AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 4:54 pm AEST Tuesday 26 January 2021. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 3.


Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
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Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
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Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
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Past Track and Movement
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Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Winds
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Destructive Winds
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Gale Force Winds
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Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Wind Boundary
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Destructive Wind Boundary
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Gale Force Wind Boundary
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Most Likely Future Track
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Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
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The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Headline:

Developing tropical low is slowing down off the western Cape York Peninsula coast.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: Mornington Island to Aurukun including Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.1 degrees South, 140.5 degrees East , 225 kilometres northeast of Mornington Island and 140 kilometres west northwest of Kowanyama .
Movement: east southeast at 7 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is expected to remain slow moving off the western Cape York Peninsula coast and develop into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday or Thursday. The system should remain slow moving in the southeastern region of the Gulf of Carpentaria for several days, after which it may cross the western Cape York Peninsula coast.


Hazards:

HEAVY RAINFALL is forecast about western parts of Cape York Peninsula for the next several days with the potential for 150 to 200 millimetres per day for multiple days. The most likely areas to see these rainfall totals will be coastal parts between Weipa and Gilbert River Mouth.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected between the Torres Strait Islands and the Gilbert River Mouth during the next several days due to persistent monsoonal westerly flow and the developing tropical low. Tides rising above the normal high tide level are expected on this afternoon's high tide, becoming more likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these conditions.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop about coastal and island communities between Aurukun to Karumba and also Mornington Island late on Wednesday or on Thursday morning.


Recommended Action:

People between Aurukun and Karumba and on Mornington Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Details:
  Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 4 pm January 26 tropical low 15.1S 140.5E 55
+6hr 10 pm January 26 tropical low 15.2S 140.7E 85
+12hr 4 am January 27 tropical low 15.4S 140.7E 105
+18hr 10 am January 27 tropical low 15.5S 140.8E 120
+24hr 4 pm January 27 tropical low 15.5S 140.7E 135
+36hr 4 am January 28 1 15.5S 140.5E 160
+48hr 4 pm January 28 2 15.5S 140.5E 195
+60hr 4 am January 29 2 15.3S 140.5E 220
+72hr 4 pm January 29 2 14.8S 141.0E 245

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Tuesday