Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 23 January 2017
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 26 January 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low, 1005 hPa, was located over the western Gulf of Carpentaria near Groote Eylandt at 12:30pm CST on 23 January. The low is expected to track westwards across the base of the Top End during Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing heavy rainfall along its path. By Thursday, the tropical low is expected to be moving further westwards across the Kimberley of Western Australia but there is a small chance the low may be located over the southern Timor Sea.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday:
Very Low.
Wednesday:
Very Low.
Thursday:
Low.

In the longer term, the tropical low is expected to be continue moving westwards across the Kimberley and into the Western Region.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/