The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.
Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.
This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.
Rain and strong winds are occurring on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands as a Tropical Cyclone Warning continues.
Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Watch zone: None.
Cancelled zones: None.
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South, 96.5 degrees East , 105 kilometres north northwest of Cocos Island .
Movement: southwest at 12 kilometres per hour .
The developing tropical low is expected to pass northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during Saturday morning and develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday afternoon. Gales may develop to the south of the system prior to it developing into a tropical cyclone.
Rain with strong and gusty east to northeast winds are currently occurring over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop over the islands during Saturday morning as the system passes to the northwest and then to the west. Conditions should ease during Saturday afternoon and evening as the system moves further away from the islands.
Periods of heavy rainfall are expected with the passage of this system, easing during Saturday evening.
The Australian Federal Police advise that a BLUE ALERT is current for communities on Home and West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
People on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for the next advice.
In a life threatening situation call 000 or use VHF Channel 20.
|Time (AWST)||Intensity Category||Latitude
|0hr||11 pm February 12||tropical low||11.3S||96.5E||85|
|+6hr||5 am February 13||tropical low||11.7S||96.0E||105|
|+12hr||11 am February 13||tropical low||12.1S||95.4E||130|
|+18hr||5 pm February 13||1||12.7S||94.9E||150|
|+24hr||11 pm February 13||1||13.2S||94.2E||175|
|+36hr||11 am February 14||2||14.5S||92.6E||210|
|+48hr||11 pm February 14||2||16.0S||90.9E||245|
|+60hr||11 am February 15||3||17.3S||89.0E||280|
|+72hr||11 pm February 15||3||18.3S||87.2E||320|
Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday