
Aviation Weather Services$14.886m$15.447m
Defence Weather Services$3.324m$4.000m
Cost Recovery Services$3.912m$1.339m

Comments on output performance

The number of fire weather warnings issued was the highest in recent years, apart from the 2002-3 season, reflecting the dry conditions over much of Australia. Tragically, although there were relatively few major fires, the bushfire related death toll was the highest in recent years due to the loss of life in the fire on the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia, in January.

The number of numerical guidance products issued by the NMOC in 2004-05 was less than the target due to changes in the way this quantity is measured. A particular product issued for several different lead-times was previously counted as multiple products; it is now counted as a single product type. For example, a prognosis chart of mean sea-level pressure issued for lead times of +6, +12 and +24 hours is now counted as a single product type rather than as three separate product types. Consequently, although the achieved performance figure of 2125 suggests a decrease in the volume of numerical guidance issued by the NMOC, the volume of guidance products actually increased through the addition of new numerical models to the operational suite.

In terms of the accuracy of centralised analysis and forecast guidance products, the Bureau met or exceeded all performance targets.

User surveys continue to indicate the Bureau's weather services are held in high regard by the general public. Quality targets were exceeded in all categories except the level of satisfaction (89 per cent compared with the target of 90 per cent).

Access to weather services by telephone was below the target and this figure exhibits a continuing downward trend, being further reduced from the numbers achieved last year. This is attributable to the continued growing preference for the internet as a weather services delivery mechanism, with more than 5 billion hits recorded in 2004-05.



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