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CLIMATE SERVICES
The national requirement for high quality and timely climate data, information, analyses and predictions, has increased substantially over recent years as users have become more aware of the impact that such information can have on important decisions on weather and climate sensitive activities. Application areas range from structural design to agricultural risk management strategies through to formulation of government policy on drought strategy and the like. Wide interest in the climate change issue has focussed attention on the need to monitor climate systematically and to a high standard over the long term, in order both to improve our understanding of the complexities of the naturally varying climate system and to detect any trends over time due either to natural influences or human activities.
Climate services encompass the provision of climatic data, information and advice to the general public and a wide range of specialist users. Long-term climatic data, obtained from both basic and special observation networks and stored in the National Meteorological Data Bank, are published in the form of climate summaries and atlases, and made available in both hard copy and computer-compatible form for use in research, design and applications to all walks of life. Climate services also include the month-to-month and year-to-year monitoring of major climatic fluctuations such as drought and flood rains and, to the extent possible, the prediction of climatic anomalies likely to affect agriculture and other sectors of the economy.
The Bureau of Meteorology's Climate Services are coordinated by the National Climate Centre (NCC) located in the Bureau's Head Office and provided through the NCC and through Regional Offices and Field Meteorological Offices around Australia. They comprise three individual outputs:
· Archived Data;
· Climate Data Service; and
· Climate Monitoring Service.
Benefits to the community in the form of enhanced climate services continued to accrue this year from the Climate Upgrade Initiative which was funded originally through the 1995-96 Budget, then subsequently in response to the recommendations of the 1996 Slatyer Report on the Review of the Operation of the Bureau of Meteorology and most recently through the 1999-2000 Budget initiative on Providing World Class Weather Forecasting.
Top of PageThe resources committed to Climate Services in 1999-2000 are summarised in Table 3 and are given in more detail in Table 16.
Table 16. Climate Services expenses and revenue ($'000) and staff level for 1999-2000 compared with reconstructed estimates for 1998-99 and the 1999-2000 Budget and Budget plus Additional Estimates appropriations.
ESTIMATED |
BUDGET2 |
BUDGET & |
ACTUAL | |
ACTUAL |
ADD. EST. |
|||
1998-99 |
1999-2000 |
1999-2000 |
1999-2000 | |
($'000) |
($'000) |
($'000) |
($'000) | |
FINANCIAL |
||||
EXPENSES |
||||
Employee Expenses (Appropriation) |
7,249 |
7,285 |
7,158 |
7,419 |
Employee Expenses (Section 31) |
139 |
140 |
286 |
286 |
Supply of Goods and Services (Appropriation) |
625 |
733 |
776 |
896 |
Supply of Goods and Services (Section 31) |
236 |
241 |
603 |
447 |
Operating Lease Rentals |
1,165 |
1,087 |
1,096 |
1,026 |
Depreciation |
623 |
481 |
484 |
528 |
Other Goods and Services Expenses
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Capital Use Charge |
12 |
-42 |
-39 |
-32 |
TOTAL PRICE OF OUTPUT |
10,049 |
9,925 |
10,363 |
10,570 |
REVENUE |
||||
Appropriations |
9,674 |
9,544 |
9,471 |
9,471 |
Sale of Goods and Services |
375 |
381 |
889 |
889 |
Miscellaneous - other |
0 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
TOTAL REVENUE |
10,049 |
9,925 |
10,363 |
10,363 |
STAFFING |
||||
Staff Years (actual) |
||||
- Funded from Employee Expenses (Appropriation) |
114.6 |
120.3 |
120.3 |
118.3 |
- Funded from Supplier Expenses (Appropriation) |
3.0 |
2.9 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
- Funded from Section 31 Receipts |
2.2 |
2.1 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
- Funded from Capitalised Salaries
|
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
TOTAL |
119.8 |
125.6 |
129.2 |
127.2 |
Performance during 1999-2000 was assessed at two levels in terms of the:
· contribution to the achievement of the planned outcome; and
· quality, quantity and price of the outputs directed to the achievement of the planned outcome relative to agreed target levels.
The measures used are as published in the Portfolio Budget Statements 1999-2000 for the Environment and Heritage Portfolio (Budget Related Paper No 1.7).
Performance indicators relating to the achievement of the planned outcome for 1999-2000 are given in Table 17.
Table 17. Indicators of achievement of the planned outcome: Enhanced community safety and well-being through the effective use of climate and related services by the general public and other major social and economic sectors.
The extent to which:
- government and community planning; and
· user needs are identified and satisfied and new services and products are developed as required;
- types of parameters included;
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The major strategies used to enhance the Bureau's climate services and contribute to the achievement of the planned outcome during 1999-2000 were:
· to further increase the efficiency of data management through automation of data collection and pilot testing of components of an integrated quality monitoring system;
· to improve the efficiency of data ingest to the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM);
· to improve the relevance of climate information through liaison with user groups and the conduct of user surveys, and to enhance the effectiveness of climate services through promotion of their use;
· to ensure the range of climate monitoring and prediction products available through the World Wide Web and media outlets keeps pace with community need, including improvements to the seasonal climate outlook service; and
· to protect the integrity of the climate record using a two-fold approach: firstly, by preserving data records and historical climate-related manuscripts that have not been digitised, in the face of space constraints recently imposed on the National Archives of Australia; and secondly, by digitising historical records in a joint project with interested agencies.
A summary of the 1999-2000 performance targets and results for Climate Services in terms of output quality, quantity and price is given in Table 18. The performance measures are aggregate measures across the three Climate Services outputs. Detailed discussion of performance against these measures follows under the separate output headings.
Table 18. Summary of 1999-2000 performance in terms of the quality, quantity and price of Climate Services
PERFORMANCE MEASURE |
TARGETa |
ACTUAL | |
QUALITY |
Percentage of data service requests requiring re-working, as an indication of user satisfaction with climate data, information, monitoring, prediction and advisory services |
=5% |
1.4% |
Percentage of regular archive entries into the national climate data base successfully completed within preset quality control standards |
95% |
98.4% | |
QUANTITY |
Number of climate data, information, monitoring, prediction and advisory services provided |
250,000 |
290,369 |
Telephone, facsimile and the Internet accesses to automated climate service delivery systems |
550,000 |
973,370 | |
PRICE |
Cost of maintenance of Archived Data |
$2.781m |
$3.477mb |
Costs of provision of Climate Data Service |
$2.918m |
$4.288m | |
Costs of provision of Climate Monitoring Service |
$3.373m |
$2.805m | |
Australian meteorological and related data are collected, monitored, quality controlled and stored in an appropriate and secure form, to meet the essential present and future national and international needs for climate data. The national climate archive is of central importance to the operations of the Bureau and provides the foundation for many of its research and service functions. Responsibility for the management of the national climate archive is shared between the two sub-sections of the National Climate Centre: Data Management and Computing Support, which provide meteorological and technical expertise, respectively. The Bureau's Observations section and its regional Climate and Consultative Service sections provide support on data quality issues.
Most of the climate data are managed through an Oracle relational database known as the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). Relational databases have the advantage of improved data security and effective backup and recovery support over other database technologies. While priority is given to managing the data necessary to satisfy the Basic Climate Service, systems are in the process of being developed to manage the growing volume of data becoming available from ancillary observation systems. As a result, the database will be able to serve a wider range of users and provide inputs for new climate products and services.
The Australian Data Archive for Meteorology currently holds:
· daily and hourly surface climate data (e.g. temperature, rainfall totals, rainfall intensity, wind speed and direction, pressure, various visual observations);
· monthly statistics for surface climate;
· upper air data (e.g. temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, height of various pressure levels);
· ship and buoy observations; and
· international climate data.
Some other meteorological data, such as tropical cyclone data, satellite data, radiation measurements and high frequency observations from automatic weather stations, are held in other formats or by Regional Offices.
Enhancing the data archive
Several database enhancements were initiated or continued during 1999-2000.
The Climate Archives project, CLIMARC, is aimed at ensuring that pre-1957 hourly and daily climate observations are digitised and entered into ADAM. Although monthly means and other statistics are held in digital form, many pre-1957 data are currently only available in manuscript form. External contributors to the project included state agricultural agencies, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Australia and Australia's rural R&D Corporations under the Climate Variability in Agriculture R&D Program. The National Climate Centre, in collaboration with the Queensland Department of Primary Industries, manages the project and the work is done within the NCC. Following development of the appropriate computer systems, the NCC began processing the historical records in early 1999 with the goal of digitising all records for 50 stations throughout Australia by June 2002. As of June 2000, 14 stations were completed.
A system for archiving aerodrome weather reports was progressed this year. These reports provide more frequent observations than those currently archived in ADAM. Work also commenced on including daily rainfall totals from several hundred hydrological flood warning stations into ADAM to satisfy the growing demand for hydrological records.
In response to a request from the World Meteorological Organization, the National Climate Centre also began developing systems for the automated production of marine climatological summaries for the international community.
The CLIMARC project - A National Climate Centre staff member entering historical climate observations into the climate database, ADAM.
Data quality
Responsibilities for the quality control of meteorological observations are shared between a number of areas in the Bureau and cross-Branch collaboration is essential for improving the quality of the data archive. Through collaboration between the National Climate Centre and the Observations and Engineering Branch, progress was made in 1999-2000 on developing improved monitoring of incoming data and improved quality control software for automatic weather stations (AWSs), electronic field books (EFBs) and the Metconsole, a software tool for generating and interpreting meteorological messages transmitted in standard code formats. Improvements in the quality of metadata also continued, particularly through the addition of complete station histories to the metadata database SitesDb.
The NCC improved its own quality control software in 1999-2000 in terms of both the number of independent quality checks and the number of stations that could be checked. Working with software engineering students from The University of Melbourne, the NCC and the Observations and Engineering Branch completed a pilot Quality Monitoring System (QMS) project in November. Development of the system has continued and an operational system is expected to be implemented in 2001. The QMS has the dual objective of improving observation systems and practices as well as the quality of the observations, and is consistent with the concepts of continuous improvement and performance monitoring.
Over 98 per cent of regular archive entries into the national climate database were successfully completed within preset quality control standards this year, exceeding the target of 95 per cent. The regular archive entries refer to climate records at intervals of one to three hours and a time series from 1988-89 is shown in Figure 40. The low level of performance in 1998-99 was due to the then absence of an automated quality control system for data provided through the new electronic field books provided to observers. These data will be put through the new quality control system off line to preserve the integrity of the climate archive.
Figure 40. The percentage of regular (real-time) archive entries into the national climate database successfully completed within preset quality control standards.
The system implemented to monitor the quality of daily rainfall totals (RainQC) was further enhanced this year with the development of a method for automatic detection and correction of suspect observations. Operational implementation is expected in early 2000-2001 and should significantly increase the efficiency and accuracy of rainfall quality control procedures.
The quality of the tropical cyclone database was enhanced during 1999-2000 through the removal of duplicate reports, the correction of invalid positions, and the correct determination of the timing and location of coastal crossings by comparison of the recorded coordinates against the location of the coastline.
Data management
During the past few years, improvements in data management efficiency have been due primarily to advances in the observations program and in particular to the deployment of electronic field books and automatic weather stations. In 1999-2000, efficiency gains were made through the introduction to routine data management procedures of innovative techniques for data entry and checking, which were originally developed to address the particular problems of the CLIMARC project.
A new approach to the digitising of pluviograph charts and the quality control of the rainfall mass curve was advanced to near completion during 1999-2000. The approach, which makes use of flat-screen scanning technology, is cheaper and more accurate than the old manual system.
Part of the data management function relates to the management of the historical paper archives (letters, manuscripts and charts) held by the National Archives of Australia (NAA) in offices around the country. Due to financial pressures on the NAA, the Bureau of Meteorology and other organisations with large volumes of records, have been forced to reduce their holdings and manage them differently. The Bureau conducted two reviews of its holdings in NAA offices in 1999-2000 and identified non-essential records and material that could be captured electronically. Close to 25 per cent of the volume of the Bureau's holdingswas removed in 1999-2000 and further removals were considered. The feasibility of establishing electronic image archives to provide effective preservation of these important scientific records and help ensure that they are more easily accessible to Bureau staff and the wider community was also tested. A project was also commissioned to investigate the feasibility of digitising records of meteorological observations from locations throughout Papua New Guinea and the South Pacific which are currently stored in the NAA. Records with high heritage value were found, some of which would be particularly useful for research.
International cooperation
CLIMAT is the encoded report of monthly means, totals and extremes from a surface land station, transmitted on the WMO Global Telecommunications System (GTS) for exchange between National Meteorological Services. In 1999-2000, as a result of efforts over the previous two years to automate the reporting of CLIMAT messages, Australia expanded its network of stations disseminating CLIMAT messages to 82, up by 32 on last year. The increase satisfies the requirements of the WMO and the Global Climate Observing System. The timely global exchange of high quality and reliable climatological data serves many scientific and commercial purposes around the world.
During 1999-2000, the Bureau of Meteorology was invited by WMO to participate in a task group to propose a plan of action to meet the needs of a variety of its Member countries for improving their management of climate data. Australia and 15 other WMO Member countries offered to share their Climate Database Management Systems (CDMS) and agreed to test and identify to what degree their systems would meet the key minimum functional performance requirements of recipient countries. In time, it is expected that WMO will prepare and facilitate installation projects in recipient countries in collaboration with donors and developers.
Attendance of Bureau officers at the Scientific and Technical Workshop of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel in Wellington, New Zealand and the Second International Conference on Experiences with Automatic Weather Stations in Vienna, Austria, enabled new information to be gathered on international practice in these fields.
Top of PageThe Climate Data Service involves the supply of climate data and information to the public and special users to meet a wide range of needs. Standard summaries and analyses of climate data and extracts of records from the computer archive are the main products provided to assist in this function. Another important function of the Climate Data Service is the provision of advice about the data, including observing standards, the instrumentation used, the completeness of the data record and the best data to use for a particular purpose.
Operational services and products
Regional Offices in each State and some Field Meteorological Offices continued to meet most of the routine requests for climate data this year. This approach, together with access to a Regional Library in each Regional Office, ensured that comprehensive local expertise was available to the data users. Large and complex data requests and advice on technical matters relating to the extraction of data from the archive were handled through the central Data Service in Head Office. User surveys indicate that this is a useful working arrangement.
During 1999-2000, improved user access to climate data was facilitated through an expanded range of "packaged products" which clients found easy to use and which improved the efficiency of the service. Consolidation of standard climate data sets on CD-ROM, standard map analyses, the automation of routine jobs, the use of email for the communication and supply of data to clients and the continued development of "The Climate Zone" also improved data access and reduced the time required to service requests. The percentage of data service requests that required reworking, a measure which relates to the percentage of occasions when further work is required, beyond the Bureau's initial response, to ensure that a client's request is fully satisfied, was only 1.4 per cent this year, well below the target level of 5 per cent.
Data Services staff in the South Australian Regional Office continued to streamline their production of climate data products through better use of computing tools and chart plottingsoftware as well as through establishing templates for the Monthly Weather Review. The Western Australian Regional Office sought efficiencies by making more information accessible to staff using the Bureau Intranet. New needs in regions of growth in Western Australia were met by various strategic climate projects including a Goldfields-Eucla Climatic Survey, and CD-ROMs of the Climate of Western Australia and of Western Australian Daily Rainfall.
Tasmanian Regional Office staff were kept busy providing information about the six-month-long drought which followed three years of below average rainfall. Questions about how unusual it has been were common. Figure 41 shows a moving average of monthly rainfall at Oatlands, Tasmania. Each point on the graph represents the monthly rainfall averaged over the previous 120 months (or 10 years). By averaging over a long period, month-to-month and even year-to-year variations are eliminated, and long-term patterns emerge. The fluctuations seem relatively small, a few millimetres per month, but the long-term variation is quite significant. Comparison of the period up to 1980 with the period after 1990, reveals a drop of about 9 mm per month, which corresponds to more than 100 mm per year.
Figure 41. Moving average monthly rainfall at Oatlands, Tasmania from 1908 to the present, showing the recent period of below average rainfall culminating in drought conditions during 1999-2000. Each point on the graph represents the monthly rainfall averaged over the previous 120 months (or 10 years). By averaging over a long period, month-to-month and even year-to-year variations are eliminated, and long-term patterns emerge.
Publications
During 1999-2000,contributions were prepared for publications of the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Geographic and Wonders of the Weather, as well as a number of Bureau of Meteorology publications. A special publication, Climate of Sydney: The Olympic City was made available to the Sydney Organising Committee for the Olympic Games (SOCOG), to Olympic sporting managers, overseas countries and schools. New data and information services to local communities were made available through selected Field MeteorologicalOffices as a result of improvements to their on-site computing systems.
A special publication of maps and textual information on the climate of Sydney was put together for the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games.
Top of PageRoutine global grid-point analyses that are performed daily by the National Meteorological Operations Centre (NMOC) in support of weather forecasting provide the basic data for the NCC to calculate monthly means and anomalies of the atmospheric general circulation. Comparisons of the actual mean monthly fields with the long-term monthly climatology provide key inputs in monitoring the magnitude and regional characteristics of any departure from normal of the climate system. In line with normal practice, these data were presented in the Climate Monitoring Bulletin (CMB), one of several routine monthly products generated by the NCC.
In addition to the CMB, the NCC maintained timely production of the Monthly Rainfall Review, the Monthly Drought Review, a set of weekly and monthly analyses and statements, the Seasonal Climate Outlook (SCO), and the Annual Climate Summary. Seasonal summaries (for summer, autumn, winter, and spring) focussing on the Southern Hemisphere and, in particular, the Australasian region, were provided for publication in the Australian Meteorological Magazine. Climate and Consultancy Services sections in each State and the Northern Territory continued the regular production of their Monthly Weather Reviews and the Northern Territory office maintained production of the Darwin Tropical Diagnostic Statement and Weekly Tropical Climate Note. These publications and the underlying analyses contributed to the real-time monitoring of the resurgent La Niña conditions in late 1999, which were associated with widespread flooding and frequent tropical cyclone activity over the 1999-2000 summer.
Web-based products continued to be the focus for enhancements and development of operational climate monitoring. Several new categories of rainfall analyses were added,together with rainfall percentages of normal and departures from the long-term average for periods up to 12 months. Included in the "percentages of mean" charts are month-to-date, northern wet season-to-date, southern wet season-to-date, and year-to-date. These "to-date" analyses are particularly useful for monitoring rainfall variability on intraseasonal time scales, and were useful in monitoring the failure of early season rainfall in the cropping areas of southwest Western Australia. Users of these electronic and published products include Federal and State agencies, planning bodies and several community sectors.
The total number of climate data, information, monitoring, prediction and advisory services provided in 1999-2000 was 290,369 and the number of accesses to automated climate service delivery systems was some 973,000, both well in excess of targets of 250,000 and 550,000 respectively. The high number of accesses from automated systems was predominantly due to the larger than expected increase in the number of visits to climate products on the Bureau's Web site. Fax and phone services offer a much smaller range of products, but enable `equity of access', and the number of accesses has remained near 20,000 per year in recent years (Figure 42).
Figure 42. The total number of telephone, facsimile and Internet accesses to automated climate service delivery systems for 1996-97 to 1999-00.
Climate prediction
Scientifically-based climate prediction is in demand both nationally and internationally and so is an increasingly important component of the Bureau's Climate Services, providing the opportunity for adaptation and risk management in climate sensitive activities. Following the switch to sea surface temperature (SST)-based rainfall outlooks in 1998-99, the Seasonal Climate Outlook saw another significant change with the introduction of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature outlooks. The first of these was issued in February 2000 for the autumn (Figure 43). The temperature outlooks are expected to be generally more skilful than the corresponding rainfall outlooks, both in terms of the area of Australia over which the outlooks have useful skill, and the skill with which peak values can be predicted. Abbreviated climate forecasts were provided in a timely fashion through the public media, aswell as on the Bureau of Meteorology's Web site, while more detailed information, including forecasts from an ocean-atmosphere dynamic model was published in the Seasonal Climate Outlook, and provided to specialist users.
Figure 43. An example of the new seasonal temperature outlook product, showing the probability of exceeding the median maximum temperature (top) and the median minimum temperature (bottom) for March-May 2000.
The wide range of climate extremes experienced during 1999-2000, and particularly the very active northern tropical wet/cyclone season, and ongoing rainfall deficiencies in southern Australia, generated considerable demand for climate briefings and outlooks from both the public and the private sectors. As a result of the prolonged rainfall deficiencies in Melbourne catchments and surrounding areas, the Climate Analysis section of the NCC had frequent discussions with Melbourne Water, relating to the Drought Watch Service and the Seasonal Climate Outlook, which played an important role in Melbourne Water's strategic planning and the issuing of public advice via the media.
Regionally, the demands placed on the Climate and Consultancy Services sections for local climate outlook and monitoring information were high over the past year. Rural and urban water management authorities, agriculturalists, energy suppliers, and State Governments were intense users of these services at the State level.
Products development
The SILO project, a three-year collaborative undertaking between the Bureau of Meteorology and the Queensland Department of Natural Resources to provide Web access to enhanced meteorological data, was completed this financial year. SILO development was partly funded through the Climate Variability in Agriculture R&D Program (CVAP) administered through the Land and Water Resources Research and Development Corporation (LWRRDC). Hence the project was strongly user-needs driven. A final report was submitted to LWRRDC as part of the terms of the funding.
The outcome of the project is a range of products available through the SILO Web site (www.bom.gov.au/silo). Products added this year include:
· Seasonal Temperature Outlooks; and
· Meteograms, which are weather outlooks for any location derived straight from the Bureau's numerical weather prediction model. These have been very popular, with over 170 subscribers in the first year, and were a component of briefings for the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games.
The Bureau also allocated additional resources towards development of educational material, including case studies on how SILO products may be used. These are available at the SILO Information Reservoir (www.bom.gov.au/silo/educational/).
Projects spawned from the SILO project to further improve services and address user needs included:
· the Meteogram Improvement Project, an internal Bureau project to improve computer model output, commissioned following user feedback;
· `SILO II', a project to improve the user interface of SILO, commissioned following user feedback and the offer of further funding from CVAP ; and
· projects to use the seven-day meteogram outlooks for improved irrigation scheduling and cotton harvesting, following discussions with agricultural organisations.
Government, community and industry planning have always included some consideration of the local climate and its variability, but this consideration has increased substantially in recent times with planners seeking more detailed, more application-specific and more accessible climate information and using climate monitoring updates to adjust their plans in the short-term. Responding to these needs, the National Climate Centre has increased substantially its range of automated analyses of climate elements over the past few years and improved accessibility by making these available on the Bureau's Web site. During 1999-2000, and to meet modern needs for high resolution mapping, the NCC commenced a program to produce new, high-quality maps of basic climate elements such as rainfall, temperature, evaporation, etc., as well as maps with specific practical applications, such as frost frequency and comfort indices. The maps are intended for a wide variety of users, ranging from those with a general interest in climatology to those requiring detailed information for planning in agriculture,industry, and water resource management. Maps of monthly and annual average rainfall and temperature were made available as electronic files and geographic information system layers, and low resolution versions of the maps were posted on the Bureau's Web site. Maps of relative humidity, rain-day frequency, and thunderdays were also well advanced.
NCC continued to provide a tailored climate mapping service to the community on a consultancy basis this year. A map of Australian climate types, based on the Koeppen classification, and derived from high resolution temperature and rainfall analyses, was published, and posters depicting monthly average temperature and rainfall were made available. Demand for the Bureau's low resolution gridded monthly rainfall analyses remained steady.
Communicating climate information
During 1999-2000, enhanced Internet-based climate education resources were developed as part of a general upgrade to the Bureau's `Learn About Meteorology' Web pages. These pages will provide new electronic resource material, particularly relevant to Australian teachers and students.
An ongoing challenge is to present probability-based seasonal forecasts in easily understood terms. To service a wide range of users, resources were assigned to generalising the categories for which percentages are calculated, allowing the prediction of probabilities of any size, rather than being limited to predefined categories, such as terciles.
In an effort to increase understanding of the outlooks, staff attended rural field days and farm management seminars. Seasonal outlook forums were also commenced, where representative end-users of the SCO are invited to attend the monthly climate meetings and offer feedback. Comments provided at these workshops will be used to guide the continued improvement of the Bureau's seasonal outlook services.
A staff member of the National Climate Centre at the Bureau's display at the Wimmera Field Days.
Display stands showcasing Bureau climate services were constructed by all State offices for promotion of services and liaison with users at major agricultural shows and National Science Week. Presentations were given at conferences, schools and to target user groups to further public education and liaison. Visits to Bureau offices were also received, particularly from intensive users of climate data such as state agriculture departments, as well as overseas colleagues keen to share expertise.
Media interaction played a regular role in communicating climate information to the Australian public. Monthly press releases, now available on the Bureau's Web site, provided routine State updates for the press, with staff contacted as required at other times. One staff member also participated in an ABC `Science Media Fellowship' (six weeks work at the ABC Science Unit) to learn more about media needs, and to gain skills in the presentation of climate science information. A two minute story on `meteograms' shown on the `Quantum' television program was just one successful outcome from participation in the fellowship. A weekly climate spot on `The Weather Channel', a new pay-tv channel for rural areas, widened further the distribution of climate information.
Use of the Internet also broadened user liaison. Staff responded to regular queries from e-mails through the Bureau's web site, engaged in Internet chats and forums to introduce SILO and climate services to the National Farmers Federation's `Farmwide' Internet group and the Birchip Cropping Group. Hits to the SILO Web site continued their upward trend, particularly with the introduction of the `meteogram' product in July 1999 (Figure 44), and subscriptions numbers jumped from 40 to 220 for the entire site.
Figure 44. Monthly hits to the SILO Web site since its launch in July 1997.
Another indicator of user satisfaction with the Bureau's Climate Services was received this year when SILO won a joint silver award at the `Government in Technology Awards 2000', along with the Bureau's CMSS project. SILO was also a semi-finalist in the Telstra Internet Awards 1999.
International climate information exchange
To further meet the Bureau's international obligations, summaries of recent climate patterns in the Australia-Southwest Pacific region were provided for the WMO Annual Statement on the Status of the Global Climate, and for the US Climate Prediction Center's Annual Climate Assessment. These summaries highlighted the generally widespread rainfall and flooding associated with a resurgent La Niña event in the second half of 1999, but also the ongoing long-term rainfall deficiencies in Australia's southeast. In return, the Bureau gained access to global climate information, enabling the monitoring of the state of the global climate system at any time.
Whilst the current statistical forecasting scheme used for the Seasonal Climate Outlook displays skill over many regions, ongoing research in the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) is examining the feasibility of Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) seasonal and longer-range outlooks. A CGCM developed by the BMRC, as well as the current operational seasonal outlook scheme, were tested for longer-range skill as part of the Bureau of Meteorology's contribution to the WMO World Weather Watch, Standard Verification System (SVS) for long-range forecast verification. The NCC offered to co-ordinate collection and collation of the verification statistics for the SVS, and in doing so will be a leading participant in this important global WMO project over the following year.
The NCC, following a resolution at the sixth South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) Meeting of Directors in Tahiti in 1999, began collating Australian and international climate analyses and seasonal outlooks for the South Pacific region and disseminating these to the directors of South Pacific Meteorological Services. The collation of diagnostic and prognostic climate information was published electronically on a monthly basis in the South Pacific Outlook Reference Material Bulletin.
2 Includes adjustments made to initial output allocations (as published in the Portfolio Budget Statement 1999-2000) in the light of further analysis of the overall resource situation following the Budget.
a Targets published in the 1999-2000 Environment and Heritage Portfolio Budget Statement (PBS).
b Cost re-balancing across the individual outputs post-budget has led to cost increases and decreases within the Major Output price. An overall price increase of approximately $1.5m is due to the combined effect of the transfer of trust accounts into the accrual framework and changes to the formula for calculating operating lease rentals (OLR) which led to a re-balancing of OLR across all Major Outputs.
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