AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 10:30 am WST Tuesday 23 December 2014. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 1.


Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Headline:

Cyclone Watch declared for Cocos Is for developing tropical low


Areas affected:

Warning zone: No active warning areas.

Watch zone: Cocos Islands.


Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am WST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 46 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 9.4 degrees South, 100.5 degrees East , 505 kilometres northeast of Cocos Island .
Movement: south southwest at 4 kilometres per hour .

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday and possibly reach category two intensity by Christmas Day in the vicinity of Cocos Islands.


Hazards:

Gales are not expected on the islands today, but may develop Wednesday night as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk is expected on Thursday (Christmas Day), as the system passes the islands.

Heavy rain is expected Wednesday night and Thursday.


Recommended Action:

The Australian Federal Police advise that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities on Home and West Island should listen for the next advice.

Details:
  Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 8 am December 23 tropical low 9.4S 100.5E 55
+6hr 2 pm December 23 tropical low 9.7S 100.4E 75
+12hr 8 pm December 23 tropical low 10.0S 100.3E 95
+18hr 2 am December 24 tropical low 10.3S 100.0E 110
+24hr 8 am December 24 1 10.6S 99.6E 130
+36hr 8 pm December 24 1 11.2S 98.4E 165
+48hr 8 am December 25 2 11.7S 96.8E 205
+60hr 8 pm December 25 2 12.1S 95.6E 240
+72hr 8 am December 26 2 12.4S 95.0E 280

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Tuesday