Tropical Cyclone Outlook

IDD10610

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:26 pm CST on Monday 20 February 2017
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 23 February 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

At 12:30pm CST Monday 20th February, Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located in the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria as a category 1 cyclone, near 15.5S 137.2E, 72 kilometres northeast of Port McArthur and 176 kilometres southeast of Groote Eylandt, moving south at 7 kilometres per hour. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to continue moving south towards the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, where it is likely to remain over water until Tuesday. Later on Tuesday it should be near the coast, and move northwest along the coast. Refer to the latest tropical cyclone warnings for further details [www.bom.gov.au/cyclone].

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday:
High
Wednesday:
Moderate.
Thursday:
Low.

Potential Cyclones:


There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to

develop during the next three days.


Likelihood of another tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Tuesday:
Very Low.
Wednesday:
Very Low.
Thursday:
Very Low.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:
less than 5%
Low:
5% to 20%
Moderate:
20 to 50%
High:
Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/