Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 5:01 pm CST on Thursday 27 April 2017
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 30 April 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

At 3:30pm CST [2:00pm WST] Thursday 27 April, Tropical Cyclone Frances was located in the Timor Sea, near 10.1S 129.4E 180km northwest of Pirlangimpi and moving southwest at 17 kilometres per hour. Refer to the latest tropical cyclone warnings for further details [www.bom.gov.au/cyclone]. Tropical cyclone Frances is expected to move from the Northern Region to the Western Region during Saturday.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:
High.
Saturday:
Moderate.
Sunday:
Low.

Potential Cyclones:


There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop during the next three days.


Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:
Very Low.
Saturday:
Very Low.
Sunday:
Very Low.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/