The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Cyclone Watch declared for Cocos Is for developing tropical low
Warning zone: No active warning areas.
Watch zone: Cocos Islands.
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near centre 46 kilometres per hour with wind gusts 83 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 9.4 degrees South, 100.5 degrees East , 505 kilometres northeast of Cocos Island .
Movement: south southwest at 4 kilometres per hour .
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday and possibly reach category two intensity by Christmas Day in the vicinity of Cocos Islands.
Gales are not expected on the islands today, but may develop Wednesday night as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk is expected on Thursday (Christmas Day), as the system passes the islands.
Heavy rain is expected Wednesday night and Thursday.
The Australian Federal Police advise that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities on Home and West Island should listen for the next advice.
|Time (WST)||Intensity Category||Latitude
|0hr||8 am December 23||tropical low||9.4S||100.5E||55|
|+6hr||2 pm December 23||tropical low||9.7S||100.4E||75|
|+12hr||8 pm December 23||tropical low||10.0S||100.3E||95|
|+18hr||2 am December 24||tropical low||10.3S||100.0E||110|
|+24hr||8 am December 24||1||10.6S||99.6E||130|
|+36hr||8 pm December 24||1||11.2S||98.4E||165|
|+48hr||8 am December 25||2||11.7S||96.8E||205|
|+60hr||8 pm December 25||2||12.1S||95.6E||240|
|+72hr||8 am December 26||2||12.4S||95.0E||280|
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Tuesday