Northern Territory residents are reminded it's time to prepare for the cyclone season once again, with average to above average cyclone activity predicted for the coming season.
Bureau of Meteorology Northern Territory Acting Regional Director, Todd Smith said sea surface temperatures are currently close to average in the waters surrounding the NT, and are expected to continue to warm toward the end of the year.
"Ocean conditions currently indicate weak La Nina conditions, which are expected to persist into next year," said Mr Smith.
"During La Nina years we tend to see an earlier start to the season, and more cyclones than normal across the Australian Region -but every La Nina is different. The average for the Northern Territory is two to three per season, with one or two affecting coastal areas. This is what we need to be prepared for."
"Although a La Nina would suggest generally more cyclone activity, cyclones are inherently unpredictable and Tropical Cyclone Carlos earlier this year was a good example of that," said Mr Smith, "Carlos formed right over the top of Darwin in mid-February, causing widespread flooding and downing trees across Darwin. As it moved inland, it triggered a major flood of the Daly River affecting the community of Nauiyu."
Northern Territory Emergency Services Director, Peter Davies, said regardless of whether the outlook points toward a more or less active cyclone season, it's still the cyclone season.
"Residents of coastal and island communities need to make the most of the last two weeks of October to clean up their yards, refresh their emergency kit and consider what they will do if and when a cyclone watch or warning is declared. It is essential that people in areas affected by cyclones plan ahead and decide whether they will evacuate to a safer area, or what their options are to shelter from dangerous weather conditions," said Mr Davies.
The cyclone season runs from November to April. The highest number of cyclones observed in the Northern Territory region during any season is five, with the average being two to three. During La Nina years cyclone activity is often concentrated in the Arafura and Timor Seas, rather than in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Media contacts:
Todd Smith, BOM, Northern Territory, Acting Regional Director -- (08) 8920 3813, 0459 816 152
Peter Davies, Northern Territory Emergency Services, Director -- (08) 8920 3830
