AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 2:44 pm AWST Saturday 13 February 2016. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.


Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
example of orange colour
Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
example of yellow colour

Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Past Track and Movement
example of track

Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
example of region
Gale Force Winds
example of region

Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
example of icon
Very Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Destructive Wind Boundary
example of region
Gale Force Wind Boundary
example of region
Most Likely Future Track
example of track
Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
example of region

The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Headline:

A Tropical Low well to the west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands is is likely to move further southwest and intensify.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 12.5 degrees South, 94.8 degrees East , 225 kilometres west of Cocos Island .
Movement: southwest at 16 kilometres per hour .

The developing tropical low is now well to the west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday evening as it tracks further southwest away from Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Gales are no longer expected at Cocos (Keeling) Islands.


Hazards:

Gusty northerly winds are currently occurring over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. GALES are no longer expected over the Cocos (Keeling) islands although strong and gusty winds are likely to continue through Saturday afternoon, easing in the evening as the system moves further away from the islands.

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected with the passage of this system, easing during Saturday evening.


Recommended Action:

The Australian Federal Police advise that an ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION has been issued for communities on Home and West Island. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall are likely to continue for the remainder of Saturday and people should take care to avoid dangers caused by any damage.

Details:
  Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 pm February 13 tropical low 12.5S 94.8E 85
+6hr 8 pm February 13 1 12.9S 94.2E 105
+12hr 2 am February 14 1 13.5S 93.5E 130
+18hr 8 am February 14 2 14.1S 92.7E 150
+24hr 2 pm February 14 2 14.8S 92.0E 175
+36hr 2 am February 15 3 16.3S 90.5E 210
+48hr 2 pm February 15 3 17.4S 88.8E 245
+60hr 2 am February 16 3 18.3S 87.0E 280
+72hr 2 pm February 16 3 18.9S 85.1E 320

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Saturday