AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 5:42 am AWST Friday 22 January 2021. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 11.


Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
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Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
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Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
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Past Track and Movement
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Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Winds
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Destructive Winds
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Gale Force Winds
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Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Wind Boundary
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Destructive Wind Boundary
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Gale Force Wind Boundary
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Most Likely Future Track
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Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
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The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Headline:

Rain and wind increasing over the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coasts as tropical low 08U moves south.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: Beagle Bay to Port Hedland, including Broome but not including Port Hedland, extending to the inland Pilbara including Marble Bar and Nullagine.

Watch zone: Inland areas of the east Pilbara including Telfer and Parnngurr.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 17.9 degrees South, 119.8 degrees East , 260 kilometres west of Broome and 295 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: south at 15 kilometres per hour .

Tropical low (08U) is slowly intensifying as it moves in a southerly direction towards the Eighty Mile Beach area and heavy rain is falling in the area. The tropical low may intensify into a tropical cyclone later today as it nears the coast. The most likely path should take it across the coast in the vicinity of Eighty Mile Beach late Friday or early Saturday.


Hazards:

GALES may develop on the coast between Bidyadanga and De Grey from the middle of today, and if the system tracks further east gales could also be experienced in other parts of the warning area north of Bidyadanga. Gales are unlikely at Port Hedland, but remain a small chance at Broome. Gales may extend into inland parts of the east Pilbara on Saturday before the system weakens over land.

Heavy rainfall is occurring in the area between Bidyadanga and De Grey and will extend across inland areas east of Port Hedland during Friday afternoon and evening. As the system moves to the south southeast, heaviest falls will be ahead of the system.

Though the system will weaken after making landfall, strong winds and heavy rainfall are expected to extend into the Interior of WA over the weekend.

A Flood Watch is current for parts of the Kimberley and Pilbara. Please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for further details.


Recommended Action:

DFES advises of the following community alerts (effective as of 6:00am AWST Friday):
BLUE ALERT: People in communities from Beagle Bay to Port Hedland including Broome and extending inland to include Telfer, Marble Bar and Nullagine but not including Port Hedland, need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details:
  Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 5 am January 22 tropical low 17.9S 119.8E 75
+6hr 11 am January 22 tropical low 18.5S 120.0E 105
+12hr 5 pm January 22 1 18.9S 120.2E 125
+18hr 11 pm January 22 1 19.4S 120.6E 140
+24hr 5 am January 23 1 19.9S 121.1E 155
+36hr 5 pm January 23 tropical low 21.1S 122.5E 180
+48hr 5 am January 24 tropical low 22.3S 124.2E 210
+60hr 5 pm January 24 tropical low 23.6S 125.7E 235
+72hr 5 am January 25 tropical low 24.9S 127.8E 265

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Friday