The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
A Tropical Low well to the west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands is is likely to move further southwest and intensify.
Warning zone: None.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: None.
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 12.5 degrees South, 94.8 degrees East , 225 kilometres west of Cocos Island .
Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .
The developing tropical low is now well to the west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday evening as it tracks further southwest away from Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Gales are no longer expected at Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Gusty northerly winds are currently occurring over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. GALES are no longer expected over the Cocos (Keeling) islands although strong and gusty winds are likely to continue through Saturday afternoon, easing in the evening as the system moves further away from the islands.
Periods of heavy rainfall are expected with the passage of this system, easing during Saturday evening.
The Australian Federal Police advise that an ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION has been issued for communities on Home and West Island. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are likely to continue for the remainder of Saturday and people should take care to avoid dangers caused by any damage.
|Time (AWST)||Intensity Category||Latitude
|0hr||2 pm February 13||tropical low||12.5S||94.8E||85|
|+6hr||8 pm February 13||1||12.9S||94.2E||105|
|+12hr||2 am February 14||1||13.5S||93.5E||130|
|+18hr||8 am February 14||2||14.1S||92.7E||150|
|+24hr||2 pm February 14||2||14.8S||92.0E||175|
|+36hr||2 am February 15||3||16.3S||90.5E||210|
|+48hr||2 pm February 15||3||17.4S||88.8E||245|
|+60hr||2 am February 16||3||18.3S||87.0E||280|
|+72hr||2 pm February 16||3||18.9S||85.1E||320|
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Saturday