AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low

Issued at 11:38 pm AWST Friday 12 February 2016. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 5.


Community Threat

Warning Zone
Gales within 24 hours
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Watch Zone
Gales from 24-48 hours
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Past Cyclone Details

Past Location and Intensity Number
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Past Track and Movement
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Current Cyclone Details

Current Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Winds
example of region
Destructive Winds
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Gale Force Winds
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Forecast Cyclone Details
(Up to 72 hours from time of issue)

Forecast Location and Intensity Number
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Very Destructive Wind Boundary
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Destructive Wind Boundary
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Gale Force Wind Boundary
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Most Likely Future Track
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Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
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The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Headline:

Rain and strong winds are occurring on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands as a Tropical Cyclone Warning continues.


Areas affected:

Warning zone: Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 11.3 degrees South, 96.5 degrees East , 105 kilometres north northwest of Cocos Island .
Movement: southwest at 12 kilometres per hour .

The developing tropical low is expected to pass northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during Saturday morning and develop into a tropical cyclone during Saturday afternoon. Gales may develop to the south of the system prior to it developing into a tropical cyclone.


Hazards:

Rain with strong and gusty east to northeast winds are currently occurring over the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop over the islands during Saturday morning as the system passes to the northwest and then to the west. Conditions should ease during Saturday afternoon and evening as the system moves further away from the islands.

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected with the passage of this system, easing during Saturday evening.


Recommended Action:

The Australian Federal Police advise that a BLUE ALERT is current for communities on Home and West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

People on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for the next advice.

In a life threatening situation call 000 or use VHF Channel 20.

Details:
  Time (AWST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 11 pm February 12 tropical low 11.3S 96.5E 85
+6hr 5 am February 13 tropical low 11.7S 96.0E 105
+12hr 11 am February 13 tropical low 12.1S 95.4E 130
+18hr 5 pm February 13 1 12.7S 94.9E 150
+24hr 11 pm February 13 1 13.2S 94.2E 175
+36hr 11 am February 14 2 14.5S 92.6E 210
+48hr 11 pm February 14 2 16.0S 90.9E 245
+60hr 11 am February 15 3 17.3S 89.0E 280
+72hr 11 pm February 15 3 18.3S 87.2E 320

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday