Chapter 3 Climate Applications and Services

Climate Applications > Agriculture and Natural Resource Management

There are many agencies, including both Commonwealth and State government departments, universities, the CSIRO and private sector organisations that use climate information to improve planning and decision-making in agriculture and natural resource management. A brief survey is given below.

Weekly estimates of Pasture Growth Rates (PGR, kg dry material/ha.day) have provided wool producers in the "Mediterranean" climatic region of southern Australia with a means to budget pasture feed reserves, produce wool to market specification and assist with land management practices. There is a pasture boom during spring in this region followed by little or no rain until the following late autumn. It is critical for farmers to have good estimates of farm (average size 1500 ha) pasture growth rates and biomass. Tensile strength and fineness of the fibre can be adversely affected if sheep intake is not controlled. Studies have shown that, because as little as 20 - 30 percent of pasture is utilised by grazing stock, any increase can result in improved farm profits. CSIRO Livestock Industries, in collaboration with the WA Department of Agriculture, have developed a PGR and a biomass model. The PGR model uses satellite information and forecast climatic surfaces to provide inputs into these models. The Bureau of Meteorology has provided weekly climatic data back to 1995 to enable historical PGR data sets to be derived for this region.

In conjunction with the National Program for Irrigation Research and Development (NPIRD), the Bureau of Meteorology in South Australia is working to establish a national standard for crop evapotranspiration field methodology. Other interested parties include the Bureau of Rural Sciences, CSIRO, Agriculture Victoria (within Victoria’s Department of Primary Industries), NSW Department of Land and Water Conservation, Tasmanian Department of Primary Industry, Water and Environment, QDNR&M, NSW Agriculture, Primary Industries and Resources South Australia, QDPI and the Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Catchment Hydrology. The aim is to develop a standard and well-documented methodology using data from meteorological stations and satellite-retrieved solar radiation data.

Across the States and Territories, there have been frequent applications of climate data to assess regions suitable for agriculture and agro-forestry. Examples include the use of minimum temperature data in Victoria to assess the suitability of climate for growing olives, and the use of climate data to demarcate grape growing regions in South Australia. Long term rainfall observations have underpinned studies in Western Australia and Victoria on the suitability of rainfall for blue gum plantations. Forestry South Australia uses rainfall isohyets in GIS models to determine site suitability and tree growth potential in the Lower Southeast and Mount Lofty Ranges in their State. Long-term climate data are seen as crucial in addressing emerging problems of tree water use and ground water recharge in areas where rapid expansion of plantations is currently occurring. A climate analysis system is being developed in the Western Australian Regional Office of the Bureau of Meteorology to identify regions in the State potentially suitable for new horticultural crops, or for extension of the range of existing crops. A combination of gridded mean climate data and individual station daily data are used to define regions in terms of temperature parameters, such as degree-days or heating/chilling hours.

The sugar cane industry involves an integrated value chain in which climate influences many factors, including: determining the amount of sugar produced by sugar cane; controlling the development and spread of fungal diseases insects, pests and weeds; influencing runoff and deep drainage, with possible environmental impact associated with nutrients and pesticides; and also affecting the harvesting, transport, milling, marketing and shipping of the product. Hence, the most appropriate climate information and forecasting system for tactical and strategic management in the sugar industry is very much dependent on what decision point and what industry sector is being targeted. The CRC for Sustainable Sugar Production is making extensive use of climate data in modelling research aimed at improving sugar cane management and production across regions with different climate patterns and soil types. The CSIRO is examining ways in which seasonal climate forecasting can improve sugar industry competitiveness.

‘Oceans to Farms’, a collaborative project between CSIRO Marine Research and CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, and funded partly by CVAP, has investigated connections between ocean temperatures and farm management. Using sea surface temperature measurements to estimate atmospheric changes up to six months ahead, researchers have established that there is a lagged statistical relationship between the ocean temperatures and plant growth, and that it is now possible to make seasonal predictions of future growth using satellite observations of sea-surface temperatures. Assessments of this forecasting approach for the northern Queensland grazing industry reveal that production increases of 16 per cent are possible, as well as a 12 per cent reduction in soil loss. These benefits exceed those obtained using a forecast based on the Southern Oscillation Index.

The QDNR led Aussie GRASS (Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation) project aims to supply climate and resource information to help assess and manage pastures. This collaborative effort between the States is focused on a pasture growth model incorporating regional soil types and vegetation, using information gathered by satellites and fieldwork. As well as revealing rates of pasture growth to land managers, this spatial modeling framework provides climatic and drought analyses and highlights the risk of resource deterioration associated with animal numbers and climate variability.

The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit (APSRU) has developed a software tool, ‘Whopper Cropper’, to predict the production risk faced by growers. The software was developed in response to demand from extension officers and combines seasonal climate forecasting with cropping systems modelling to help producers to choose the best management options. Farmers can investigate the impact of changing sowing date, plant population, nitrogen fertilizer rate and other variables.

The QCCA is helping farmers in the northern grain region make better decisions about what to plant and when to plant. Building on research using the SOI, this project has successfully embedded climate forecasting information into a crop simulation system. Researchers are able to identify situations and years where forecasts can be valuable and the cropping decisions where forecast skill is likely to increase profits. One finding is that the highest potential wheat yields are associated with a rapidly rising SOI. Also produced by the QCCA, the DroughtPlan CD is a compilation of software packages, workshops, case studies and reports to assist management of climate variability in pastoral areas of northern Australia. The CD was released in March 1999 and updated and re-released in December 2000. DroughtPlan allows comparisons of the costs of stock reduction and build-up options, forage budgeting, establishment of stock numbers, and assessments of carrying capacity. Similar support activities have been undertaken by NSW Agriculture, resulting in the publication of "Managing Drought" in 2002.

The QDPI (through APSRU/QCCA) has developed regional commodity forecasting systems for both wheat and sorghum yield predictions on a shire-by-shire basis through Australia. These systems combine the "SOI phase system" with shire-based stress index wheat models. The systems assess the likelihood of exceeding longterm median shire wheat and sorghum yields as well as likely yield deficits.

The QDPI and QDNR&M have developed an irrigation allocation forecast system that utilises the 'SOI phase' forecast model and an integrated water modelling system. A decision-support system known as FLOWCAST has now been developed, which will allow cotton irrigation users to better plan allocation and crop plantings for the seasons ahead.

The QCCA group has initiated joint work with Fisheries and Aquaculture in Queensland that provides the first steps in development of a fish-catch forecast assessment system. Further work is now underway to link climate forecast systems with aquaculture systems and models in north Queensland. The QCCA group has also initiated work which integrates climate forecast systems with horticultural models, especially in regards to lettuce crops and stone fruit industries in southeast Queensland.

The Western Australian Department of Agriculture has developed, and distributes, a range of climate-related computer programs in conjunction with historical climate records to derive seasonal rainfall probabilities, potential crop yield, frost risk, flowering times and planting opportunities for Western Australian pastoralists. The Department of Agriculture also provides access to a range of weather and climate information on its web site.

The Natural Heritage Trust is the largest environmental rescue effort ever undertaken by the Australian Commonwealth Government. The Trust focuses on five key environmental themes: land, vegetation, rivers, coasts and marine, and biodiversity. The programs of the Natural Heritage Trust include the Air Pollution in Major Cities Program, the National Land and Water Resources Audit, the National Landcare Program and many others. Climate data and information are an essential input to many of these programs.

A rapidly growing application of climate and weather information lies in the area of bushfire management and control. Such information is instrumental in increasing pre-season preparedness and guiding within season planning, particularly during severe drought episodes. A major initiative in 2002 was the announcement of the Bushfire Co-operative Research Centre whose goals are to develop "a comprehensive understanding of the behavior and dangers of bushfires, given local differences in vegetation, land management and weather". The research will be applied in both the biophysical context taking into consideration control of air quality, maintenance of biodiversity, prescribed burning, and the social context - including enhanced safety of people and buildings during bushfires.

The Bureau of Rural Sciences is studying water table change in the western slopes cropping areas of New South Wales. The aim of the project is to quantify the rate of water table change at the catchment level and to produce conceptual models for the flow of groundwater and the storage and flow of salt, and to define issues associated with scaling-up to catchment level point estimates established for different land uses. Rainfall and evaporation data are essential inputs to the project.

As demands on the world's natural resources increase, conservation of biodiversity has become an acute problem for many countries. Rapid assessment of biodiversity is essential for rational allocation of scarce land resources. The BioRap Toolbox, developed by the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies (CRES) of the Australian National University can identify priority areas for the conservation of biodiversity. The Toolbox depends principally on the topographically dependent climate interpolation procedures developed in the ANUSPLIN package, which has been used widely in Australia and overseas.