Weather Services Performance
Melbourne 2004

Introduction

The information presented here comes from a series of seasonal telephone surveys of people living in metropolitan Melbourne, conducted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (hereafter the 'Bureau'). The surveys investigate what weather information is used by members of the public to assist them in making weather-dependent decisions, and how this information is accessed.

For most of us, weather conditions now and in the future are likely to have some effect on our daily activities. It is likely that on more than one occasion during a typical day you make a decision and use information about the weather to help make your decision. You would perhaps then agree that it is important that the weather information that you use is available in a timely manner, easily accessible, accurate and useful.

It is important for the Bureau to have an understanding of how people access and use weather information and services, and to know what they think of the accuracy, timeliness and usefulness of weather services. This information assists the Bureau with future planning of products and services, and is also used in regular reports to the Australian government.

The information presented here is mostly derived from the two surveys conducted in Melbourne during 2004 (summer and winter), however at times comparisons are made with previous surveys to reveal trends.

Similar reports for each of the capital cities, and more information about the surveys, can be found at the Weather Services Performance page.

What do you use weather information for?

Survey respondents were asked if they have made decisions based on or influenced by the weather. Most respondents indicated that they had made decisions in relation to What to Wear.

Other weather-dependent decisions made by people in Melbourne included work around the house, what to do on the weekend, washing clothes, outdoor entertaining, outdoor sport or exercise, an outing or shopping, protecting life and/or property, water sports, mode of transport, watching sport outdoors, fishing, boating , and ability to work . Figure 1 illustrates these results. Click here for a larger image.

What weather information do you access?

When asked the source of weather information used when making weather-dependent decisions, a majority of Melbourne residents said that they looked out of the window and up at the sky. Seems there is a weather forecaster in all of us! When looking for official sources of information, however, they referred to forecasts, reports of current conditions (e.g. current temperature) and weather warnings when making weather-dependent decisions.

Information about existing or likely rain and maximum temperature were the most commonly accessed weather parameters. As may be imagined, maximum temperature information was accessed by more people during summer. This would appear to be intuitive, except that there will be some dependence on the weather being experienced (for example occurrence of drought conditions or a prolonged cold spell).

Figure 2 shows a comparison of weather parameters of interest to Melbourne respondents during summer and winter in 2004. Click here for a larger image.

How do you access weather information?

There are a number of ways to access weather information. People in Melbourne are similar to others across the country in that they mostly use free-to-air television to access weather information. Other means of access include newspapers, non-ABC radio, ABC radio, the Bureau of Meteorology website, other websites, the Bureau's telephone weather service (a range of 1900 and 1300 products), the Bureau's Weather by Fax Service, and also via SMS through mobile phone service providers. Figure 3 shows the ways in which people in Melbourne accessed weather information during 2004, with summer and winter results compared. Click here for a larger image.

Historically, the Bureau's services revolved around the specific requirements of the free-to-air television operators and radio stations. Main issue times for forecasts were timed accordingly - in the early morning, to be available for morning news bulletins, and in the mid to late afternoon to catch the evening news. Updates may occur at any time during the day and historically were mostly communicated personally to the various media (TV, radio and newspaper) outlets. The advent of new technologies - specifically the Internet -  has meant that weather information is now available at all hours of the day. The popularity of the Internet in the community is reflected in a perceptible increase in the number of "hits" the Bureau's website receives.

When and how often do you access weather information?

Survey respondents were asked how frequently they accessed weather information when they were making a weather-dependent decision. A flow on effect of the rise in Internet use is the requirement that current weather information (observations and forecasts) be updated when necessary and available at all times. The Internet also allows multiple accesses to the same or updated information.

Most people indicated that they accessed the information either once daily or more than once per day, with people accessing weather information more frequently in summer. Others indicated that they only accessed weather information when they were planning something that depended on the weather, or if the weather was either currently, or expected to be, extreme or unusual. 

Most people in Melbourne indicated that weather information was regularly available in time for them to make their weather-dependent decisions, and that weather information regularly met their requirements. Figure 4 shows the distribution of the time of day that weather information was accessed. It shows a clear peak in the early evening, coincident with after work access via the traditional television and radio news bulletins. Click here for a larger image.

A significant number of people access information for the first time between 12 and 24 hours ahead of when they are interested in the forecast conditions, and may check the information between 2 and 4 times during this period. In the winter 2004 survey, most people indicated that they preferred the information to be available 5 - 7 days ahead. 

What do you think of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology?

A large proportion of the Melbourne populace indicated that they were either satisfied or very satisfied with the service they received from the Bureau through the different sources they used during 2004. This level of satisfaction with the Bureau has stayed relatively constant for the past nine surveys, varying between 80% and 96% (See Figure 5). Click here for a larger image.

The majority of Melbourne people surveyed also mentioned that the information they accessed when making weather dependent decisions regularly met their requirements.

What do you think of the accuracy of weather forecasts?

Weather forecasts contain information on the expected future conditions of a variety of weather parameters, such as temperature and wind. This information may be expressed using quantitative descriptors (numbers) and qualitative descriptors (words).

Residents in Melbourne indicated that the accuracy of Bureau forecasts was either very important or moderately important to them.

Public perception of the accuracy of forecasts of five weather elements - rain, maximum and minimum temperatures, cloud/sunshine and wind - has been measured in all the public weather surveys that the Bureau has conducted. The results for the past nine surveys are compared in Figure 6. Click here for a larger image.

As illustrated in Figure 6, Melbourne people indicated that they perceived the forecasts for all elements except wind to be more accurate in winter 2004 than during summer 2004.  

It is likely that a combination of factors give rise to the fluctuations in perception of accuracy over the year. These factors may be different depending on which parameter you are referring to. It is likely, for example, that people are more concerned - and therefore more observant - of weather during winter because of the increased likelihood that weather will affect their activities. They may therefore be more likely to be critical of forecast errors if the weather adversely affects their activity.

Public perception of the accuracy of 24 hour and 2-4 days forecasts, as well as forecasts overall, has also been measured. The results for the past nine surveys are compared in Figure 7. Click here for a larger image.

Perception of the 24 hour forecast accuracy has been consistently higher than that of the 2-4 day forecasts, as expected given that the skill of forecasting decreases the further into the future we are trying to predict. Both types of forecast however displayed the same seasonal pattern as most forecast elements. 

More than half of the Melbourne survey respondents believed that weather forecasts and warnings had become more accurate over the past few years, whilst many others believed that there has been no change in accuracy. 

The majority of Melbourne people surveyed also mentioned that the information they accessed when making weather dependent decisions regularly met their requirements.

Tell us what you think!

The Bureau invites feedback on its Service. Maybe you agree or disagree with the results of the surveys presented here, or maybe you have a different insight into how you think the Bureau is performing relative to you own circumstances or past experience.

Drop us a line at our feedback page. While we may not be able to respond to you individually, we will collate feedback and present it at regular intervals.