Wet years in a dry decade

Through the first half of this century, farm products dominated Australian exports. The 75 percent contribution to total exports in World War I declined to 65-70percent in World War II, then rose to 84 percent in 1947-48. Australia's prosperity clearly depended very much on its flocks and crops, and thus on the vagaries of the weather.

The decade from the late 1930s to the late 1940s was one of recurrent drought. To make matters worse, this dry era coincided with a time when Australian resources were stretched to the limit to provide personnel, materials and food for the World War II effort. Fortunately, as in World War I, good rains fell in 1941, 1942 and 1947, relieving what would otherwise have been a very bleak picture.

Following the severe El Niño drought of 1940, close to average rain fell in Victoria, southern New South Wales, and the southern wheatbelt of Western Australia in the 1941 growing season.. This helped the national wheat crop recover to 4.5 million tonnes, up from 2.2 million tonnes in 1940. An even better season (1942) followed over the eastern states and South Australia, as good general rains produced bountiful crops, totalling 4.2 million tonnes. But for a poor season in Western Australia (at that time producing 15-20 percent of the national crop) the total would have been better still.

This was to be the last good crop for several years as droughts and crop failures again became endemic. 1943 and 1944 were poor years, and 1945 was also a lacklustre year, despite NSW having its best crop for six years, and Western Australia its best since 1929.

In 1946 the value of the Western Australian crop improved further (despite low yields per hectare), and the Victorian crop returned to 1941 levels. But this time, a poor harvest in NSW lowered the national total. However in 1947 there were bumper crops in all States, and a national total of almost six million tonnes.

Despite disruptions to overseas trade, Australian exports had remained fairly constant in the early war years; but between 1942 and 1945 the value of imports far outweighed exports. The good seasons of 1946, and especially 1947, thus proved very timely, allowing a good recovery from the “lean years”. Agricultural exports increased from $50 million in 1946-47 to $90 million in the bumper 1947-48 season. In the pastoral sector, too, favourable weather, industry improvements in 1946, and the end of the war, combined to boost exports substantially after 1945-46.