Fire Weather Forecast Summary for Northern Territory

IDD10721

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Fire Weather Forecast for the Northern Territory
for Saturday 23 March 2019

Issued at 4:00 pm CST on Friday 22 March 2019.

Forecasts are issued regularly: Please ensure you have the latest version.

Summary

Fire Area Area GFDI Area Rating Percent Coverage Fire Weather Warning
Darwin and Adelaide River 1 Low-Moderate 100  
Northern Fire Protection Area 1 Low-Moderate 100  
Daly South 1 Low-Moderate 100  
Tiwi 0 Low-Moderate 100  
Arnhem West 2 Low-Moderate 100  
Arnhem East 2 Low-Moderate 100  
Katherine Fire Protection Area 2 Low-Moderate 100  
Carpentaria West 5 Low-Moderate 100  
Carpentaria East 11 Low-Moderate 100  
Gregory North West 1 Low-Moderate 100  
Gregory South East 11 Low-Moderate 100  
Barkly North 32 Very High 72  
Barkly South 42 Very High 89  
Alice Springs Fire Protection Area 25 Very High 19  
Simpson West 24 High 80  
Simpson East 22 High 86  
Lasseter West 15 High 65  
Lasseter East 14 High 56  
Tanami North 23 High 84  
Tanami South 30 Very High 27  

* Ratings are provided in conjunction with Fire Authorities.

* Area FDI is the representative peak FDI in the area for that fuel type. 10% of the Fire area has a max FDI higher than this value.

* Percent Coverage is the percentage of the Fire Area that falls in or above the Area Rating threshold.

Saturday

Damaging to very destructive winds and heavy rainfall is expected over parts of the southeastern Arnhem and Carpentaria Districts as Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor makes landfall. Moderate west to northwest winds, tending east to southeast south of Elliot. A moderate to fresh southeasterly change in the southwest Lasseter late in the day. Very hot across the Tanami, Lasseter and Simpson Districts. Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor is expected to make landfall over the Carpentaria District during the day, resulting in a high to very high chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Top End and widespread rain over the eastern Carpentaria District. A slight to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gregory, western Carpentaria and northern Barkly Districts. Mostly sunny elsewhere.

District Weather Elements
for Saturday 23 March 2019

Issued at 4:00 pm CST on Friday 22 March 2019.

Fire Area TAL cHaines Prob Rain >5mm 1500m Wind (km/h) 3000m Wind (km/h) Mix Height (m)
Darwin and Adelaide River 1 6 50 WSW 30 SSW 15 1600
Northern Fire Protection Area 1 6 45 WSW 25 S 20 1700
Daly South 1 7 30 WSW 15 S 25 2400
Tiwi 1 6 55 WSW 35 SSW 15 1500
Arnhem West 1 6 40 W 30 SW 30 2000
Arnhem East 2 5 35 W 40 WSW 40 2000
Katherine Fire Protection Area 1 7 35 SW 20 SSW 35 2000
Carpentaria West 1 8 25 SSW 30 S 40 2500
Carpentaria East 2 6 70 SSW 95 SSW 85 600
Gregory North West 1 9 15 SSE 10 SSE 20 3100
Gregory South East 1 11 5 SSE 15 SSE 20 3500
Barkly North 2 8 35 SE 60 SE 60 2100
Barkly South 1 9 5 E 40 E 40 3300
Alice Springs Fire Protection Area 0 11 0 ENE 25 E 20 3900
Simpson West 0 11 < 5 E 25 E 20 3800
Simpson East 0 10 < 5 ENE 30 ENE 25 3500
Lasseter West 0 12 0 NNE 35 NNE 20 4200
Lasseter East 0 12 0 ENE 25 ENE 15 4100
Tanami North 0 12 < 5 ESE 20 SE 20 3900
Tanami South 0 12 0 E 25 ESE 20 3900

Detailed Area Forecast
for Saturday 23 March 2019

Issued at 4:00 pm CST on Friday 22 March 2019.

  Fuel Type Area FDI GFDI > 35 GFDI > 50 GFDI > 75 GFDI > 100
% Start Hours % Start Hours % Start Hours % Start Hours
Darwin and Adelaide River G 1 0     0     0     0    
Northern Fire Protection Area G 1 0     0     0     0    
Daly South G 1 0     0     0     0    
Tiwi G 0 0     0     0     0    
Arnhem West G 2 0     0     0     0    
Arnhem East G 2 0     0     0     0    
Katherine Fire Protection Area G 2 0     0     0     0    
Carpentaria West G 5 0     0     0     0    
Carpentaria East G 11 < 1 NA NA 0     0     0    
  Fuel Type Area FDI GFDI > 35 GFDI > 50 GFDI > 75 GFDI > 100
% Start Hours % Start Hours % Start Hours % Start Hours
Gregory North West G 1 0     0     0     0    
Gregory South East G 11 0     0     0     0    
Barkly North G 32 1 14 1 < 1 NA NA 0     0    
Barkly South G 42 37 14 6 0     0     0    
Alice Springs Fire Protection Area G 25 0     0     0     0    
Simpson West G 24 0     0     0     0    
Simpson East G 22 0     0     0     0    
Lasseter West G 15 0     0     0     0    
Lasseter East G 14 0     0     0     0    
Tanami North G 23 0     0     0     0    
Tanami South G 30 1 15 1 0     0     0    

Location Forecasts at Time of Maximum Fire Danger
for Saturday 23 March 2019

Issued at 4:00 pm CST on Friday 22 March 2019.

  Regions Time Temp RH Wind (km/h) Max T Cur % Fuel
(t/Ha)		 Max FDI
Fuel		 Wind Change (km/h) FDI
Dir Speed Gust Dir Speed Gust Time
Darwin and Adelaide River Batchelor 15 33 59 WSW 25 40 34 45 12.0 G         0
Darwin Airport 15 33 67 WSW 30 45 34 50 9.0 G         1
Middle Point 15 34 60 WSW 25 40 35 50 11.0 G         1
Noonamah Airport 15 33 63 WSW 25 40 35 50 9.5 G         1
Northern Fire Protection Area Douglas River 15 35 56 WSW 30 50 35 50 6.0 G         1
Point Stuart 15 33 71 WSW 35 55 34 50 6.0 G         1
Daly South Bradshaw 15 39 38 SW 30 45 40 55 4.5 G         1
Wadeye 15 34 60 WSW 30 45 34 40 6.0 G         0
Tiwi Pirlangimpi 15 31 75 W 20 35 33 50 6.0 G         0
Arnhem West Central Arnhem Plateau 15 31 66 WSW 35 55 33 50 6.0 G         1
Jabiru Airport 15 34 63 W 30 50 34 50 6.0 G         0
Arnhem East Bulman 15 36 42 WSW 45 65 37 50 6.0 G         1
Nhulunbuy Airport 15 32 71 WNW 45 70 32 50 6.0 G         1
Katherine Fire Protection Area Katherine Airport 15 35 47 SW 35 55 36 55 6.0 G         1
Carpentaria West Daly Waters 12 35 34 SSW 45 75 36 50 6.0 G         2
Carpentaria East Borroloola 12 25 79 SW 95 135 25 50 6.0 G         4
  Regions Time Temp RH Wind (km/h) Max T Cur % Fuel
(t/Ha)		 Max FDI
Fuel		 Wind Change (km/h) FDI
Dir Speed Gust Dir Speed Gust Time
Gregory South East Delamere 15 39 26 SSW 40 60 39 65 4.0 G         5
Victoria River Downs 15 41 19 SSW 35 55 41 65 4.0 G         5
Barkly North Brunette Downs 15 29 55 SE 65 105 30 90 2.0 G         25
Barkly South Tennant Creek 15 37 25 SSE 50 85 37 100 2.0 G         38
Alice Springs Fire Protection Area Alice Springs Airport 17 38 15 ESE 30 45 39 100 3.0 G         28
Simpson West Jervois 15 40 16 E 35 55 40 100 1.5 G         18
Lasseter East Yulara Airport 10 37 13 NE 15 30 42 100 2.0 G         7
Tanami North Rabbit Flat 17 42 11 SSE 25 40 42 95 2.0 G         15
Tanami South Yuendumu 15 39 14 ESE 25 40 39 100 2.0 G         14

Note

Point locations are extracted from the forecast policy issued by the Bureau of Meteorology. They are designed to be representative of the area within the vicinity of the location but do not take into account local variations due to topography and elevation.