Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Tuesday 26 January 2021
for the period until midnight CST Friday 29 January 2021.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


At 9:30 am CST [10:00 am EST] on Tuesday 26 January, a developing tropical low (11U), 1000 hPa, was located over the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria, near 15.0S 140.1E, about 210 km north northeast of Mornington Island and about 400 km east southeast of Groote Eylandt. The tropical low is expected to become slow moving over the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria for several days with an increasing risk of forming into a tropical cyclone from Wednesday. The system is expected to cross the western Cape York Peninsula coast later this week. Please refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Advice for further details and updates.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Wednesday:
High
Thursday:
High
Friday:
High

Another tropical low (12U) may form near the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf by Wednesday then move southwestwards across the northern Kimberley from Thursday. This tropical low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region but heavy rain and strong, squally winds may develop about the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and adjacent areas of the western Daly and northern Kimberley Districts during the next few days.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Wednesday:
Very Low
Thursday:
Very Low
Friday:
Very Low

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/