The long El Niño - 1991 through 1995

El Niño-associated drought typically lasts about one year, and breaks down in late summer or autumn. On rare occasions, El Niño-like conditions persist through a second year and, as in the years 1911-15 and 1939-41, even longer. The El Niño event of the 1990s lasted longer than any previous event in the instrumental record; though “proxy” climatic indicators - such as tree rings and coral cores - suggest that events of similar length may have occurred in the past. This extended El Niño was accompanied by intense, persistent drought over central and southern Queensland, and northern New South Wales, extending at times to other parts of the Australian continent.

By late 1991/92, very dry conditions were developing over parts of eastern Australia, though the southeast had some very wet spells and flooding in the winter of 1991 and summer of 1991/92. The 1991/92 Wet season failed over most of northern Australia -it was the driest Wet season on record in the Northern Territory. Generally dry conditions persisted through the first half of 1992. But between late 1992 and late 1993, El Niño conditions waned, waxed, then waned again, with heavy rain and flooding over southeastern Australia during the two waning phases. Over Queensland, however, the drought continued unabated through this period, and extended south over eastern New South Wales, setting the scene for disastrous bushfires in January 1994.

Good rains fell in the drought-hit areas of Queensland in February and March 1994, but from mid-March dry conditions set in again as another significant El Niño phase developed. This time the whole country was affected: in many parts rainfall deficiencies to December rivalled, and in some cases exceeded, those of 1982-83. Winter crops were badly hit, with yields reduced by almost 50 percent relative to the previous year. Overall, the 1994/95 drought was estimated to have cut agricultural production by nearly $2 billion (or 8 percent) compared with 10 percent in the ruinous 1982/83 drought. For many struggling farming enterprises in Queensland, this extension of the drought was the last straw: livelihoods crumbled, and many thousands of stock died or were mercifully shot.

Drought at Mt Augustus, about 300km north-northwest of Meekatharra, Western Australia December 1994 - stock losses are a grim reality during drought episodes (photo courtesy of the West Australian).

As El Niño declined in 1995, the drought eased. Heavy rains in late autumn and early winter ended the drought in the southern states, but it was not until almost the end of 1995 that drought-afflicted areas of Queensland finally received relief. Good general rains fell in 1996, easing the situation until the onset of the next El Niño in 1997.