Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:22 pm CST on Thursday 13 December 2018
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 16 December 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

At 12:30pm ACST Thursday 13 December, Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen was located near 15.2S 135.9E 75 kilometres southeast of Port Roper and was slow moving.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen is still located on the coast in the southwestern Gulf of Carpentaria, between Port Roper and Port McArthur. It's position is near stationary, but it is forecast to start moving eastwards back towards the Queensland coast during Thursday afternoon. As it tracks east, it is likely to pass close to Port McArthur. Severe TC Owen may reach Category 4 intensity late Thursday.

A coastal crossing along the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Karumba to Pormpuraaw later Friday is likely, and there is a chance it crosses the coast as a category 4 system. Owen will then weaken as it moves southeastwards inland over the southern Cape York Peninsula. Refer to the latest tropical cyclone warnings for further details [www.bom.gov.au].



Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Friday:
High.
Saturday:
Low.
Sunday:
Very Low.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/