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WEATHER SERVICES
Weather Services encompasses a wide range of forecast, warning and information services to the general public, national and international shipping and aviation, the Department of Defence and other users. It consists of six individual outputs:
· Severe Weather Warning Services;
· Public Weather Services;
· Marine Services;
· Aviation Weather Services;
· Defence Weather Services; and
· Special Weather Services.
All these services are dependent on the data and products produced by the National Meteorological Operations Centre (NMOC) and the seven Regional Forecasting Centres (RFCs).
Services are provided mainly through the RFCs in the State capital cities and Darwin, and through the NMOC located in Melbourne. All these Centres maintain a 24-hour weather watch every day of the year, issuing forecasts, warnings and other weather information as required.
Weather Services are also provided through 45 other service outlets, with 43 throughout Australia and two at Australian bases in Antarctica. The primary function of most of the Bureau's offices in rural and remote areas is to provide high quality weather observations (surface, upper air and weather watch radar) but they have an important complementary role in providing current weather information and a range of other services to their local communities.
A large part of the Bureau's output of weather services is available to the Australian community through the mass media (radio, television, newspapers) but services are also accessible via recorded telephone, marine high frequency (HF) radio, facsimile and World Wide Web/Internet systems.
Weather Services are provided in line with the Bureau of Meteorology's Service Charter for the Community. A broad range of consultative mechanisms were in place during 1999-2000, involving Commonwealth and State Authorities, and major commercial and community user groups, to help ensure that services evolve and are continuously improved in accord with user needs.
The Bureau's tropical cyclone warning services were tested during one of the most active tropical cyclone seasons on record, with eleven cyclones, including four which reached Category 5, the most powerful on the severity scale. The performance of the Bureau's warning services for these was highly satisfactory. For example, the accuracy of the 24-hour position estimates for the season was the highest on record and the accuracy of the 12-hour position estimates was close to the highest.
The definition of a Basic Product Set, which encompasses those services provided free of charge to the public through the mass media and the Internet, was completed towards the end of the year and an implementation date set at 1 August 2000.
Significant activity continued in the follow-up to the Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999. Recent figures from the Insurance Council of Australia confirm that the hailstorm was the costliest natural disaster on record for Australia, in terms of insured damage, with a total payout of $1.7 billion, which is $0.6 billion higher than that for the Newcastle earthquake (in 1999 dollars). Roof damage was so extensive that some of the repairs were still not completed at the end of June 2000. Two independent reviews of the Bureau's performance were completed towards the end of 1999, by Dr Jeff Kimpel, from the US National Severe Storms Laboratory, who examined the scientific and technological aspects of the Bureau's severe weather warning services, and Dr Clare Pollock, an expert in human factorsmanagement from Curtin University, Western Australia, who evaluated operational practices and procedures and the adequacy of associated training.
In addition to these reviews, the performance audit conducted by the Australian National Audit Office during 1998-99, was extended to assess the allocation of severe weather resources against the management of known and likely severe weather risks, especially for Sydney. The audit report was tabled in the Parliament on 22 December 1999. Its conclusion focussed on three areas: quality of services, cost of services and severe weather services, and 10 recommendations for action. The Bureau agreed, or agreed with qualification, to each of the 10 recommendations and commenced follow-up action on these, and the 30 recommendations of the Kimpel and Pollock reviews, during the latter part of the year. The recommendations of the reviews have implications far beyond the provision of warning services for severe thunderstorms in Sydney. Follow-up actions commenced in the Bureau in relation to weather forecaster competencies and training, organisational procedures, thunderstorm forecasting in general, research and development and communications systems.
Significant resources were committed during the year to the preparation for, and participation in, the Coronial Inquiry into the loss of six lives in the 1998 Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race. This commenced in March and is expected to be completed before the end of 2000.
In December 1999, the full bench of the High Court handed down its judgment in the Airservices Australia versus Monarch Airlines case, upholding the validity of the previous charging arrangements for the provision of services to civil aviation. While the successful resolution of the long-standing legal challenge helped to clarify the charging regime issue, the introduction of the outcomes and outputs based accrual budgeting framework has had a significant impact on the calculation and presentation of future charges.
Top of PageThe resources committed to Weather Services in 1999-2000 are summarised in Table 3 and are given in more detail in Table 12.
Table 12. Weather Services expenses and revenue ($'000) and staff level for 1999-2000 compared with reconstructed estimates for 1998-99 and the 1999-2000 Budget and Budget plus Additional Estimates appropriations.
ESTIMATED |
BUDGET2 |
BUDGET & |
ACTUAL | |
ACTUAL |
ADD. EST. |
|||
1998-99 |
1999-2000 |
1999-2000 |
1999-2000 | |
($'000) |
($'000) |
($'000) |
($'000) | |
FINANCIAL |
||||
EXPENSES |
||||
Employee Expenses (Appropriation) |
25,868 |
26,031 |
25,588 |
26,464 |
Employee Expenses (Section 31) |
533 |
668 |
832 |
831 |
Supply of Goods and Services (Appropriation) |
2,274 |
2,683 |
2,689 |
2,809 |
Supply of Goods and Services (Section 31) |
4,453 |
4,532 |
3,152 |
2,193 |
Operating Lease Rentals |
1,808 |
1,695 |
1,688 |
1,564 |
Depreciation |
2,265 |
1,754 |
1,702 |
1,842 |
Other Goods and Services Expenses
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Capital Use Charge |
111 |
-205 |
-234 |
-190 |
TOTAL PRICE OF OUTPUT |
37,312 |
37,158 |
35,416 |
35,513 |
REVENUE |
||||
Appropriations |
32,327 |
31,958 |
31,421 |
31,421 |
Sale of Goods and Services |
4,986 |
5,200 |
3,983 |
3,983 |
Miscellaneous - other |
0 |
0 |
12 |
12 |
TOTAL REVENUE |
37,312 |
37,158 |
35,416 |
35,416 |
STAFFING |
||||
Staff Years (actual) |
||||
- Funded from Employee Expenses (Appropriation) |
314.0 |
308.1 |
308.1 |
307.5 |
- Funded from Supplier Expenses (Appropriation) |
1.7 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
- Funded from Section 31 Receipts |
11.4 |
10.3 |
10.8 |
10.8 |
- Funded from Capitalised Salaries
|
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
TOTAL |
327.1 |
320.0 |
320.6 |
320.0 |
Performance during 1999-2000 was assessed at two levels in terms of the:
· contribution to the achievement of the planned outcome; and
· quality, quantity and price of the outputs directed to the achievement of the planned outcome relative to agreed target levels.
The measures used are as published in the Portfolio Budget Statements 1999-2000 for the Environment and Heritage Portfolio (Budget Related Paper No 1.7).
Performance indicators relating to the achievement of the planned outcome for 1999-2000 are given in Table 13.
Table 13. Indicators of achievement of planned outcome: Enhanced community safety and well-being through the effective use of weather and related services by the general public and other major social and economic sectors.
The extent to which:· weather and related services contribute to:
- the safety and efficiency of shipping, small craft and maritime industries;
· forecasts, warnings, information and advice are accurate and timely;
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The performance of Weather Services is monitored and reviewed on a regular basis through:
· quarterly surveys of public opinion, conducted by an external company;
· representations to the Parliamentary Secretary and the Minister for the Environmentand Heritage and to the Director of Meteorology by members of the public and industry bodies;
· queries and complaints made directly to the Bureau of Meteorology via the Bureau's Internet-based user feedback facility;
· public reports of detailed post-analyses of major severe weather events (e.g. the Sydney hailstorm of 14 April 1999) or major seasonal activity (e.g. the tropical cyclone season, the fire weather season);
· feedback from regular consultative meetings with major user groups such as the media, Australasian Fire Authorities Council, state emergency services organisations, state tropical cyclone liaison committees, the aviation industry and the Department of Defence;
· achievement of milestones for the planned introduction of new services;
· trends in the accuracy of forecasts of weather elements such as maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and tropical cyclone location;
· trends in the effectiveness of severe weather warnings, using measures such as the advance warning time given prior to the occurrence of dangerous weather events and the false alarm ratio (an indicator of when warnings are issued unnecessarily);
· trends in the volume and variety of products issued; and
· trends in the resources used in delivering weather services.
A summary of the 1999-2000 performance targets and results for Weather Services in terms of output quality, quantity and price is given in Table 14. Detailed discussion of these results follows under the individual output headings.
Table 14. Summary of 1999-2000 Performance in terms of the quality, quantity and price of Weather Services.
|
PERFORMANCE MEASURE |
TARGETa |
ACTUAL | |
|
QUALITY |
Percentage of users surveyed indicate that public weather forecasts and warnings are 'accurate' or 'getting more accurate' |
85% |
85% |
|
Percentage of users surveyed indicate that they are 'satisfied' or 'very satisfied' with weather forecast, warning and information services |
90% |
90% | |
|
Forecast service targets:
|
TBA
|
1.4°C
| |
|
Percentage of users receiving warnings in time for effective decision-making |
TBA |
82% | |
|
Percentage of forecasts and routine products issued on schedule |
95% |
95% | |
|
Percentage downtime for automated access services |
0.1% |
0.18% | |
|
Percentage of commercial contracts completed on timeb |
90% |
100% | |
|
Percentage of existing clients renew commercial contracts. |
90% |
97% | |
|
QUANTITY |
Public weather warnings issued |
9,000 - 13,000 |
15,384 |
|
Public weather forecast and information bulletins issued |
500,000 -550,000 |
461,190 | |
|
Accesses by telephone/facsimile |
10 - 12 million |
7.87 million | |
|
Accesses by the Internet for automated weather service delivery systems |
75 - 150 million |
152.6 million | |
|
Growth in revenues of the Special Services Unit (SSU)b |
5% |
16% | |
|
Increase in the number of SSU employees as measures of the level of commercial service provision.b |
5% |
14% | |
|
PRICE |
Costs of provision of Severe Weather Warning Services |
$3.090m |
$3.938m |
|
Costs of provision of Public Weather Services |
$11.116m |
$10.783m | |
|
Costs of provision of Marine Services |
$1.543m |
$1.209m | |
|
Costs of provision of Aviation Weather Services |
$16.079m |
$13.833mc | |
|
Costs of provision of Defence Weather Services |
$5.664m |
$3.566md | |
|
Costs of provision of Special Weather Services |
$2.815m |
$2.184m | |
Severe Weather Warning Services assist the community in preparing for and responding to tropical cyclones, severe storms, bushfires and gales over land. These services are provided through the Bureau's State-based Regional Forecasting Centres (RFCs) with national coordination by the Head Office Services Policy Branch, and very close links with State and Commonwealth emergency services and disaster preparedness organisations.
The number of weather warnings issued to the general public together with the numbers of forecasts issued and weather enquiries received during the year is given in Table 15.
Quarterly surveys conducted during the year showed that over 80 percent of users of the Bureau's weather services believe that weather forecasts, warnings and information services are received in time for them to make their decisions. This performance measure covers the issues of whether the service was issued according to schedule, the appropriateness of that schedule to the decision needs of users and the lead times associated with warnings and their adequacy in the context of the users' decision requirements.
Tropical cyclone warning services
Tropical cyclone warning services are provided for northeast, northern and northwestern Australia, from Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) co-located with the Brisbane, Darwin and Perth RFCs. The planning and operation of the tropical cyclone warning service is closely linked to, and coordinated with, the State Emergency Services in Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia to maximise the effectiveness of community preparedness and response.
Table 15. Annual numbers of weather warnings issued to the general public together with the numbers of forecasts issued and weather enquiries received for the financial years 1994-95 to 1999-2000. Also shown are the numbers of forecasts, warnings and other advices provided to the aviation industry.
|
WARNINGS |
1994-95 |
1995-96 |
1996-97 |
1997-98 |
1998-99 |
1999-2000 |
|
Strong wind warnings for small craft |
5,412 |
2,809 |
6,043 |
4,488 |
5,647 |
7,035 |
|
Gale/storm warnings for shipping |
2,690 |
4,445 |
2,772 |
3,076 |
2,885 |
3,444 |
|
Flood warnings |
642 |
946 |
1,382 |
506 |
2,097 |
1,445 |
|
Fire weather warnings |
206 |
551 |
310 |
215 |
70 |
248 |
|
Road weather alerts |
324 |
219 |
231 |
273 |
232 |
379 |
|
Severe thunderstorm warnings |
399 |
202 |
416 |
383 |
541 |
788 |
|
Sheep graziers alerts |
190 |
100 |
181 |
192 |
161 |
181 |
|
Tropical cyclone warnings |
268 |
1,036 |
454 |
173 |
448 |
1,306 |
|
Gale/storm wind warnings for land areas |
192 |
105 |
208 |
188 |
337 |
244 |
|
Miscellaneous alerts (frost, brown rot, storm tide, etc.) |
341 |
304 |
204 |
289 |
269 |
314 |
|
Total |
10,664 |
10,717 |
12,201 |
9,783 |
12,687 |
15,384 |
|
FORECASTS |
||||||
|
States, districts, cities, towns |
328,050 |
330,946 |
303,536 |
296,816 |
303,003 |
206,648 |
|
Shipping, boating |
83,200 |
82,314 |
80,002 |
86,580 |
90,399 |
121,850 |
|
Fire weather |
37,741 |
41,416 |
46,291 |
40,012 |
31,099 |
15,255 |
|
Public utilities and other special interests |
12,639 |
13,524 |
15,883 |
13,872 |
13,707 |
11,557 |
|
Extended period |
43,706 |
50,172 |
62,218 |
63,544 |
78,724 |
104,359 |
|
Agricultural interests |
1,770 |
2,022 |
2,537 |
2,120 |
2,948 |
1,521 |
|
Total |
507,106 |
520,394 |
510,467 |
502,944 |
519,880 |
461,190 |
|
WEATHER ENQUIRIES |
||||||
|
Enquiries (forecasts, current weather, climate etc.) |
||||||
|
- determined by sampling |
973,392 |
933,731 |
910,399 |
787,415 |
802,352 |
946,106 |
|
Calls to recorded telephone forecasts (Dial It) |
8,868,713 |
6,899,471 |
8,852,915 |
8,082,967 |
5,467,962 |
4,346,086 |
|
Calls to recorded telephone service (1900) |
261,674 |
262,710 |
292,112 |
442,677 |
715,216 |
516,183 |
|
Weather by Fax |
1,288,152 |
1,688,675 |
1,810,070 |
1,493,485 |
1,682,860 |
1,129,692 |
|
Total |
11,391,931 |
9,784,587 |
11,865,496 |
10,807,544 |
8,668,390 |
6,938,067 |
|
BASIC AVIATION INFORMATION, |
||||||
|
Aerodrome Forecasts |
233,958 |
237,596 |
234,638 |
221,601 |
231,659 |
217,157 |
|
Aircraft altimeter settings needed for height |
54,692 |
47,468 |
52,174 |
52,629 |
47,020 |
32,829 |
|
above sea level (Area QNH) |
||||||
|
Route Forecasts |
6,899 |
6,733 |
9,991 |
9,695 |
9,608 |
6,690 |
|
Three-hour trend type forecasts |
167,197 |
177,790 |
179,696 |
188,373 |
173,622 |
147,749 |
|
Area forecasts |
38,887 |
41,362 |
41,374 |
34,546 |
36,719 |
30,204 |
|
Warnings (SIGMET, AIRMET, Airport Hazards) |
4,120 |
2,788 |
2,486 |
2,765 |
2,799 |
2,404 |
|
Aerodrome Advices |
0 |
2 |
0 |
1,400 |
0 |
0 |
|
Search and Rescue services |
139 |
74 |
143 |
201 |
132 |
73 |
|
Pilot Briefing Services |
79,437 |
68,231 |
65,999 |
60,485 |
58,596 |
49,050 |
|
Pilot Documentation |
25,022 |
18,608 |
17,462 |
14,457 |
12,103 |
8,008 |
|
Total |
610,351 |
600,652 |
603,965 |
586,152 |
573,457 |
494,164 |
Australia experienced another active tropical cyclone season in 1999-2000. Eleven cyclones occurred within the Australian area of responsibility, including four which reached Category 5, the most powerful on the severity scale. These were John, Paul, Norman and Rosita. Tropical cyclone Steve was notable for its extremely lengthy track and long life. A detailed description of each of these systems is included in the Weather Summary for 1999-2000 in Appendix 7 of this Report.
Overall performance of the tropical cyclone warning service was highly satisfactory this year. Figures 31 and 32 show the overall accuracy of cyclone position and intensity estimates, respectively. Compared with previous years, the error of the 24-hour forecast position estimates was the lowest on record and only very slightly above the target of 150 km. The error of the 12-hour position estimates was close to the lowest and at 90 km was better than the target level of 100 km for this forecast period. The error of the 0-hour initial position estimate was on target at 40 km. The accuracy of operational estimates of tropical cyclone intensity has shown a gradual improvement over the last 15 years, but, at 9 hPa, remained above the target level of 5 hPa again this year.
Figure 31. Accuracy of operational estimates of tropical cyclone position in the Australian region for the 1973-74 to 1999-2000 seasons and relative to post-event best estimates. The 0-hour position error represents the average distance (km) between the operational, real-time estimates of cyclone position and the post-event best estimates. The 12-hour and 24-hour position error represent the average position error (km) of 12-hour and 24-hour position forecasts. The straight lines are lines of best fit.
Figure 32. Accuracy of operational estimates of tropical cyclone intensity as the standard deviation in the operational, real-time estimates of cyclone central pressure (hPa) in the Australian region for the 1985-86 to 1999-2000 seasons and relative to the post-event best estimates. The straight line is a line of best fit.
During 1999-2000, threat maps for tropical cyclones were made available on the Bureau's Web site for all three Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres, following their introduction the previous season for Queensland and Western Australia. These maps offer a graphicaldepiction of the location and past movement of a cyclone, its wind distribution and the areas of the coast that are likely to be affected.
Severe thunderstorm warning services
Severe thunderstorms are particularly intense convective storms which produce destructive winds, damaging hail, tornadoes or heavy rain conducive to flash-flooding. The Bureau provides forecasts of such thunderstorms in the form of Severe Thunderstorm Advices and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. The Severe Thunderstorm Advice Service operates over the southern half of mainland Australia, including southeast Queensland (Figure 33), and provides advice of likely areas for the development of severe thunderstorms, up to four hours ahead. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, up to one hour ahead are issued for capital cities and their surrounding areas where radar surveillance allows assessment of the severity of thunderstorms which have already developed.
Figure 33. Warning and Advice areas under the Bureau's Severe Thunderstorm Warning Service.
The development, movement and intensity of severe thunderstorms are very difficult to monitor, even with the benefit of continuous radar surveillance. Thus a national network of 2790 volunteer "storm spotters" provides significant assistance to forecasters, for both the issue of warnings and the eventual verification of those warnings, by reporting and confirming occurrences of severe thunderstorms.
During 1999-2000 there were 227 reports of severe thunderstorms across Australia and 788 warnings/advices issued, compared with 276 reports and 541 warnings/advices in the previous year (see Table 15).
The national measurement of the quality of severe thunderstorm forecasts is currently confined to warnings. This approach was adopted because of the differences between Regions in their severe thunderstorm advice services and the fact that no advice service exists in the Northern Territory or Tasmania. The indicators used to measure forecast quality are theProbability of Detection (POD), which is the proportion of correctly-warned severe thunderstorms (ideally 1; performance target =0.7), and the False Alarm Ratio (FAR), which is the proportion of "false alarm" severe thunderstorm warnings (ideally 0; performance target = 0.4). The performance targets have been set as an ultimate overall goal based on an assessment of what is achievable using historical records of such statistics in both Australia and the US, but also taking into account an estimate of the accuracy needed for the warnings to be useful to the community.
Figure 34. Nationally-averaged values of Probability of Detection (POD -fraction of events for which advance warning was provided) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR - fraction of warnings which were false alarms) for the past seven years (1993-2000) for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (all Australian capital cities except Canberra).
Figure 34 presents the annual trend in the national POD and FAR values for the Severe Thunderstorm Warning Service over the past seven years. The data demonstrate significant variations in POD and FAR from year to year, in part due to the small sample sizes involved in the calculations. There is no significant trend in the figures, which also show that the target for FAR is reached reasonably often, but that the target for POD is seldom reached.
Another statistic which provides a measure of the Bureau's warning performance is the `average lead time' of warnings, assessed for the first time in 1999-2000. Lead time is defined as the time between the mid-point of the time period during which the severe thunderstorm was reported in the warning area and the time of issue of the warning. A total of 41 severe thunderstorm events were recorded in the metropolitan warning areas in 1999-2000 and for the 14 for which warnings were issued, lead times ranged from seven to 211 minutes. Many of these lead times would have provided sufficient advance notice to the community to enable protective actions to be take. Over all events, with lead times of zero minutes allocated for missed events, the average lead time was 25 minutes. For the correctly forecast events, the large range in lead times is due to a range of factors including the varying size of warning districts and the availability of timely observations. Shorter lead time warnings are issued upon receipt of a severe weather report or detection of severe characteristics on radar. Longer lead time warnings are, however, possible whenthunderstorms develop within, or move into, an environment assessed as conducive to severe thunderstorms.
Fire weather warning services
The Fire Weather Warning Service provides the public with routine forecasts of fire danger during the fire season and fire weather warnings when the fire danger is expected to exceed a certain critical level. The Service also provides fire management authorities, civil defence organisations, police and other emergency services with detailed routine forecasts, fire weather warnings, operational forecasts to assist in combatting ongoing fires, including, where possible, out-posted support, special forecasts for hazard reduction burns and other advice to assist the assessment and management of fire risk.
The 1999-2000 year was fairly average overall with respect to fire weather. There were several days of extreme fire danger in most areas, but none of these were protracted periods or resulted in disastrous fires. One significant region of fire activity was the Top End of the Northern Territory, where abundant grass growth over the summertime wet season was followed by a windy start to the 2000 wintertime dry season. Rural firefighters reported the busiest start of the Top End bushfire season for more than 10 years. Apart from general property losses and the loss of vegetation in the fires that did occur across Australia, three firefighters died while managing a planned burn near Mt Kuring-gai, New South Wales.
A measure of the effectiveness of the fire weather warning service is the extent to which the community is accurately warned of severe events. Severe events in the fire weather context are those windy, hot and dry atmospheric conditions which, when combined with dry vegetation, constitute a high fire risk. Performance trends for fire weather warnings over the past seven years are shown in Figure 35 in terms of Probability Of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR). The figure shows an improvement over the period in the fraction of severe events for which advance warning was successfully provided, without incurring any increased rate of false alarms. The performance target for 1999-2000 of POD exceeding 0.6 and FAR below 0.4 was achieved.
Figure 35. Recent preliminary trends in fire weather warning service performance, as indicated by Probability Of Detection (POD - fraction of events for which advance warning was provided) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR - fraction of warnings which were false alarms).
Significant activities in 1999-2000 which contributed to the improvement of fire weather services and identified areas for upgrading included:
· enhanced support for the safe and effective conduct of hazard reduction burning, particularly by providing information which supports better management of the impact of smoke from such operations;
· ongoing efforts to apply fire danger rating systems in the most appropriate and reliable manner, particularly by utilising recent research findings by CSIRO;
· efforts to better document and understand the detailed structure and behaviour of those weather events having greatest significance for bushfire occurrence, particularly through enhanced mesoscale modelling;
· ongoing enhancement of services designed to provide longer period outlooks to assist planning and preparation by fire and land management agencies;
· continued close collaboration with relevant fire and land management agencies at State and national levels in a review of the operational procedures used to calculate the McArthur Drought Factor, which is a critical component of the McArthur Forest Fire Danger calculation;
· conducting the Eighth Bureau of Meteorology Fire Weather Workshop at Albury, Victoria on 5-6 July 1999 including an open forum day which attracted wide involvement from the fire community; and
· attendance by Bureau staff at a range of national and international conferences related to fire weather.
Public Weather Services include a wide range of weather information and forecasting services for the community at large. Weather information services include current and recent weather observations from the Bureau's extensive observing network, analyses of meteorologicalconditions and weather satellite imagery. Weather forecasts are provided for some 160 cities and towns and more than 60 regional districts according to community needs.
These services also include various public alerts and advices of conditions that pose a threat to health or safety, such as forecasts of ultraviolet (UVB) radiation levels and Road Weather Alerts.
In 1999 - 2000, 461,190 routine public weather forecasts and information bulletins were issued. An ongoing nationwide survey was conducted to monitor the success of these products in meeting the community need for weather information that enhances their safety and enables them to make decisions on daily activities. Ninety percent of users surveyed were satisfied or very satisfied with the weather forecast, warning and information services they received. One hundred percent of rural and 94% of metropolitan respondents considered that weather forecast and warning services are essential services. The survey also confirmed the fact that an increasing percentage of the population is using the Internet to access weather information.
The survey's results are reinforced by the Bureau's internal forecast verification results, presented for forecast maximum and minimum temperature in Figure 36. These show that the accuracy of temperature forecasts has been improving steadily over the last 30 years, most notably from the mid-1980s onwards. This improvement is largely a reflection of improvements in the operational numerical models as well as in the scientific expertise of the forecasters. The target for this performance measure for 1999-2000 was set at 1.4°C. Figure 36 shows that this year the error in maximum temperature forecasts was only slightly above this target level while the error in minimum temperature forecasts was significantly below.
Figure 36. Trends in the mean modulus error in maximum and minimum temperature forecasts for all State capital cities and Canberra.
Further to the signing of an agreement between the Bureau and the Sydney Organising Committee for the Olympic Games (SOCOG), a range of services was provided during the Trial Games held in Sydney in September 1999. This was an opportunity for both the Bureauand SOCOG to evaluate systems and services in preparation for the Olympic and Paralympic Games to be held in September and October 2000. Forecasts along the route of the Olympic Torch Relay commenced when the Olympic Torch landed at Uluru on 8 June. These forecasts proved to be of considerable assistance to organisers and the general public.
Sailing competition manager Glenn Bourke, SOCOG Deputy Chief Executive Officer Jim Sloman, and Director of Meteorology Dr John Zillman mark the signing of the Olympic Games agreement.
The Bureau's National Media Graphics Unit and Regional Offices continued to work closely with newspapers in the preparation of graphical weather information pages in a range of daily and weekly publications, enhancing the public understanding of meteorology and the effectiveness of the Bureau's public weather services products.
The Bureau also conducted further investigations into the feasibility of introducing a Thermal Stress Advice Service, the aim of which would be to alert the public to take precautions during periods of unusually high temperatures and humidity. The need for such a service was again highlighted in Brisbane in January when high temperatures resulted in an increased demand for health services.
Top of PageDuring 1999-2000, the Bureau's Marine Services were delivered in an environment of continuing change and increased national coordination activity. Work especially related to the follow-on from the 1998 Sydney-Hobart Yacht Race, the programmed improvement to marine meteorological and oceanographic observing networks, and the development of a new marine forecasting system.
The quality and effectiveness of the marine services continued to attract close public scrutiny as a result of the Inquiry being held by the NSW Coroner into the loss of six lives during the 1998 Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race. The Inquiry commenced in March 2000, and wasexpected to have been completed during the first few months of 2000-2001. The Bureau has been represented at the Inquiry by senior legal counsel, and evidence has been given in court by senior managers and staff directly involved in providing the pre-race briefings and the forecast service during the race.
In the light of internal review of the meteorological services provided by the Bureau for the Race, by both the Bureau and by the Cruising Yacht Club of Australia (CYCA), a number of improvements were instituted for the 1999 event. These included added descriptions of potentially damaging wind and wave conditions, on occasions when the strength of wind gusts or likely maximum wave heights were expected to exceed agreed threshold criteria. For the first time in the Race's history, the Bureau's coastal waters forecasts and warnings for the race area were broadcast directly to all competing yachts via the Inmarsat C satellite, following provision of receiving equipment to the yachts by the major sponsor of the Race. The format of the forecasts and operational arrangements between the Bureau and the CYCA were streamlined to ensure smooth and effective delivery and receipt of all relevant weather information from the Bureau.
The volume of output products provided as marine services continued to increase (see Table 15). In 1999-2000, 121,850 shipping and boating forecasts, and 10,479 marine warnings were issued.
The Bureau's Marine Web Page provides forecasts, warnings, meteorological observations and charts, as well as links to other relevant and useful marine Web sites, from the Bureau's home page. The number of accesses to the Marine Page is seasonal, with the peak occurring in the warmer half of the year. During the summer of 1999-2000 around 14,000 accesses per month were recorded, which is more than double the volume of the previous summer.
Work on the development of the new Australian Marine Forecasting System (AMFS) proceeded well during the year. AMFS will provide an entirely new platform for forecasters to prepare marine forecasts using interactive graphical screen-based techniques. Forecasters will be able to interact with the digital form of the Bureau's numerical weather and marine prediction model outputs to produce detailed forecasts of wind and wave and other relevantmeteorological conditions. The facility for generating forecast texts directly from the manipulated data fields is also planned. The first prototype is expected to be evaluated by Bureau forecasting staff in the first few months of 2000-2001.
An initiative to develop a strategic plan for the Bureau's marine observing activities commenced in May 2000. The plan will provide an integrated framework for the development of marine meteorological and oceanographic observing networks over the next five years. The plan will reflect:
· growing requirements for coastal and near-shore observations;
· national objectives on the development of an Australian Ocean Observing System as part of the national Oceans Policy;
· national commitments to the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS); and
· Bureau commitments to expand coastal meteorological observations by automatic weather stations and wave conditions by wave buoy networks, and the establishment of programs to deploy offshore moored weather buoys and Argo floats from 2001-2002.
During the year two major initiatives in the area of marine radio broadcast services were undertaken.
The Bureau moved to seek its own solution to its long term marine radio needs, following the breakdown of arrangements for a tender, which was initially conducted by the Bureau jointly with the Australian Maritime Safety Authority in late 1998. A public tender for the provision of marine radio broadcast services in the MF/HF band was commenced in May 2000. The tender covered broadcasts of coastal waters and high seas forecasts and warnings and the Bureau's radio facsimile services AXM and AXI beyond 2002. The objectives for a successful tender outcome include securing a long-term supplier of radio services and improving the quality of the service, especially in relation to the frequency of repeat broadcasts throughout the day. The securing of a long-term service provider is especially important for the radio facsimile services, given the intention of the existing broadcaster (the Royal Australian Navy) to cease its involvement in the services by mid-2002.
Negotiations with Telstra were also commenced on the future of the VHF broadcasts of coastal waters forecasts and warnings that it currently undertakes for the Bureau. Agreement will be needed to continue the VHF services while new services are developed for mobile phones and Wireless Application Protocol (WAP) devices that will be more commonly in use over the next 2-4 years.
An updated version of the Bureau's national Marine Weather Services pamphlet was produced and distributed during the year. Plans were also developed for the production of a related set of more detailed State-based brochures, and a specialised yachting pamphlet in conjunction with the Australian Yachting Federation. Work proceeded to an advanced stage with both the Northern Territory and Tasmanian editions of the Winds, Waves, Weather boating information booklet.
Top of PageAviation weather services enhance the safety and efficiency of national and international aviation operations. Services are provided within the international technical and regulatory framework of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which work in close cooperation. Australian domestic aviation is regulated by the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) and air traffic management is the responsibility of Airservices Australia. Under this international and domestic framework, the Bureau of Meteorology is the designated Meteorological Authority for Australia for the purposes of the provision of aviation weather services.
Ongoing, extensive consultation with the aviation industry was a key ingredient in the development of new and improved operating procedures in 1999-2000. User consultation and arrangements for ongoing service improvements continued to be coordinated by a variety of committees, working groups and focus groups involving the Bureau of Meteorology, CASA, Airservices Australia, the major Australian airlines, the Australian Air Transport Association, airport operators and others. International consultation and coordination occurred through the WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology and various ICAO and WMO Working Groups.
The requirements and level of resources for provision of aviation weather services are formally agreed, at least annually, with aviation industry representatives. The incremental costs of providing these services are recovered from the industry. Annual charges have been progressively reduced over the past several years. In 1999-2000, the agreed charge was $14.132 million.
Aviation weather services were generated and delivered though the following major service outlets:
· the ICAO Regional Area Forecasting Centre (RAFC) in Melbourne, which operates as part of the ICAO World Area Forecast System (WAFS);
· the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) in Darwin, which is part of the global network of nine such Centres;
· the Sydney Airport Meteorological Unit (SAMU), which is co-located with Airservices Australia's Air Traffic Services Unit at Sydney airport;
· each of the Bureau's capital city Regional Forecasting Centres; and
· a number of other Meteorological Offices including Townsville, Cairns and Canberra.
During 1999-2000, Aviation Weather Services included an extensive range of forecast products, weather information, warnings and briefing to serve the need of more than 2450 individual operators. Statistics on the volume of output services can be found in Table 15.
Of the Bureau's aviation products, the Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) continued to be the most frequently distributed. During 1999-2000, TAF were issued routinely for some 260 locations throughout the country. TAF provide hour-by-hour forecasts of factors critical to aviation operations such as cloud amount and height, visibility, turbulence, precipitation, wind speed and direction and temperatures and pressure. The Bureau also provided information on observed aerodrome conditions and continued to enhance its aviation observation network during 1999-2000 through the ongoing installation of advanced instrumentation such as visibility and cloud height sensors.
Fog and low cloud are two weather phenomena critical to aviation operations. During 1999-2000, the Bureau commenced a research program focussed on increasing knowledge andforecasting skill of these phenomena.
As part of a continuous improvement program and in response to user needs, a number of Operational Improvement Program (OIP) workshops, focussing on service requirements of users, were run this year. The OIP paid particular attention to the requirements of weather information in support of air traffic management, with workshops in Melbourne, Brisbane, and Sydney bringing together management and staff from Airservices Australia and the Bureau to discuss these requirements.
Work continued on the implementation of a TAF verification/improvement system, designed to monitor and provide feedback on both individual and office performance in terms of the impact of TAF on aviation operations. This system allows a range of parameters to be verified and provides additional useful measures of aviation weather forecast performance in terms of the requirements placed on aircraft to carry extra fuel. Where weather conditions are forecast to fall below a set of minimum conditions specified for each aerodrome, aircraft are required to carry sufficient fuel to reach an alternate airport. For safety reasons, when the forecast indicates a 50 per cent or greater likelihood of the adverse conditions occurring, aircraft must carry the additional fuel. The quality measure used to monitor performance in this area is the percentage of aviation forecasts correctly identifying conditions requiring the carriage of additional fuel. Targets for 1999-200 were set at: 35 per cent of forecasts indicating a requirement for additional fuel are correct; and 99 per cent of forecasts indicating no requirement for additional fuel are correct.
The high target value (99 per cent) for the percentage of correct forecasts of conditions above the alternate minima is a reflection of the climatological predominance in Australia of weather suitable for aircraft landing. A performance level of 99.2 per cent was achieved for 1999-2000.
The theoretical upper limit on the target value for the percentage of correct forecasts for conditions below the alternate minima is 50 per cent as, whenever the probability of forecast conditions below the alternate minima is assessed as 50 per cent or more, those conditions are to be forecast as though the probability is 100 per cent. Consequently, perfect skill isdemonstrated whenever the performance measure is 50 per cent or more. The target at 35 per cent reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting critical weather. A performance level of 27 per cent was achieved over the past year indicating significant potential for future improvement. The new verification scheme will allow the development of time series to monitor performance trends.
Top of PageDefence Weather Services are provided to enhance the operations of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) through the provision of accurate, timely and relevant meteorological information. Services include forecasts, the provision of meteorological observations and climatological data, meteorological training and professional advice to assist military decision-making processes. Support for ADF exercises is an important part of the service role.
Following the recommendations of a review of meteorological services required by the ADF, which was undertaken by the ADF in 1997, the Defence Weather Service has gone through a period of significant restructure. Previously, the Service was concerned primarily with the safety and navigation of military aircraft. Now, while maintaining this core role, it is evolving into a more comprehensive weather service. Central to the concept is the Defence Meteorological Support Unit (DMSU), established to provide a 24-hour point of contact and coordination for all ADF users, and located in Darwin to meet the requirement for meteorological expertise in the strategically important areas of tropical Australia, South-East Asia and the South-West Pacific. The quality and breadth of the service provided to ADF operations in East Timor demonstrated the soundness of the adopted approach.
The DMSU complements and supports Defence Weather Services Offices located at RAAF bases at Amberley, East Sale, Tindal, Pearce and Williamtown, at the Army Aviation Centre at Oakey, and Defence-attributed staff at the Townsville and Canberra Meteorological Offices. These offices provide localised specialist meteorological services to support military aviation. The Weather Service Offices (WSOs) at RAAF Bases Richmond and Edinburghwere closed at the end of 1999 in accordance with Review recommendations. The Review judged that services required at these bases could be provided effectively remotely.
A Joint ADF/Bureau Defence Weather Services Working Group comprising representatives of RAAF, Army and Navy has also been established, initially to provide advice on the implementation of Review recommendations and, in the future, to monitor and review the ongoing operations of the Defence Weather Service including the development of appropriate service level agreements and performance measures and to report back to the ADF on performance outcomes. In addition, a Facilities Sub-Group meets six-monthly to review issues relating to the meteorological facilities on ADF establishments.
A dramatic example of the impact of meteorological products and services on ADF operations was evidenced during the year under the operations of the International Force - East Timor (INTERFET). Prior to deployment of ADF troops, a comprehensive climatology of the region was prepared, which played a pivotal role in the early planning of the mission. An aviation weather service program developed specifically for East Timor was instrumental in reducing fuel-loading requirements for transport aircraft, thereby significantly increasing their load-carrying capacity. Throughout the operation, forecasts and climatological advice were provided for units and headquarters established in various regions within East Timor. These services have continued beyond the withdrawal of INTERFET, for the operation of the United Nations Transitional Authority for East Timor (UNTAET).
In order to effectively disseminate tailored weather products to ADF users across Australia and overseas, particular attention was paid during the year to developing Internet technologies. In 1999-2000, the DMSU provided a range of meteorological material, including text and imagery through restricted pages on the Bureau's World Wide Web site and directly into Defence internal networks. Usage of the `ADF Weather Pages' on the Bureau Web site tripled over the course of the year.
Observing systems in support of Defence Weather Services were further expanded and automated during the year. Automatic weather stations (AWS) have now been installed at most military airfields and some ranges and training areas, providing data on wind,temperature, humidity and rainfall. At major military airfields additional sensors were installed to provide information automatically on visibility, amount of cloud and the height of the cloud base. Automated text-to-voice conversion allows these and other weather data to be broadcast to aircraft in flight.
In addition to AWS at airfields, the Bureau has developed deployable AWS, specifically designed to be located at strategic sites during ADF exercises and operations. The value of these was demonstrated when deployed at three aerodromes in East Timor to facilitate the provision of forecasts for military aviation.
A deployable automatic weather station was sited at Dili airport, East Timor, to facilitate provision of forecasts for the operations of the International Force - East Timor (INTERFET) and of the United Nations Transitional Authority for East Timor (UNTAET).
The incremental cost of providing the Defence Weather Service to meet ADF requirements is recovered from the Department of Defence. At the beginning of each financial year, a description of the service is provided to the Department of Defence detailing elements of the service, an estimate of the total cost and a breakdown of the cost by base and by activity. In 1999-2000, $3.4m was recovered in respect of staff, equipment, communications and overheads associated with the provision of the service.
Top of PageSpecial Weather Services are provided to meet the needs of the general public, industry and specific clients for weather services and information beyond those available as part of the basic service provided via the mass media and the open Internet. Costs for the provision of Special Weather Services are recovered on an incremental or commercial basis, as appropriate.
There are four broad categories of weather service users who need more detailed information and/or enhanced products from the Bureau than are available from the basic service: (a)private sector meteorological service providers (including some media); (b) major primary industry user groups and individual primary producers; (c) other people, organisations and sectors involved in weather sensitive businesses (e.g. tourism); and (d) members of the public who have a special interest in the weather.
Special Weather Services include access to the Bureau's data and products via facsimile (Weather by Fax, Direct Fax), the Internet (Registered User services), telephone (Weathercall, Dial-it) or direct connection to major Bureau systems (Computer Message Switching System (CMSS), Digital Facsimile (Difacs), Radar Picture Display (Rapic)). The variety of access mechanisms allows users engaged in a wide range of activities to adapt their decision-making in real-time in the light of information about current or expected meteorological conditions.
Special forecasting services are also provided in the public interest for purposes such as major sporting events, and customised meteorological services are provided at commercial rates in competition with the private meteorological sector.
During 1999-2000, there were 1,129,692 calls to the Bureau's Weather By Fax service. Calls to the service are shown on a monthly basis in Figure 37. The number of calls to this service was subject to a number of significant influences. Firstly, use of the service fluctuates depending on the prevailing weather. Winter 1999 saw a relative low rate of usage of the service, being lower than during winter 1998 and similar to winter 1997, consistent with the overall occurrence of significant weather events in those years. In contrast, during the early months of 2000, there was a number of significant tropical cyclone events which elevated the usage rate. Secondly, there has been a gradual downward trend in usage as the community gains access to similar information from the Bureau's Web site. Further influences this year, which resulted in reduced usage of the service, were the significant disruptions which occurred following the cessation by Telstra of its Infofax service and migration of the Weather by Fax service to a new service provider.
Figure 37. The number of calls received by the Bureau's Weather by Fax service on a monthly basis since January 1995.
Internet-based Registered User services again received significant use during 1999-2000. To some extent, these services have replaced the use of dedicated-line access to Bureau systems such as CMSS, Rapic and Difacs, since the Internet delivery formats are more amenable to generalised use.
The Bureau's Weathercall service encompasses a wide range of telephone weather services operating on the 1900 number range. The number of calls to the service is shown on a monthly basis in Figure 38. In 1999-2000, after some years of using both Telstra and Optus 1900 services, the Bureau's service was moved entirely to Telstra numbers following the decision by Optus to cease their involvement with 1900 services.
Figure 38. The number of calls per month since January 1995 to the Bureau's 1900 telephone Weathercall service.
The number of calls since January 1995 to the 1196 Dial-it service, which is operated by Telstra and provides Bureau weather information, is shown on a monthly basis in Figure 39. The services are at the cost of a local call and currently cover public weather forecasts for all State and Territory capital cities and some regional centres in Queensland. Concern continued to be expressed by the public at the lack of local-call access to boating weather forecasts in particular, since the cessation of Telstra support for other Dial-It services in April 1998. Discussions with Telstra were renewed late in the year on plans for improving the 1196 service.
Figure 39. The number of calls per month since January 1995 to the Bureau's Dial-It telephone weather service.
The regional Queensland 1196 services were the focus of a trial of the Bureau's Text-to-Speech (TTS) system beginning in early 2000. The TTS system automatically converts selected Bureau forecasts to files containing voice recordings, compiled from a library of elements recorded by a human voice. The trial was considered successful and plans were commenced to extend the use of TTS to other telephone weather services. Benefits are expected to flow to both the Weathercall and Dial-It services from this initiative in terms ofefficiency of production and ease of administration, as well as the maintenance of a consistent quality level. The introduction of TTS for the Weathercall services will necessitate significant changes to the technical system arrangements with the service provider, and the Bureau has almost completed tender specifications in preparation for re-issuing a tender for these services.
The percentage downtime for automated access systems, specifically the Australian Meteorological Data and Information Service System (AMDISS), during 1999-2000 was 0.18 per cent. Planned downtime for system maintenance was 0.096 per cent which is just under the target of 0.1 per cent for the year. Unplanned downtime was largely associated with Internet access problems of which 0.03 per cent was attributable to faults in Telstra systems.
As a consequence of greatly increased demand for external access to Bureau information and products, especially by electronic means, and the growth in the private meteorological sector in Australia, new challenges for the delivery of Special Weather Services have come to light over the last few years. As a result, gradual changes in the role and operation of the service continued during this financial year. Significant progress was made in the revision and development of data access policies and internal procedures, as well as lesser progress on rationalising and reorganising the volume, frequency and presentation of weather information available from different Bureau service outlets throughout Australia. Further improvement is expected over the next 12 months. In particular, a major project to integrate and streamline administrative tasks and assist in providing management information for the program, in conjunction with other cost-recovery meteorological services of the Bureau, was commenced in early 2000.
The range and number of special weather services provided on a commercial basis through the Special Services Unit (SSU) increased during 1999-2000 and all quality and quantity targets were met or exceeded. The major special weather service activities of the SSU during 1999-2000 included:
· the provision of specialised services to the offshore oil and gas mining industries primarily in Western Australia and Queensland, where the SSU services more than 20 clients under contract with tailored forecasts and tropical cyclone advice. Theseservices are valued highly by clients with 97 per cent renewing contracts against a target renewal rate of 90 per cent;
· the provision of a range of services tailored to the specific requirements of 21 companies in the competitive energy market, mainly in the eastern states. All of the 1998-99 services were renewed this year indicating the value placed on accurate and detailed forecasts for the energy sector;
· the provision of specialised services to more than 20 clients in the mining and manufacturing sector;
· the SSU's Farmweather, which continued to provide a valuable service tailored for farmers and agribusiness with more than 330,000 calls for the year. Call rates for this fax-based service fell by about five per cent, most likely due to the growth in usage of the Internet. In December, the service was transferred to a new service provider, Informatel Pty Ltd, after Telstra decided to exit the polling fax business. A performance indicator for measuring the level of service for Farmweather is the regularity of its availability to the users. The target for the year was 90 per cent of forecasts uploaded to the service provider on time. Over a sample period of three months, 95 per cent of Farmweather products were available on time;
· an expanded range of packaged data services for information service providers in the Internet and telephone information sectors. The SSU supplies tailored data services for Web pages, Short Message Service phone services and Wireless Application Protocol systems. The sector grew by 75 per cent this year;
· management on behalf of the Bureau of the Weathercall 1900 and 1300 national telephone weather services; and
· several new domestic market areas were developed, including services to the construction, water management, motor transport and retail industries, underlying the increasing diversity of SSU activities.
2 Includes adjustments made to initial output allocations (as published in the Portfolio Budget Statement 1999-2000) in the light of further analysis of the overall resource situation following the Budget.
a Targets published in the 1999-2000 Environment and Heritage Portfolio Budget Statement (PBS).
TBA - targets for these measures were not established at the time the PBS was published.
b Targets and actuals for these measures of the Special Services Unit (SSU) relate to all SSU activities reported under Weather Services and Consultative Services.
