AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Tatiana

Issued at 10:53 pm AEST Friday 12 February 2016. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.


Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
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Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
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Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
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Past Track and Movement
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Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Winds
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Destructive Winds
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Strong Gale Force Winds
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Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Wind Boundary
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Destructive Wind Boundary
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Strong Gale Force Wind Boundary
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Most Likely Future Track
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Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
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The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Headline:

Tropical cyclone Tatiana should transition into a deep low during Saturday, and remain off the southeast coast.



Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Tatiana at 10:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 19.2 degrees South, 160.0 degrees East , 1060 kilometres east northeast of Yeppoon and 930 kilometres northeast of Sandy Cape .
Movement: south southeast at 18 kilometres per hour .

Tropical cyclone Tatiana should continue moving in a southerly direction overnight and tomorrow. During tomorrow unfavourable atmospheric conditions should weaken the cyclone and see it transition into a deep subtropical low pressure system.


Hazards:

Powerful surf along the coast from Sunday and into Monday in areas south of Sandy Cape, including the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast.


Recommended Action:

Details:
  Time (AEST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm February 12 2 19.2S 160.0E 55
+6hr 4 am February 13 2 20.2S 159.8E 80
+12hr 10 am February 13 1 21.1S 159.8E 100
+18hr 4 pm February 13 1 21.8S 159.9E 125
+24hr 10 pm February 13 1 22.9S 159.7E 145
+36hr 10 am February 14 tropical low 24.6S 159.0E 185
+48hr 10 pm February 14 tropical low 25.5S 158.9E 220
+60hr 10 am February 15 tropical low 25.6S 158.9E 255
+72hr 10 pm February 15 tropical low 24.7S 159.2E 290

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Saturday