IDV18500

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Fire Weather Forecast
for Sunday 22 November 2009

Issued at 4:34 pm EDT on Saturday 21 November 2009.

Forecasts are issued regularly: Please ensure you have the latest version.

Location	MaxT °C	DewP °C	RH %	Wind km/h			DF	CUR %	FFDI	GFDI	Wind Change
				Dir	Spd	Gust
Walpeup	23	7	35	SW	30	45	1	100	1	17
Swan Hill Airport	23	7	35	SW	35	45	1	100	1	23
Mallee	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 2500
	WIND (1000): SW  45						FDI above 35: NA
Horsham Airport	21	6	37	SW	30	40	1	100	1	15
Stawell	21	6	37	SW	30	45	1	90	1	11
Wimmera	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 2600
	WIND (1500): SW  45						FDI above 35: NA
Ballarat Airport	17	7	51	SW	35	50	1	30	0	0
Portland Airport	17	8	55	WSW	30	45	1	10	0	0
Hamilton Airport	18	7	48	SW	30	40	1	30	0	0
Mortlake	18	8	51	WSW	30	40	1	20	0	0
Western	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 2400
	WIND (1000): SW  45						FDI above 35: NA
Bendigo Airport	21	8	43	SW	30	45	1	90	1	10
Shepparton Airport	24	10	41	WSW	30	45	1	90	1	11
Northern Country	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 2400
	WIND (1000): WSW  40						FDI above 35: NA
Mangalore Airport	22	10	46	WSW	30	40	1	90	1	10
North Central	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 2300
	WIND (1500): WSW  45						FDI above 35: NA
Geelong Airport	18	10	59	WSW	35	50	1	70	0	2
Coldstream	19	11	59	WSW	30	40	1	30	0	0
Tullamarine	19	9	52	SW	35	50	1	70	0	2
Dunns Hill	14	9	71	WSW	35	50	1	20	0	0
Pound Creek	17	11	67	WSW	30	40	1	10	0	0
Central	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 2000
	WIND (1000): SW  45						FDI above 35: NA
Albury-Wodonga	25	15	53	NW	30	45	1	80	0	5	WSW 30 13-17
Wangaratta Airport	24	13	50	W	35	50	1	60	1	1	WSW 35 11-15
Hunters Hill	21	14	64	NW	35	50	1	50	0	0	WNW 40 14-18
Northeast	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 2200
	WIND (1500): NW  60						FDI above 35: NA
Latrobe Valley	20	11	56	W	30	40	2	50	1	0
East Sale Airport	22	12	53	WNW	35	50	2	70	1	2
Mount Moornapa	21	11	52	W	35	50	1	70	0	2
West and South Gippsland	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 1900
	WIND (1000): WNW  70						FDI above 35: NA
Orbost	26	14	47	NW	30	40	2	50	2	0	WSW 35 09-13
Gelantipy	21	13	60	NW	30	40	2	40	1	0	W 40 11-15
East Gippsland	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 1700
	WIND (1500): NW  80						FDI above 35: NA
Falls Creek	13	10	81	N	55	80	0	40	0	0	W 30 13-17
Alpine Areas	LAL: 0		RAIN: YES				MIX (M): 2400
	WIND (2000): NNW  70						FDI above 35: NA
Interstate:
Mount Gambier	19	7	45	SW	30
Naracoorte	20	7	42	SW	25
Renmark	23	8	38	SW	25
Tumbarumba	24	13	50	WNW	30	50
Deniliquin	24	9	38	WNW	30	50
Bombala	28	13	39	WNW	50	75

Notes:

MaxT = Maximum Temperature

RH = Relative Humidity

Dew Pt = Dew Point Temperature

DF = Drought Factor

CUR = Curing

FFDI is the Forest Fire Danger Index

GFDI is the Grassland Fire Danger Index

LAL = Lightning Activity Level: (0) = nil thunderstorms, (1) = isolated thunderstorms, (2) = scattered thunderstorms, (3) = widespread thunderstorms

RAIN: NO = less than 5mm, YES = greater than 5mm over district for day.

MIX (above sea level) = Mixing Depth

WIND (above sea level) = Upper Wind

FDI above 35 = time when FDI is above 35 when at least 4 hours before or after MaxT time

Forecast for Sunday:

Low pressure system moves into the Tasman Sea, leaving a much cooler airmass across the State with a front. Rain areas over central and eastern Victoria contracting eastwards. Isolated showers over the southwest. Just a small chance of thunderstorms in the early hours of the morning in the far northern Mallee/Northern Country/Northeast. A high pressure system will be centered near the Bight by Sunday night. Winds start out northwest again then shift a sharper southwest in the morning hours. NOTE: Forecast rain for overnight Saturday has dropped forecast Drought Factors. Expecting rainfall amounts of 20mm generally in the overnight period into Sunday morning, if those amount do not eventuate at fire weather point locations then the DF will end up higher than forecast.